The BC NDP’s path to a majority government could see the party pick up as many as 14 seats in the 2020 provincial election.
Global News has projected the party to win in eight of those, while the party is leading by a slimmer margin in another six. The final results won’t be known for more than two weeks when about 525,000 mail-in ballots and 75,000 absentee ballots are counted.
Some of the NDP pickups are in territory where they have won before, while others are unprecedented in B.C. political history.
Charted territory
A few of the seats the NDP flipped on Saturday, according to Global News projections, were seats they’ve held in the past, if not recent memory.
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, where former MP Fin Donnelly unseated BC Liberal incumbent Joan Isaacs, is the best example. It was the closest race of 2017 when Isaacs won by just 87 votes.
But the NDP won it as recently as 2015 when they picked it up in a byelection.
Former Victoria MP Murray Rankin picked up Oak Bay-Gordon Head, former-BC Green leader Andrew Weaver’s riding.
Weaver held the riding since 2013 when the Greens made their first provincial breakthrough but didn’t run again and Green Nicole Duncan wasn’t able to repeat the performance.
BC Liberal Ida Chong held it before Weaver, but the NDP won in a 1989 byelection and 1991.
Newcomer Roly Russell picked up Boundary-Similkameen over BC Liberal Petra Veintimilla, after incumbent Linda Larson opted not to run again. This has been solid BC Liberal territory since 1996, but the NDP’s Bill Barlee won the seat in a 1988 byelection and again in 1991.
The win is notable as the only pickup the party made outside of the Lower Mainland or Vancouver Island.
New Democrats also scored a notable upset in North Vancouver-Seymour, a riding they haven’t won since 1972.
The NDP’s Susie Chant unseated Liberal Jane Thornthwaite, in a race that was coloured by a sexist joke the incumbent was recorded making about rival North Vancouver-Lonsdale candidate Bowinn Ma.
The win means the NDP now controls two of the four seats on the North Shore, an area that has traditionally been a BC Liberal stronghold.
Breakthrough territory
While some of the NDP flips were seats they’ve held in the past — if not recently — others raised eyebrows among B.C. political junkies.
No projected win fits this category as much as Chilliwack where Chilliwack Board of Education chair Dan Coulter unseated BC Liberal incumbent John Martin.
The NDP has never won in the south Fraser Valley before.
Coulter benefitted from a split on the right, with well-known Chilliwack city councillor Dianne Janzen pulling a double-digit share of the vote for the BC Conservatives.
Langley was another shocker, where Andrew Mercier unseated BC Liberal veteran and former cabinet minister Mary Polak.
While New Democrats have never won here before, changing demographics and urbanization in the riding, along with the NDP’s promise to complete SkyTrain construction to Langley City Centre appear to have won the day.
BC Conservative Shelley Jan also did well here, but with all ballot boxes counted her 1,392 votes still wouldn’t have been enough to push Polak over the top. That could change when mail-in ballots are tallied.
In Surrey-Cloverdale, former Surrey city councillor and firefighter Mike Starchuk unseated Liberal incumbent Marvin Hunt.
The NDP have never won this riding since its creation in 1991.
The NDP is also looking at an unprecedented breakthrough in Richmond, where they are projected to have won one seat and are leading in two others.
Aman Singh is projected to have unseated BC Liberal incumbent Jas Johal in Richmond-Queensborough.
It is a relatively new Richmond riding, first contested in 2017 when Singh, a human rights lawyer, finished just 136 votes behind Johal. It is perhaps the most NDP-friendly Richmond riding, containing a chunk of New Westminster.
Johal, however, has been one of the most visible BC Liberal faces and has been talked about as a potential future party leader.
Possible pickups
There remain another seven races where, with all the ballot boxes counted, the NDP continues to lead the BC Liberals.
Those leads may even increase, if pollsters are correct. The final pre-election Ipsos poll commissioned by Global News found mail-in voters had favoured the NDP over the BC Liberals 57 per cent to 29 per cent.
In Vancouver-False Creek, the NPD’s Brenda Bailey had a 783-vote lead over Liberal incumbent Sam Sullivan. Sullivan’s 2017 victory was one of the closest in the election.
In Richmond South Centre, the NDP’s Henry Yao had a razor-thin 187-vote lead over former Olympic snowboarder and BC Liberal Alexa Loo.
In Richmond-Steveston, the NDP’s Kelly Greene had a 596-vote lead over BC Liberal Matt Pitcairn.
Langley-East, another riding the NDP has never come close to winning, could turn out to be a shocker. New Democrat Megan Dykeman led Liberal Margaret Kunst by 793 votes.
The BC Conservatives may have played spoiler here, with Ryan Warawa, son of former Conservative MP Mark Warawa, winning more than 2,600 votes.
The NDP’s SkyTrain promises combined with criticism of Kunst over her rejection of a rainbow crosswalk at city council may have played a role.
In Chilliwack-Kent the NDP’s Kelli Paddon may have run up the middle to win. She was leading former BC Liberal (now independent) Laurie Throness by 195 votes, while independent and city councillor Jason Lum won more than 3,800 votes.
Throness infamously resigned from the Liberals during the campaign following comments he made comparing birth control to eugenics.
And in Parksville-Qualicum, the NDP’s Adam Walker led Liberal incumbent and former cabinet minister Michelle Stilwell by 942 votes.