B.C. election 2020: NDP maintains big lead ahead of leaders’ debate, poll suggests

The BC NDP continues to be in good shape to win a majority government, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News.

The poll, released ahead of Tuesday evening’s televised leaders’ debate, found 52 per cent of decided voters say they will vote for the NDP, compared to 34 per cent for the BC Liberals and 11 per cent for the BC Greens.

The 18-per cent gap remains from an Ipsos poll conducted two weeks ago. The one glimmer of hope for the BC Liberals is the number of undecided voters, with 27 per cent of the electorate yet to make up their minds.

The NDP is strong among all demographics and regions. Fifty-three per cent of voters 55 and older are planning on voting New Democrat, the poll found. The BC Liberals are at 36 per cent among older voters.

BC NDP Leader John Horgan continues to be popular among women, with 59 per cent saying they will vote NDP compared to 28 per cent favouring the BC Liberals. Among men, 46 per cent plan on voting NDP with 39 per cent planning to vote Liberal.

One of the clear signs of a possible NDP majority is the party’s strength in Metro Vancouver. Horgan and the NDP have a 23-point lead over the Liberals in the seat-rich riding (56 per cent for the NDP versus 33 per cent for the Liberals). The NDP also leads the Liberals 54 per cent to 25 per cent on Vancouver Island.

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The two parties are close in B.C.’s Southern Interior and the north with the NDP leading 44 per cent to 42 per cent.

1:46 New poll reveals which party B.C. voters would choose on major issues

The Green Party does best on Vancouver Island, where it has 17-per cent support.

“There continues to be little appetite for change in this election,” said Ipsos vice-president Kyle Braid.

“The first half of this election campaign has done nothing to shake up views of who would make the best premier of B.C.”

Horgan is leading by a wide margin on the question of who is best to lead the province, with 45 per cent of respondents saying he would make the best premier.

BC Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson is seen as the best choice for premier by 16 per cent and six per cent prefer BC Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau.

When it comes to issues, the NDP is seen as doing the best job on everything from COVID-19 to education to the opioid crisis.

Horgan enjoys his biggest lead on the question of who is best served to handle the COVID-19 crisis. Nearly half of the electorate believes John Horgan is best suited to handle the pandemic, compared to 14 per cent for Wilkinson and five per cent for Furstenau.

The NDP is the top choice of health care (47 per cent), housing affordability (39 per cent), social issues (37 per cent), education (37 per cent), the opioid crisis (33 per cent) and jobs and the economy (38 per cent).

The Greens lead the way on climate change, with 36 per cent of voters believing Furstenau can do the best job.

3:24 Ipsos Poll: BC NDP have strong voter support

As for the major campaign promises so far, the Liberals seem to have made a pledge that has resonated most with voters. The commitment to open ICBC up to competition is seen as important for 61 per cent of voters.

The NDP’s $1,000 COVID-19 recovery payment for the lowest income earners is seen as important for 56 per cent of voters. The NDP pledge to freeze rents is deemed important by 55 per cent of voters, while the Liberal pledge to eliminate PST for a year is seen as important for 51 per cent of voters.