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Analyzing the rural and urban vote in Alberta election 2019

Click to play video 'Rural vs. urban vote: How it could play out in the Alberta election' Rural vs. urban vote: How it could play out in the Alberta election
WATCH: Alberta is a very urbanized province with a large number of rural districts. Jenna Freeman takes a look at how some parties are choosing to strategically place candidates in outlying areas, banking on a win – Apr 10, 2019

In 2015, Alberta NDP captured a significant portion of the urban vote and, while the party gained seats in rural ridings, the majority still went to the conservative Wildrose.

In the upcoming election, the Freedom Conservative Party has chosen to strategically target rural Alberta, where leader Derek Fildebrandt believes FCP candidates stand a good chance.

“It’s important to have, in the very least, some Freedom Conservative Party [members] in the opposition to hold the government to account and pull it in a more conservative and Alberta-first direction,” he explained.

“Or to potentially hold the balance of power in a minority government.”

READ MORE: Alberta election Day 19: FCP releases platform and budget

University of Calgary political science associate professor Melanee Thomas says the FCP strategy isn’t a bad one.

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“If people in rural areas were UCP partisans or conservative partisans and not liking something about the party, they’re much more likely to … if there’s a party to the right they can transfer their vote to,” Thomas said.

Watch below: While many small cities and rural ridings in Alberta have always been quite conservative, one policy last term strained rural relations with the NDP. Fletcher Kent explains.

Click to play video 'Where does rural Alberta stand ahead of provincial election' Where does rural Alberta stand ahead of provincial election
Where does rural Alberta stand ahead of provincial election – Apr 10, 2019

She added that despite Alberta being very urbanized, the province still has a lot of rural districts.

“If a party sweeps Edmonton and Calgary completely, they can form government with that.

“If they sweep rural areas, they simply have to pick up one or two in the cities and they’ve got a government.”

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READ MORE: Alberta election promise tracker: Where do the parties stand on the major issues?

Watch below: (From April 12, 2019) Tom Vernon takes a look at how support for the UCP in rural Alberta might affect NDP cabinet ministers who are running outside Calgary and Edmonton.

Click to play video 'How rural support for UCP might affect NDP cabinet ministers running outside Calgary and Edmonton' How rural support for UCP might affect NDP cabinet ministers running outside Calgary and Edmonton
How rural support for UCP might affect NDP cabinet ministers running outside Calgary and Edmonton – Apr 12, 2019

When asked whether Fildebrandt thought his party could be missing out on urban votes in Edmonton, he said that his priority was to place candidates where he didn’t believe the NDP could win.

“We do have a lot of people who have reached out to us disappointed that we don’t have candidates in their areas.

“We’ve encouraged them to hold their nose and vote UCP in those constituencies.”

Ultimately, Thomas believes the 2019 election could play out similarly to 2015, where Calgary voters played a major part in the outcome.

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“It comes down to Calgary. I expect the NDP will hold in Edmonton. I expect the UCP will hold in rural,” she said. “Calgary, like in 2015, is a toss-up.

“The way that Calgary goes, so too does government.”

READ MORE: Elections Alberta says a whopping 140,000 Albertans cast a ballot on Day 1 of advance polling

In 2015, the NDP won 14 of 25 Calgary seats.

The Freedom Conservative Party has 24 candidates running the provincial election. Most have been placed in rural ridings, with several in Calgary and just one in Edmonton.