New projections show that more than 1,000 Albertans could be hospitalized with COVID-19 by Christmastime.
The Alberta Health Services projections from Tuesday show that on the high end of the predictions, 1,094 Albertans will be hospitalized with COVID-19 by Dec. 24. The projections also offer a low-end prediction of 515 hospitalizations and a medium-level prediction of 765 hospitalizations.
The projections also outline that of those people, 194 could be in need of care in intensive care on the high end of the predictions. The projections also offer a low-end prediction of 91 people in ICU and a medium-level prediction of 135 people in ICU.
As of Tuesday afternoon, there were 654 people in hospital across Alberta, 112 of whom were being treated in intensive care. Of the 654 people in hospital, 357 were in Edmonton hospitals.
A spokesperson with AHS said the data is from its early warning system, which is updated numerous times per day. The data is one tool used to predict hospitalization and ICU numbers, to help AHS plan for changes in demand, and indicates where projected occupancy is trending at any given time, Kerry Williamson said.
“The hope and belief is that the measures announced yesterday will help to bend the curve, and reduce pressure on our healthcare system,” Williamson said.
Premier Jason Kenney has previously said that AHS always maintains these two-week predictions for surges or any kind of illness, particularly a communicable one of this nature.
Health Minister Tyler Shandro added Wednesday that the data has allowed the province to respond effectively throughout the pandemic. He added that he is concerned by the rising COVID-19 hospitalization numbers.
“Unfortunately, it does take time for public health measures to show an effect in our case counts and even after case count starts to go down, we will still continue, even for two weeks after that, to see increases in our hospitalizations, that is to be expected,” he said.
“We are ready, AHS is ready and they continue to be prepared to make sure that everybody who needs critical care will get that care. There may be times when there may be surgical procedures which are postponed as result, as we have started to see in Edmonton.”
AHS announced last week that it plans to expand its ICU capacity in Alberta to a total of 425 beds. In the coming weeks, about 2,250 acute care beds will also be allocated for patients with COVID-19 across Alberta, AHS said.
“This is much higher than the worst-case scenario of 194 required ICU beds – and the 1,094 required acute care beds – forecast by the early warning system tool,” Williamson said.
“Our ICU occupancy is very high, and we thank our incredible frontline teams for the care they are providing in challenging circumstances.”
Williamson said Wednesday that in Edmonton, 51 additional critical care beds have opened in the past three weeks.
Dr. Craig Jenne, an infectious disease specialist from the University of Calgary, said he was a bit confused by the wide range in the projections in the ICU admissions.
“The people in intensive care now are likely the people who were exposed to the virus two to three weeks ago when cases were about 1,000. And now we’re close to the 2,000-new-cases-a-day mark and these people will be the ICU admissions around Christmastime.
“I don’t see the data that they put into the original model but looking at the growth of cases in the community and the anticipated growth in the ICU, it’s going to be in the mid- to high-predictive range of that particular model.
“I think it’s very unlikely to be in the low range… and the low range is really where we need it to be after the restrictions take effect and that, for ICU, is likely six to seven weeks down the road.”
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Dr. Darren Markland, who works in the ICU at Edmonton’s Royal Alexandra Hospital, said hospital admissions have progressed “in a completely predicted fashion, if not a little faster,” in the past week.
“The Royal Alexandra Hospital has over 100 COVID patients in it. We have multiple COVID wards. Our physicians and staff are doing a remarkable job but it’s a very sick group of patients who could decompensate very quickly,” he said Wednesday morning.
“I’m on tonight and I will not stop moving because they can go from just requiring some oxygen to incredibly unwell very quickly and as the numbers go up and the proportion of people — the ratios of care start to go down — it sometimes gets hard to keep track of these things.”
Markland said hospital projections have been part of the pandemic planning since the beginning, but added they “desperately never wanted to get there.”
“We know that we can do these things, they’re possible, but they come with significant issues, not just for the ICU but for the rest of the hospital. These resources have to come from somewhere and also these supplies have to come from somewhere. And even though, again, AHS has done a remarkable job getting stuff in advance, we are going to look at significant changes in the way that we have to deliver care and make some very challenging choices about who will benefit from this as well.”
The new hospitalization projections come as the premier announced sweeping new measures Tuesday afternoon aimed at bending the COVID-19 curve in Alberta.
Effective Tuesday, masks are now mandatory in all indoor public spaces and workplaces across the province, with the exception of farm operations and rental accommodations. Also effective immediately, all outdoor social gatherings are banned, on top of the ban that was already in place for indoor social gatherings.
Effective Sunday, there is a 15 per cent capacity limit for retail and grocery stores, as well as places of worship. All restaurants, bars, pubs and cafes must close in-person dining but can still offer takeout. All entertainment venues, recreation facilities, casinos, personal and wellness services must close, also effective this coming Sunday.
The measures are set to be in place for at least four weeks, Kenney said.
Also Tuesday, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health announced that upwards of 60 per cent of non-urgent scheduled surgeries that require a hospital stay in the Edmonton zone will be postponed. Diagnostic imaging or other clinical support services could be reduced by as much as 40 per cent, Dr. Deena Hinhsaw said.
Ambulatory visits and procedures will also be reduced as needed to support the rising demands, Hinshaw said.
As of Tuesday afternoon there were 20,388 active cases of COVID-19 in Alberta.
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