Even though the most recent GDP reports show a technical recession, the Bank of Canada and several economists aren’t ready to declare one formally just yet.
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at the central bank spoke at a House of Commons committee on Monday, and answered questions about Canada’s economy following Friday’s GDP report.
“I think we need to be careful not to put too much weight in any one indicator,” she said.
Many economists have also challenged the recession label, arguing the recent slump doesn’t have the depth or breadth to meet that bar.
“While there will be plenty of debate over whether this constitutes a recession (we would say ‘no, not really’), there is little debate that the economy has struggled to make any headway over the past year amid the ongoing trade conflict,” said chief economist Doug Porter at the Bank of Montreal in a note to clients sent on Friday.
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Global News at 6 Toronto: May 29, 2026
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre spoke in front of the House of Commons on Monday and said Canadians need answers about why Canada has the only shrinking economy in the G7.
Carney was scheduled to tour a construction site in Ottawa Monday and was not present for question period in the House of Commons.
“You would expect him to be there, to be accountable, to show his incredible economic brilliance, but he’s not showing up for question period,” Poilievre said.
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Poilievre then addressed Mr. Carney in saying, “Be accountable for your recession.”
Poilievre also dismissed assessments pushing back on the recession label as coming from “Liberal commentators and economists.”
What is a recession?
A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, measured by the GDP.
The annualized rate of GDP in the final three months of 2025 was a drop of one per cent, and in the first quarter of 2026, it was down by 0.1 per cent.
But GDP data is one of multiple indicators and ways to analyze economic health, and Rogers says there is much more that needs to be taken into account.
“You need to look at employment, you need to look at some of the more leading indicators.”
This means that a recession can be measured by the technical definition seen in GDP reports, but others say it should take into account the job market and consumer price movements and inflation, as well as import and export data and reports on business investment among others.
Canada’s unemployment rate was measured at 6.9 per cent in the month of April, which was up 0.2 per cent from the month prior, and 18,000 jobs were also lost. This means the job market, seemingly, continues to struggle.
Inflation in April spiked to 2.8 per cent, which Statistics Canada says was largely due to higher gas prices.
In addition, core inflation, which strips away volatile food and energy prices, actually declined from 2.2 per cent in March to two per cent in April. The Bank of Canada’s target range for inflation is between one and three per cent.
Scotiabank chief economist Derek Holt noted that harsh winter weather and tariff-induced trade swings were spurring volatility in the recent economic data. Imports of gold were also sharply higher in the first quarter and dragged GDP lower.
“It would be irresponsible to make a recession call on the basis of surging gold imports that are idiosyncratic in nature versus reflective of underlying activity in the economy,” Holt said.
Rogers said another indicator that a “recession” label may be premature is the outlook for the next GDP report.
“We know, for example, that the flash data for April, which is the early warning GDP for April, it tell us there’s been a bit of a rebound.”
Economists widely expect the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future, but if the economy continues to show signs it is struggling, then further cuts could be the result.
–with files from The Canadian Press.
After more than a decade of increasingly left-wing economic policies, massive government spending, growing regulation, rising debt, and immigration levels far beyond what housing, infrastructure, healthcare, and wages could absorb, some economic consequences were inevitable.
A civilized country should help the poor. It should support farmers during hard years. It should help strategic industries when necessary. Few reasonable people object to that.
But there is a difference between helping people and building an economy around dependency, bureaucracy, and endless government intervention.
Canada is now seeing the bill arrive.
And I fear we have only seen the beginning.
Of course we’re in a recession. The only way it’s not immediately obvious is if you make all your money on stocks, and historically speaking? Stocks are always doing their absolute best right before a crash. Look up what the markets looked like before the dot com bubble crash. Identical trends.
Finance people are sitting pretty because they don’t have to feel the pain of a failing economy, the velocity of money has been steadily decreasing year by year. GDP looks great because the stock market looks great, but the stock market isn’t a good indicator for economic health in the REAL economy (every day goods and services) anymore.
I would challenge economists to find even one indicator that doesnt point to recession
Given the Carney has has some form of control over the Canadian economy for over 5 years, first as Trudeau’s economic advisor and now as PM, it has become glaringly obvious, at least to anyone who doesn’t have TDS, that Carney is an abject failure and that his policies are terrible and result in higher inflation and a spiralling down economy. The time has come for people to recognize this and remove this disastrous Carney Liberal government.
Canada…if we do not like the outcome of something, we redefine the word.
Of course we are in a recession. Even Mark (recession) Carney is now admitting it. Everywhere Carney is in charge either has higher inflation or ends in recession. His policies are tested and have failed time and time again. But, the elbozos just HAD to give him Canada to complete his resume of failure.
Guys were NOT in a recession and if we were its NOT because 10 million people were imported. I know for a fact because the BOC said so
Wow, just cannot call a spade a spade. These jokers bandy all around the thing. Yes, we are in a recession and that by their own definition! All the distractions didn’t work Carney! Canada and Canadians can see right through your rotten toothed, grinning fascist skull.
@anonymous, that’s hilarious…you have such a strong belief but can’t put your name to the comment, that’s says all we need to know about you
We’ve been in a recession since 2020 when carney became turdeaus top advisor. Canada’s GDP per capita has cratered
Economists word salad.
@Anonymous. PP is responsible for the poor decisions the Liberals govt made the past decade. He also doesn’t own the Mansion it is a home provided to the Leader of The Opposition. Carney get one also.
Who gives a f? Seriously the cost of living has easily quadrupled in the last 20 years while QOL has diminished significantly. I don’t care about Canada’s economy, it has no indicators of what our people are going through. The economy is doing great? Gov just gives it away to whatever liberal agenda they support today. Economy is in the toilet? They’re subsidizing the rich to keep their profits at record levels. The liberals suck.
PP says everything is horrible so it must be outside his mansion we pay for.
Yes look at employment. Remove AB and its negative… the AB that Carney has been fighting so hard to not allow economic growth.
Spare me the government cover. The economy is AT LEAST flat. And is the worst performing in the G7. We’d be in a deep recession if not for high levels of government debt temporarily goosing GDP numbers. Feel free to dispute these obvious truths. The economy isn’t healthy.
Carney promised Canada would have the best economy in the G7, currently it is the worst. Elbows Up
Yes, we’re in a recession. The definition is two quarters of negative GDP growth. But the leftist media like to conjure up these bu**sh it articles to downplay things becuase we have had this useless Liberal government for a decade now, and the media is literally paid off by said Liberals. F *ck off, Ariel Rabinovitch.
Carney has been a total flop now over 1 year as PM. Trying to wash away the evidence that he was Trudeau’s Economic Advisor from 2020 – 2025.
Fu boc
So, Carolyn Rogers of BOC acknowledges that we are in a technical recession (due to 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), but…
“I think we need to be careful not to put too much weight in any one indicator,”
“You need to look at employment, you need to look at some of the more leading indicators.”
Then the article continues and says that unemployment rate is UP 0.2 per cent to 6.9 per cent.
The article also continues and says that inflation spiked to 2.8 per cent.
Seems to me that ALL the indicators are telling us that Canada is in a recession, not just a technical recession.
When the T.O condo/housing market slows its a recession..it happened 18 months ago. Gov. is always last to admit it.Recession will last the rest of trump term
this is why Alberta needs to leave this cluster f of a communist government
The economy is Canada is performing poorly in many areas and has been for
quite some time. Canada has had the slowest growth coming out of COVID. If the Canadian Govt just wants to blame Trump why was Canada economic growth so meagre under Biden.
Work in the film and television industry here in Vancouver is booming. The company I work for can barely keep up with all of new projects being filmed here in Vancouver right now. The team I work with has be filming God Of War since earlier this spring and we already have another project lined up for August
Seems illogical to say shrinking GDP doesn’t constitute recession. And GDP is what pays the bills…. so shrinking would be a negative result, right economists. And even worse is that this has been ongoing for over a decade.
“The budget will balance itself”- famous idiot who didn’t know his father
Funny how when one set of data supports certain groups they wear it like a glove, but when it doesn’t they say there is more than one factor to consider or think about. Applies to the Lieberals, BOC, natives, take your pick
The BoC is just trying to cover its own ass