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Canada slips into technical recession as economy stalls in Q1: StatCan

Click to play video: 'Bank of Canada expects Canada’s GDP to expand 1.2% in 2026, projects figures for next 2 years'
Bank of Canada expects Canada’s GDP to expand 1.2% in 2026, projects figures for next 2 years
The Bank of Canada latest economic forecast expects Canada's GDP to rise 1.2 per cent this year, 1.6 per cent next year, and 1.7 per cent in 2028. "Our forecast for GDP growth in Canada has not changed significantly since our January projection. The conflict in the Middle East will affect the composition of growth, but the impact on overall growth is expected to be small, because higher global oil prices will increase the value of our energy exports, even as they squeeze consumers and many businesses," Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Wednesday – Apr 29, 2026

The Canadian economy is in a “vulnerable position,” according to at least one economist, after the latest GDP data revealed a technical recession.

Statistics Canada said Friday that GDP in the first quarter of 2026 fell 0.1 per cent on an annualized rate, and follows a revised one per cent annualized decline in the fourth quarter of 2025. A technical recession is most commonly defined as two consecutive quarters with negative economic growth.

Friday’s release came as a surprise to some economists, who were expecting to see a positive result for the quarter.

“First-quarter growth was a disappointment. We’re certainly in a vulnerable position, with some of the key engines of growth beginning to sputter,” said principle economist Andrew DiCapua of the Business Data Lab and Canadian Chamber of Commerce in a statement.

“April shows some hope, but this does not set the economy up for the growth we had expected this year.”

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The statement added: “The outlook remains choppy.”

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On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the agency says growth was essentially unchanged, but small movements in quarterly figures are magnified when converted into annualized rates. Real GDP declined last October and in March, but growth was either flat or positive in the four months in between.

“The Canadian economy continued to struggle in the first quarter, as GDP posted another decline,” said Katherine Judge at CIBC Economics in a statement.

“The 0.1 per cent annualized drop was in stark contrast to the consensus for a rebound to 1.5 per cent.”

Judge highlights how there were sizeable drops in business and residential investment as well as government spending. She adds that this was the fifth straight drop in business investment amid uncertainty brought on by trade war and U.S. tariffs.

Statistics Canada mainly blames higher imports of gold and a weak month for Canada’s resource extraction industries in March for dragging down recent economic activity.

Exports fell 0.1 per cent overall in the first three months of the year, even as Canada’s oil sector increased shipments of crude oil products and natural gas. Statistics Canada says declines in exports of passenger vehicles and lights trucks offset most of those gains as the sector continues to get hit by U.S. tariffs.

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Friday’s release comes one day after the Bank of Canada said the economy is facing a “volatile” global environment and is vulnerable to shocks as households and businesses continue to struggle.

The agency’s early estimates for real GDP in April call for a sharp rebound to 0.4 per cent growth in the month as the mining, quarrying and oil and gas sectors returned to growth.

– With files from The Canadian Press

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