Saturday will signal the six-month mark since the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in Alberta.
The first COVID-19 test was done in Alberta on Jan. 20 but the province didn’t have its first case until March 5.
Overall, April and August have seen the largest spikes in case numbers. However, the number of tests being completed has also increased significantly, which factors in to overall numbers.
It’s also important to note Alberta isn’t seeing a huge spike in hospitalizations, he said.
“We’re not seeing our intensive care units get anywhere near capacity… so that’s good news,” Jenne added.
He said other variables, including which phase of re-opening Alberta was in, should also be considered when comparing numbers over time.
“Cases are up — still lagging a bit behind where they were in April — but in April, we were locked down,” Jenne said.
“They are ticking up and they’re only as stable as we continue doing what we’re doing.”
Here, we break down the numbers more closely.
Case numbers by month
The first case was reported March 5. By the end of that month, there were 871 cases confirmed. Mid-March is when many companies shifted to work-from-home policies. On March 14, the City of Edmonton closed rec centres, playgrounds and golf courses.
On March 15, the provincial government cancelled all school classes and daycares. On March 27, the province announced many non-essential businesses would have to temporarily close.
In April, the total number of new cases soared. There were 4,702 new cases confirmed that month, an increase of 640 per cent.
In May, 1,471 new cases were confirmed.
The first phases of Stage 1 of Alberta’s relaunch plan came into effect May 4.
In June, the number of cases confirmed was 1,094.
Alberta entered Stage 2 of the relaunch plan on June 12.
In July, there were 2,802 cases of COVID-19 confirmed.
In August, there were 3,126 cases reported, which represented a 135 per cent increase month over month.
Two trends that Jenne has noticed over the six-month period is that transmission has moved away from being mostly linked to travel — or large outbreaks connected to someone who had travelled.
“Now these outbreaks are popping up in multiple areas,” he said. “Now, basically, everything is community spread.”
Another shift? The age of Albertans making up the majority of cases has become younger.
“The demographic has shifted,” Jenne said. “We’re seeing a lot more virus in young people.”
That means our rates can be attributed more to a change in Albertans’ actions and choices of activities than any changes in how the virus is operating.
“It’s likely more to do with human behaviour than the virus itself.”
Lab testing rates
For perspective, when case numbers spiked in April, there were 98,000 tests completed in Alberta labs, a positive rate of 4.8 per cent.
In August, more than 279,000 tests were completed, resulting in more than 3,000 positive tests, a positive test rate of just over one per cent.
There were a number of measures introduced over that six-month period — factors that likely impacted case numbers and should be considered for context. Asymptomatic testing was introduced, face masks were made mandatory in public in some cities, and businesses were closed and re-opened with capacity and physical distancing restrictions.
“Even within a given province, we are often comparing apples to oranges,” Jenne said.
Between Jan. 20 and Feb. 29, about 265 COVID-19 tests were completed.
Between March 1 and March 31, 53,099 tests were done.
Between April 1 and April 30, 98,520 were done.
Between May 1 and May 31, 110,063 tests were completed.
Between June and June 30, 194,493 tests were done.
Between July 1 and July 31, 240,449 tests were done.
Between Aug. 1 and Aug. 31, 279,527 tests were completed.
Reason for optimism
Jenne is the first to admit that among his colleagues, he’s not considered to be generally optimistic. However, he told Global News he’s confident there will be a vaccine for COVID-19 available in Canada by late spring/early summer 2021.
“This is where most of us are optimistic,” he said.
“I think it’s a realistic optimism” that a vaccine could be approved by Health Canada, manufactured and distributed to Canadians by May or June.
He pointed out a couple of positive signs.
“Canada has been proactive in securing contracts… We have already pre-purchased the medical supplies we need… and distributed them across the country.”
Jenne also said the rate the novel coronavirus mutates is slower than influenza, meaning people likely won’t need an annual immunization but perhaps one every few years. Also, “future iterations of the vaccine are likely to be much faster” since the virus itself seems to change more slowly, Jenne said.
While waiting for a vaccine, Jenne points out new steroid therapies are being discovered that appear to highly effective for those suffering the most severe health outcomes from COVID-19.
This too shall pass
Jenne acknowledges what Albertans have given up over the last six months — emotional, economic, mental sacrifices, giving up special events and milestones like weddings, funerals and graduations, foregoing trips and lost jobs and income.
But, he says, it won’t be like this forever if we can stay the course and make smart decisions.
“We’re only making sacrifices in the short term.
“I know a year sounds like a long time… but it’s really not when you’re talking about combating a global pandemic.
“It’s short-term. We will be out of this spring, early summer, once we get a vaccine,” he stressed.
“That will make the sacrifice of this year worth it.”
The big picture
Compared to other parts of the world, Canada has done well to flatten the curve and keep transmission rates relatively low. But that can be a double-edged sword, Jenne explains.
“Early on, there may have been more of a panic-type response in the community.
“I think there’s a much better understanding of the virus now,” he said.
“We benefit in Canada as a whole — even in Alberta — with this feeling that the virus isn’t that bad and that’s because we’ve done such a good job at containing it. We don’t have to look far to see how bad it could be.”
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Jenne mentioned Italy and the southern U.S., where doctors had to triage patients based on age when their health systems were overrun.
“We’re putting up 10 times fewer deaths than what the U.S. has reported,” Jenne said, which has given some Canadians a false sense of security, in some ways.
But the measures we’ve put in place have made a difference, he said.
“If we take that big step back… we’ve done well. We’ve protected our neighbours, we’ve protected our family,” Jenne said.
“We are seeing the dividends of that. We have more of our fellow Albertans with us today because of that.”
What will fall and winter bring?
Alberta has not yet experienced a fall with COVID-19. Jenne says it’s hard to forecast what the change in season will mean for case rates and transmission.
“We don’t know,” he said. “We have had some inaccuracies when we’ve tired to model COVID based on other infectious disease like the flu.
“What the actual number is going to be is very difficult to predict.”
However, as more people move indoors, schools start up again and some people return to the office for work, Jenne says there’s a “high likelihood of increasing number of cases,” outbreaks and school closures. Still, he feels Alberta is prepared.
“What we’re going to see this fall really depends on how each of us takes the new normal guidance, the new normal public health measures indoors with us as we start to spend more time indoors,” Alberta’s chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw said on Wednesday.
Continue to spend time outdoors when possible, she suggested, but when winter prevents that, be smart.
“I would really just recommend that people consider keeping gatherings indoors small, making sure that distancing is a part of the gathering, making sure that people are supported if they are feeling sick to not attend the gathering, making sure that there’s notes taken about who’s present so that if there is someone who happens to be infectious at that time without knowing it and then they’re later diagnosed, there can be very quick tracing of anyone who was there.”
Everyone can do their part, she said.
“It’s possible we may see an increase in our cases this fall as we all move indoors but that remains in our hands.
“The more we’re able to follow these public health measures — whether outdoors or indoors — the more we’ll be able to keep our numbers relatively flat,” Hinshaw stressed.
“Our attempt is to flatten our curve, which means keeping our cases relatively stable over time, not overwhelming our system and protecting those who are most vulnerable to the severe impacts.”
Lessons and takeaways
“Pandemic fatigue is a very real thing,” Hinshaw said Thursday. “COVID-19 has taken many things away from us.”
Alberta’s top doctor said she understands, six months in, that people are over it, frustrated and just want things to go back to normal.
“I sympathize. I too wish it would just go away,” Hinshaw said. “I think the best thing we can do when we’re feeling like we’re at the end of our rope is to figure out what helps us recharge… try to take a break from COVID-19 for a while, try to unplug and relax.
“Unfortunately, the reality is we need to pace ourselves.
“We need to be looking for a time when we either have an effective and safe vaccine or an effective treatment that can reduce severe outcomes for those who get very ill. Until that time comes, we continue to be each other’s best protection.”
It’s hard not to get caught up in the minutia — the data and statistics and recommendations that seem to change every day — and the politics. But Jenne’s overall message to Albertans is a broad, overarching one.
“We need a little more common sense as to what’s a wise move and what’s not a wise move in a time of infectious disease in the public.
“What is the risk of attending X, Y, Z? Not only to me but to my cohort?”
Jenne hopes people use common sense to weigh the risks of their potential actions — to their family, their cohort, their cohort’s family, and the general community.
“I don’t know that people are evaluating that when they make decisions.”
“It’s not really the black and white of what’s essential and what’s not essential… We need to be able to identify: is it worthwhile to go to an outdoor party with 500 people?”
Using science and common sense, Jenne is confident Albertans can hang in there until spring or summer 2021.
“We’ll make it to the vaccine.”
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