The Liberal Party of Canada is slated to form a minority government after winning Monday’s election.
As of 1 a.m. ET, Liberals had 155 out of 338 seats in the House of Commons. This will be the second mandate for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, but the party will face a set of new challenges, namely working with other parties in a minority situation.
Here’s a look at the promises the party made to help them get re-elected — and the ones that will be the most difficult to keep.
One of the biggest challenges the Liberals will face, Angela Carter, an associate professor of political science at the University of Waterloo, told Global News, is fulfilling promises on climate change.
Carter explained that the Liberals are still far from fulfilling the Paris climate change agreement pledge to reduce its emissions by 2030 to 30 per cent of 2005 levels.
“Based on what I’m seeing, in terms of policies that have been revealed during the campaign period, I just don’t see how they’re going to be able to make that 2030 target,” Carter said.
Along with the 2030 target, Trudeau promised during the campaign to make Canada’s carbon emissions net-zero by 2050. The party did not include details of how they plan to do that or if penalties would be put in place.
While noting that some of the Liberals’ commitments, such as making climate targets legally-binding, are promising, she said there is one key issue the party has not addressed.
“It doesn’t seem like the Liberal party is willing to confront the largest emitting sector in the country, which is the oil and gas sector.”
Carter noted that the Liberals’ commitment to pipeline projects indicate they are not serious about reducing emissions enough to reach their climate targets.
The Liberals have also made some other ambitious promises, including pharmacare.
The party’s platform stated the government would “take the critical steps” to implement national universal pharmacare.
The platform does not provide a specific cost, but Trudeau has said his party would adhere to a pharmacare report conducted by former Ontario health minister Eric Hoskins, who estimated the cost would run at $15.3 billion a year by 2027.
Stéphanie Plante, a former Elections Canada official, told Global News that promise may be tough to fulfill.
Plante said the party will face several challenges, one of the main ones being how to negotiate with other key players, such as insurance companies and provincial governments.
“We’re kind of jumping into something that’s a provincial/private company/insurance company jurisdiction,” she said.
“How would that be implemented?” she asked, noting that Liberals haven’t provided details on how they will make it happen.
Plante did note that the New Democrats, who have promised pharmacare for some time, are likely to support efforts to make it happen in parliament.
Trans Mountain pipeline
Lydia Miljan, an associate professor of political science at the University of Windsor, noted another tough promise for the Liberals will be its commitment to the Trans Mountain pipeline.
“Just because you buy a pipeline doesn’t mean it’s going to be built, especially in a minority situation,” she said.
The Liberals bought the Trans Mountain pipeline in 2018, promising to create an extension that would double the capacity of the current one.
However, that plan could fall apart if the Liberals are forced to work with the NDP and Greens, who staunchly oppose the project.
Miljan noted that the Liberals can try to work around disagreements and different parties can compromise on certain stances, but the chances are slim.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has suggested he could use the cancellation of the expansion project as a bargaining chip if his party ends up playing kingmaker in the Liberal minority government.
Quick promises and working together
While the Liberals have their work cut out for them on some promises, Miljan said there are some that may be easier to fulfill, including tax changes.
Trudeau has said he will gradually raise the threshold of income that’s exempted from tax from the current level of around $12,000 to $15,000 for most Canadians. The benefit would start to phase out for those earning more than $147,000 a year, with those making more than $210,000 completely excluded.
Miljan explained there is agreement among the Liberals and NDP on some ideas, which would make them easy targets, such as a tax on digital services like Netflix and changes to employment insurance.
But with details missing on several campaign promises, Plante noted that it can be difficult to predict how they will play out.
One thing Plante said is certain is that the effectiveness of the minority government relies on how well parties work together.
She said it’s likely they’ll at least try to make things work.
“There’s a lot of pressure for the parties to kind of be nice and try to figure things out,” she said.
“We have a lot of problems in the U.K. and a lot of problems in the U.S. We don’t want to be adding to the international noise of democratic failures. We’re Canadians and we want to be reasonable.”