Saskatchewan went blue in the 2019 federal election, with the Conservatives winning all 14 seats in the province.
Will the Tories hold all their Saskatchewan seats in the 2021 election, or will the NDP or Liberals gain back lost seats?
One of the biggest upsets in 2019 was in Regina-Wascana, where longtime Liberal stalwart Ralph Goodale was ousted by Conservative newcomer Michael Kramer.
While the Conservatives may not be in danger of losing this riding, three others are in play, according to political experts.
The NDP lost the ridings of Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River and Saskatoon West, while Regina-Lewvan went blue after electing former NDPer Erin Weir in 2015.
In Regina-Lewvan, a vote projection from 338Canada has the Conservatives neck-and-neck with the NDP.
Warren Steinley, who is looking to retain his seat, is being challenged by NDP candidate Tria Donaldson.
Steinley is a former Saskatchewan Party MLA who jumped to federal politics in 2019.
He said he believes all elections are close and whoever puts their name on the ballot has a chance to win.
“It’s always going to be a fight in urban ridings. NDP have been strong in Regina for a long time, but we’re actually seeing our support maintained and grow in some areas, especially in Harbour Landing from the last election,” Steinley said.
Donaldson is a noted activist and organizer in the labour movement and is aiming for an upset.
“It’s going to be a very important election based on turnout,” Donaldson said.
“So I think it’s just a matter of whose supporters come out and vote.”
The NDP is trying to regain Saskatoon West from the Conservatives.
University of Saskatchewan public policy Prof. Ken Coates calls this one of the more interesting ridings to watch due to its diversity, growth and candidate name recognition.
“Whenever you see a rapid development of a community like that, it really makes the result unpredictable,” Coates said.
Brad Redekopp, who defeated the NDP’s Sherri Benson in 2019, is facing a strong challenge from Robert Doucette, a local activist and the former president of Métis Nation-Saskatchewan.
Coates said Doucette has name recognition in the riding that few other candidates can’t match, giving him a good shot at gathering more votes than Redekopp.
However, Coates added that the Tories are very good at getting out the vote, which could give Redekopp the edge.
Either way, Coates said it will be a fascinating race to watch on election night.
In Saskatchewan’s north, Conservative Gary Vidal defeated the NDP’s Georgina Jolibois in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River in a riding that has flipped between the three main parties over the last two decades.
The race is considered a toss-up between the Conservatives, Liberals and the NDP.
Vidal is running again for the Conservatives, long-time Saskatchewan NDP MLA Buckley Belanger resigned his seat in the legislature to run for the Liberals and Harmonie King is looking to regain the seat for the NDP.
University of Regina political studies Prof. Tom McIntosh said name recognition is important in the riding.
“Party label is a lot less important than the local profile of the candidate,” he said.
“It’s really a case where it’s not about the party leader or the party label, it’s about who’s the local candidate for that particular party.”
McIntosh said that gives Belanger an edge, but added that it is always hard to win a seat against an incumbent.
“If it changed hands … people will put it down to the fact that Buckley has a reputation in the area, he’s well known, he’s well-liked,” he said.
“If liberals squeak out another minority government, then he’s the likely cabinet minister from Saskatchewan, so that could play as well.”
A wildcard in the three ridings could be the People’s Party of Canada. According to 338Canada, the PPC is polling between six and 11 per cent in these ridings, which could bleed support from the Conservatives.
McIntosh doubts the PPC will take enough votes to change the outcome of any riding, saying the composition of the party is not all ex-Conservatives.
“About a third of them actually voted Liberal last time,” he said.
“Where those votes are coming from and where they might go back is a lot more complicated than just assuming that if they don’t vote PPC, they’re all going to vote Conservative. They may not.”
McIntosh said it is possible that PPC supporters may not just vote.
“There seems to be a significant proportion of that vote or people identifying with that party that that didn’t vote in the last election, or the election before that as well.”
Polls in Saskatchewan open Monday at 7:30 a.m. and close at 7:30 p.m.
Stay connected across all Global News platforms on election night for results, analysis and reaction.
—WIth files from Taz Dhaliwal , Nathaniel Dove and Kyle Benning.