British Columbia’s provincial election is drawing to a close, and predicting the election night outcome may be tougher than usual due to an unprecedented ‘X-factor’ in this year’s vote.
There are a record 40 independent and unaffiliated candidates running this year — and even more unusual, six of them are incumbent MLAs.
On Thursday, incumbent and independent West Vancouver-Capilano candidate Karin Kirkpatrick assembled a show of support that demonstrates why this year’s independent slate is different than years past.
More than a dozen current and former elected politicians have signed on to endorse Kirkpatrick, the former BC United MLA who had planned to retire but decided to contest the election after leader Kevin Falcon scuttled the party’s campaign and threw his support behind the BC Conservatives.
“Something was done to this province by the BC Conservatives and BC United, to try to tell us who we are supposed to be going for and taking away and disenfranchising the voting right and ability for many moderate people across British Columbia,” she told supporters.
“I am the centrist option, I am the experienced option for them.”
With provincial polls continuing to show a tight race between the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives, independents could play a pivotal role in the outcome of the campaign.
Four of Kirkpatrick’s former BC United colleagues, Mike Bernier, Dan Davies, Tom Shypitka and Coralee Oakes are also running without a party affiliation, while former BC NDP MLA Adam Walker is running solo on Vancouver Island.
There are also a number of BC United first-time candidates like Jackie Lee in Richmond-Steveston who are now running without a party, following United’s collapse.
Lee has been pounding the pavement knocking on doors, and said he’s getting the same message from many voters.
“They do not want four more years of NDP and they do not want conspiracy theories,” he said, referring to a number of controversial statements by BC Conservatives that have come to light.
Even with the power of incumbency, however, independents will face a tough uphill battle.
British Columbians have proven reticent to elect candidates without parties in the past.
In fact, the province has elected just one since the mid-20th century: Delta MLA Vicki Huntington, a popular city councillor who served two terms before retiring in 2017.
“What is unusual this time is the number of independents who are incumbent MLAs and the number of independents who were going to be party candidates, but got dropped by BC United,” University of the Fraser Valley political scientist Hamish Telford said.
“So this is a class of independents who are different than your standard independent here.”
Telford said the candidates running in Peace River North and Peace River South, Dan Davies and Mike Bernier respectively, may have the best chance of breaking through.
That’s due to their name recognition, but also because the NDP is largely a non-factor in the area, setting up a two-way race with the BC Conservatives.
“Elsewhere I think the role independents could play is splitting the vote, and getting us unexpected outcomes in the ridings, in most cases I think benefitting the NDP,” he said.
Independents like Kirkpatrick, meanwhile, have been making the case that in an election as tight as this one, they may end up holding the balance of power in the legislature.
“We need to make sure that I am the one that is sent back to Victoria,” she said.
“So that I can represent the people of West Vancouver-Capilano, but also the people of British Columbia and make sure we have a fiscally responsible government that we are holding to account but we’re not scapegoating vulnerable British Columbians and we are making sure they are fully supported.”