An infection prevention specialist at Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS) says recent public health data appears to show the city is heading in the “right direction” in terms of new COVID-19 cases, but also said it was still “too early to call.”
Dr. Dominik Mertz, who’s also on the province’s infectious diseases advisory committee, told an HHS virtual town hall on Thursday that data shows that Hamilton seems to have hit the peak of the third wave in recent days with cases trending downward.
“It looks like we may have have reached a peak and are coming down. But mind you, we saw the same around Easter,” said Mertz.
“But back then we were very cautious and saying, well, it just might be some people not getting tested anymore. I’m a little bit more optimistic this time around.”
On Friday, the city’s COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population over 7 days dropped under 200 for the first time in five days from 213 to 195 as of Thursday.
The city’s seven-day average of new cases is also down day-over-day to 167, as of April 23.
However, it’s the second day in a row the city has hit an all time daily high with active cases peaking at 1,905 — up 122 day over day.
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Mertz says cases hitting ICU wards are also not dropping, and variants of concern (VOC) continue to rise with over 1,100 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant (first detected in the U.K.) detected in Hamilton.
New cases involving variants were up by 253 day over day on Friday.
Public health says they have now identified over 2,600 cases tied to variants and that of the city’s 48 outbreaks, variants have been positively screened at 38 locations.
Public health has reported three cases of the two other variants, B.1.351 (first detected in South Africa) and P.1 (first detected in Brazil), however Mertz said those are underestimated and there are many more cases.
Dr. Barry Pakes, a preventive medicine physician and professor with the University of Toronto, says data collection of where variants are coming from has been challenging since health officials in many municipalities don’t count recipients of the spread as travel-related cases.
As of April 23, Hamilton public health has reported 1.2 per cent of its 16,113 COVID-19 cases amid the pandemic have been connected with someone who has travelled.
However, Pakes says data like that doesn’t show the how much exposure those cases can bring to a community — especially with the emergence of the new variants which enter Canada from abroad.
“All those secondary cases are counted in the community spread,” Pakes said.
“If we had a much better data system, we’d actually have a bit of a bigger, better picture early on of how it’s actually quite significant from travel.”
Hamilton reports 127 new COVID-19 cases, 3 new outbreaks
Hamilton reported 127 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, and three new outbreaks at a supportive housing unit, child care, and a shelter.
The surge at the Beth Tikvah Group Home on Main St. involves a staff member, while the outbreak at the Mission Services overflow shelter in East Hamilton is tied to a single resident case.
Two patrons at the First Class Children’s Centre in Central Hamilton have also tested positive for COVID-19.
Five child care operations in the city are now in outbreaks tied to 21 total cases as of April 23.
Two workplaces saw their outbreaks expand with the largest change day over day at National Steel Car, which now has 16 cases involving workers.
Three outbreaks ended on Thursday at the Harvey’s on Queenston Road, the Boys and Girls Club at Strathcona elementary and at the Grandview Animal Hospital in Stoney Creek.
The animal hospital was the largest of the three surges, with just five cases among staff members.
Hamilton has 48 outbreaks as of Friday involving more than 290 total cases.
Over 69 per cent of the city’s new cases are among people under the age of 50, according to public health. Just over 41 percent of new cases are among residents under 30.
Around 7.9 per cent of all COVID-19 tests in the city are returning with positive results.
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