One of the strongest El Ninos on record could bring a much warmer than normal winter, but the “Godzilla” warming event meteorologists are forecasting could affect parts of Canada in different ways for months.
An El Nino ocean warming event typically occurs every three to seven years and shifts what is normally seen in the Pacific Ocean.
Phillips says trade winds that typically push warm water towards places like Indonesia reverse and weaken. As a result, warm water is pushed towards the coasts of South America, and in some cases may even reach parts of North America such as Mexico or the U.S.
What makes this year’s El Nino a record breaker is the temperature. Water surface temperature in the Pacific hit at least 0.5 C above average in El Nino years but this year, the temperature has hit 3.5 C above average.
“We’ve never seen the water as warm as it is right now in that part of the Pacific, of the tropical Pacific on the east side of the ocean,” said Phillips. “We’ve never seen an El Nino this strong and it’s still growing, it’s still strong.”
A warmer winter?
Now, Canadians may be wondering why something in the Pacific Ocean could affect people on the East Coast and the answer is the jet stream.
In non-El Nino years, the polar jet stream is settled over Canada and brings us colder weather.
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But in El Nino, Global News chief meteorologist Anthony Farnell said the subtropical jet stream moves north.
“It brings a lot of of Pacific air, a lot of mild temperatures, and that travels not just close to the source in B.C., but it’ll travel all the way around the planet, impact the weather in Europe, in Asia, everything is related in the weather world,” Farnell said.
Even though the system will mean warmer temperatures for the most part, it will still vary from coast to coast.
Drier in the west, warmer in the east
North America is still further away from where El Nino forms in the Pacific, so while places like Peru or Ecuador could see more rain, that likely won’t be the case here.
B.C., Alberta and other parts of the Prairies are likely to see fewer storms and milder temperatures, but Farnell says it could also be drier which could hurt both ski season and next year’s wildfire season.
East of Manitoba, places like Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes will see above seasonal conditions amounting to less snow.
“That’s kind of a misnomer is people think winter’s cancelled, that’s not the case,” Farnell said. “We’re still going to have those bouts of extreme cold, they may not last as long. The snow that does fall, it could be heavy, but it also doesn’t last as well.”
Snow will also likely melt faster because of the up and down temperatures.
That fast melt could impact people who use snow a lot like ski hills and other winter recreation users, Phillips said.
“You’re going to have warm temperatures come, and when you get that big snowpack and you’ve got a good snow base, all of a sudden the mild air comes or the rain comes and not more snow,” Phillips said.
He added though it began earlier this year, it likely won’t peak for a few more weeks likely in early December.
El Nino to last well into 2027
Even after it peaks, Farnell said its effects are typically delayed.
“So I think over the next six months to a year is when we’re really going to see the extremes,” he said. “It is just going to bring the temperature of the planet up another step and that is something that with climate change combined is going to have some definitely long-lasting impacts.
“With climate change you end with more extremes, so the combo of the two I would say I would bet that they’re going to be big storms, ice storms, droughts, fires, floods, all of that in the months ahead.”
Oh, you Cons don’t see? How is that yearly fire doing? With smoke reaching thousands of miles away. Even dum-dum Donny threatened to tariff it. I remembered when I was young building camp fires during our family camp out. Now, that’s more likely no than a guarantee. Maybe you MAGAS can start raking the millions of hectares of forest floor to stop forest fires.
Alberta just had snow….
Poor Ben.So guilible
LOOK !!!
IT’S GODZILLA !!!
RUN AWAY !!!!
WAAAAAAA !!!!
What ever happened to the coming ice age?
Wasn’t acid rain supposed to end humanity ?
How come the hole in the Ozone layer didn’t burn up the planet?
Oh no, not the Godzilla El Nino !How will we survive?
“It is actually everybody either talking about [U.S. President Donald] Trump’s tariffs or Godzilla El Nino,”
Ya,thats all everybody talks about.Trumps tariffs or Godzilla ElNino.
What kind of f**cked up fear bubble do these people live in? Life is a lot better when you don’t buy into the endless B.S. these people spew.
For the type that require polls to have opinions and those that defer to “experts” because they certainly lack the intelligence:
Toronto’s shoreline has been rising for centuries. Luckily, we are not cavemen and have built out the land as it is swallowed by the lake.
Did climate change ruin Venice? It sunk it, but the city thrives still.
Now, Doggerland, which was wiped out by a climate disaster some 10,000 years ago or so, sure, that probably killed large swaths of people living in the lowlands, but it did not wipe out the culture, it dispersed it.
The climate hysteria is an operation to convince you to allow government taxes to increase exponentially with no oversight or debate.
Oh no, I’m so scared by drama queen’s hyping regular weather patterns that vary from year to year as Godzilla.
If only we didn’t have an over abundance of fresh water lakes with a guaranteed surplus if the polar caps melt and drown all of the elitist mansions on shorelines.
Welcome to Otisburg!
You gotta watch out for that “Mowbray el nina”
What about the “polar vortex” they reported on last week?
They have no clue
Here we are again with this El Nino horse manure. Anyone remember the forecasts for last May, then July, the August, and none of it came true. Wake up.
A perfect storm lol
You have to love the dramatic way that the weather is being predicted so as to frighten people. We have always had colder years, warmer years, snow and icy years, dry and rainy years. So stop with the fear mongering because we cannot control the weather we just live through what happens every year.
Y NOT JUST USE A F/ G THUMBNAIL OF THE SAHARA DESERT NEXT TIME. CO / K SU KERS
SO WHAT ??? IT HAPPENS, CALLED SEASONS ! SOME WORSE THAN OTHERS ! STOP MAKING A BIG DEAL OUT OF NOTHING !!! CO/ K SUC KERS
Weather forecasting is an inexact science, you might as well just flip a coin and still get the same accuracy. “It might be warmer due to El Nino”, “It might be colder due to the Polar Vortex”…
On the prairies the meteorologists predicted a very hot and dry summer. More rain fell this year than the last 3 combined. It was much cooler overall as well.
Weather hype is a real thing. The weather will be what it will be and most likely not anything like the predictions.
‘Could’. The word BozoBen stays awake at night hoping. Your green delusion is over Bennie. No one cares anymore. We’d rather not live in your dystopia. Feel free to go back to eating your wholesome wormeal.
Any “climate change” is part of a natural cycle for the earth.
And climate change increases the severity of El Nino.
Making stuff up 101