A new Ipsos poll shows that while the BC Conservatives appeared in disarray one month ago, they have now gained a five-point lead over the BC NDP.
The poll, conducted in partnership with Global BC, shows the BC Conservatives have the support of 43 per cent of decided voters, which puts them five-points ahead of the BC NDP, which have 38 per cent of support.
The BC Green Party is up one point, now sitting at 11 per cent, followed by OneBC at four per cent and CentreBC at two per cent.
The poll found that 18 per cent of voters are still undecided and seven per cent have no preference for which party is in power.
“The BC Conservatives are now up on the NDP by five points,” Kyle Braid, senior vice president of Ipsos, said on Tuesday morning.
“And if anything, their lead is firming up and expanding. And so if it wasn’t obvious before, it’s very clear now from these numbers that calling this election an early election might turn out to be a giant miscalculation.”
The race remains very close in Metro Vancouver, however, with the BC Conservatives leading by three points with 42 per cent, while the BC NDP has 39 per cent, but the NDP does have a substantial lead on Vancouver Island with 47 per cent to the BC Conservatives’ 27 per cent, according to those polled.
The BC Conservatives have a 21-point lead in the Southern Interior and in the northern part of the province, with 53 per cent to the BC NDP’s 32 per cent.
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“The Conservatives are doing really well with men,” Braid said.
“The gender gap that we often see in B.C. has returned, so the Conservatives lead by big margins with men, the NDP with women, the Conservatives are doing really well with the 35- to 54-year-old age group, and of course, as always, they’re doing really well in the Interior and north of the province.”
Nearly one in four voters, 23 per cent, who say they have a current party preference said there is still a “good chance” they will change their mind and vote for some other party’s candidate in the election.
The poll also found that half of residents, which is up slightly from the previous poll, believe it is time for another provincial party to take over, with that number now at 50 per cent.
Three-in-10, 31 per cent, of residents continue to say the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election.
Two-in-10 people, 19 per cent, are undecided.
“There’s probably about 25 per cent of the voters who are still up for grabs,” Braid said.
“Some of them undecided, some of them have a choice now but are not certain of it, so that’s a fairly large number at this point of the campaign. Some of that is driven by the fact that the Conservative Party is kind of new, different than the Conservative Party we had in the last election and they also have a new leader.”
When it comes to the favourability of the leaders, Eby continues to come out ahead at 35 per cent viewing him favourably, with BC Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson sitting at 26 per cent. However, Eby’s unfavourable rating is at 38 per cent, while Doerkson’s is at 24 per cent, according to the poll.
“The leadership question is an open one here,” Braid said.
“People just know David Eby, and his numbers actually are not that bad. We’ve seen premiers and politicians have numbers that are in the 50 or 60 per cent negatives. He’s got almost as many favorables as unfavorables, so they’re still open to hearing from David Eby. They just don’t know Lorne Doerkson yet, which suggests that the debate that’s coming up is going to be extremely important.”
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British Columbians will have the opportunity to hear from the three major party leaders ahead of the provincial election on Oct. 24.
The B.C. provincial leaders’ debate will take place on Wednesday, Oct. 14, from 6:15 p.m. to 8 p.m. and will be live on Global BC, BC1 and online.
Eby, Doerkson and BC Green Party leader Emily Lowan will be taking part.
Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, will be the moderator.
“David Eby has two tasks in the leaders’ debate,” Braid said.
“One is to create some sense of risk for people for electing a BC Conservative government. And the other is to try to persuade some of those voters who are considering either the NDP or the Greens that a vote for the NDP is the correct choice.
“Lorne Doerkson’s main thing is simply to introduce himself to voters in the province. Most people don’t know him. The other thing is quite simply just to stand up and look like a premier. That’s it.”
These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC from Oct. 7 to 11, 2026. For this survey, a sample of 1,356 adult British Columbians were surveyed both online through sample sourced through the Ipsos panel (n=1,001) and by phone with live interviewers (n=350) using both cellphones and landlines. Data was weighted by B.C. region, age, gender and education, in accordance with Census proportions. The precision of Ipsos polls, including online samples, is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll is accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Questions asked only of online respondents are accurate to within ±3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to, coverage error and measurement error.
Eby relinquished any chance of getting my vote when he announced his “tax the rich”. Anyone that looked at the income’s starting point would have seen it landed in the middle class, not the rich at all.
NDP lost my vote when I heard the news Eby’s family claimed two $10 daycare spots. I don’t care about his alleged donations he made after he got caught.
If John Horgan didn’t get sick we wouldn’t even know his name. Globals reference to Eby as a giant Slayer shows who butters their bread. Bye,Eby. Get out.
For many of us, they are the only option. I now realize why Eby mentions Trump at every turn. If we’re focused on Trump’s crazy behaviour, Eby will look better by comparison. All the underhanded and undemocratic things he does don’t seem so bad compared to Trump’s constant mayhem. Interesting tactic, but he is allowing Trump to lower the bar for our politicians by keeping so much attention on him. And that’s bad for all of us.
Wow, lots of idiots on this thread. So many in fact its becoming a daily thing for Global.
Oh well, F*ck the NDP and this climate change cult of theirs. How soon before Eby uses food banks too. F*ckin POS!
Why aren’t people asking why the daycare David Eby’s child/children attend was chosen for the $10/day daycare subsidy program? It’s a highly beneficial program and only went to select daycare providers. There is most certainly conflict in that alone.
Look how desperate I am with my last comment. Trying to fool people into thinking all the many polls saying the NDP are getting wiped out are somehow wrong. Progressives are the ones sitting at home answering phones and collecting EI insurance, not blue collar conservatives. As if the whole province isn’t sick of the total mismanagement of these incompetent Dippers and their record deficit, DRIPA, healthcare failures, cost of living, on and on. Even their loser leader Eby who has a household income in the hundreds of thousands $$ is taking advantage of one of the few $10/day daycare slots. And how many of you got that $1000 from him last election? I thought so. haha
BC NDP supporters are too busy working full time and paying taxes to respond to Ipsos polls. While the BC Conservative supporters are busy making noise on the internet and replying to every poll they can possibly find. We’ll see who shows up on election day 😉
It is insane that we are still talking about the $10/day from Eby. Let it go and focus on the important things that matter. I am not a fan of Eby but I don’t get why he is being hounded for the $10/day when his child was there before the daycare subsidy was in place? Another thing I don’t get is why an affluent area such as Point Grey even has subsidized daycare centres. This $10/day daycare is just peanuts. Andrew Scheer (Conservative Party) did far worse: billed the Conservative party for his kids’ private Catholic school, private security, an extra housekeeper, his minivan and clothes for his family. Andrew was living off the skins of the Conservative Party and we can only guess where that money was siphoned from. The Conservatives are not good either, with the infighting, among other things behind the curtains, how can keep themselves together as a team in such a short period of time? I don’t trust them at all because they are hiding something much more and it is not going to be good. In the past, the ousted Conservative leader Rustad wanted to cut back healthcare and that is a big NO. It is bad as it already is and we don’t want this worse. Then the ousted Conservative Finlay started to make rascist, inflammatory, and derogatory comments. It doesn’t seem to end with the Conservatives. The Conservatives are known to help out the mid to upper class, not those who need financial help. Now the question is, who is the lesser of the evils? And don’t call those 38% vote for NDP baffling.
Why did Eby not do these promises before he called a election, that is because he wont do them, all he does is Lie.
That 38% would still vote for the NDP is absolutely baffling eh ?
Vote BC Conservative- 80 seats or more!
OK enough with the old people bashing, those same folks who have paid taxes forever. have read some of the Anonymous posts you are no brain trust either. It’s a democracy, people will vote for thousands of different reasons and that’s up to them.
I can see why Vancouver Island still supports Eby. It’s mostly old people out there, who are of course in cognitive decline, not to mention much more resistant to change, even if it’s for the better.
People, talk to your older parents/grandparents and clue them in on the reality that is this disaster of an NDP party.
Who are those 38% who think the NDP is doing a good job in BC? Really?
Eby has done literally NOTHING since being illegally chosen to lead the BC NDPs…
Not weeks…not months
YEARS
He is a perfect example of our democracy NOT working.
They HAVE to go.
The thing to consider is that Eby called this election because he thought it would be a sure thing but the people of BC are glad to not vote the conservatives in but to vote Eby and the NDP out. Also this last mess with Eby taking a $10 a day daycare spot with the income that he and his wife earns is showing a total disregard for the struggling families of this province
Why is it that both these people have them guys with the funny hats following them around like puppy dogs …. seems strange to me
The only reason the Conservatives were “fractured” was because the bulk of them did not want the further right style of KerryLynnF. I’d even question how she was elected. Regardless, once she resigned, they resoundingly came together under the leadership (temporary or not) of Lorne Doerkson. Lorne has proven a steady hand, who speaks plainly and represents what the majority of BCers want. A change. A direction of promise. No one expects a free ride, but we are all done with seeing the waste and the excessive spend of our hard earned tax dollars for special interest groups, for lobbying, for free rides, for “safe” supply. I don’t think it’s too much to ask for our parks to be available to use without the fear of needles. For our streets to be safe, for police to be allowed to do their job. For an emergency room be open no matter the time or the day. That we have access to a doctor. These aren’t outlandish requests. Lorne seems to be addressing them.
We expect there will be a full investigation on any intimidation tactics by China or India. Cause your polls dont even make sense. Whos being intimidated, we know its happening since you cant stop all the extortions of immigrants. No immigrant would choose to continue being extorted or intimidated. So do an investigation immediately.
This election, unfortunately, is a matter of protecting our province’s democratic values and holding the government accountable for their corrupt behaviour. All of that is before mentioning the massive debt they have accumulated in a short time, while increasing taxes across the board. Constant Trump scape-goating, property rights, the list goes on. I would be interested to learn about what they have done right, honestly. These massive accounting errors need to be examined thoroughly as well.
I’m planning my ” celebration rant “/ my nice try ” we are the champions speech already. Balloons and streamers….the only thing I haven’t done yet is setup a go fund me page to send you guys back to your mothership/ motherland. I’m afraid of raising TOO MUCH money though…..
Hahaha nothing like pretending your voting for change when your just electing in a liberal party under a blue banner!!! Enjoy!!
FYI, i’m just a moron in denial. I know the NDP will lose badly. After that, i’ll cease to show up here. Or at the very least, i’ll change my name here.
Relax Anthony! Their act IS together. This NDP is sinking themselves nicely. Never interrupt the Enemy when they are making a mistake (or constant streak of mistakes).
The BC Conservatives to stop screwing around and get their collective acts together if we’re serious about putting Eby and his incompetent team out to pasture!
You can crash the party…but don’t ever think you own it . Ever ! When the NDP wins I wish we could all go have lunch….unfortunately I won’t get that chance to dance a jig….but deep down…when you lie awake at night…when your at church or the grocery store…you’ll know! And maybe just maybe you’ll just grab a broom and help out instead of trying to lead. For all those who think elvis is still alive and jfk is around the corner…..I guess we’ll see shortly?!
How’d that freedom convoy work out for you? Did you guys change the world or nothing happened except pissing off millions of people?! We’re not the ones having a tough time with reality. You guys at BEST are counting your chickens before they hatch. Hayseeds and church people rule Alberta….not BC. We all don’t want to die…..conservatives would crash the ship within the hour! And you guys claim they are the messiahs.
The sooner Eby and his ilk gets booted out the better. BC is imploding under the idiotic things NDP enacted, like undermining property rights of the long term legal homeowners. Just have Vancouver to maskwacis or some such.
Got caught having his kid in a $10/day daycare while he draws over $200,000/year salary.
Only brain-dead people would still vote NDP anywhere.
BC resident are you having some trouble accepting reality.
The conservatives don’t belong in BC….period. it was the Liberals and the NDP….then the Liberals self destructed…leaving only the NDP to vote for. Keep dreaming cons…keep dillusional dreaming.
Why do I have this fear that BC will get cold feet and vote NDP again?
Eby’s latest gaffe is his admission that his child goes to a $10 a day daycare. Given that the whole point of the $10 a day program was to assist parents who are having difficulty affording daycare, the optics of a premier who earns more than $224,000 a year and who’s wife also earns a good salary are terrible. He tried to mitigate it by saying he gives the daycare a donation, which he can then claim on his taxes as the daycare is run by the YMCA, a non profit organization. Not to mention that his child is taking the place of a child that needs the space more.
Adding to my last post, from 338Canada, the poll aggregator:
Popular Vote: Cons 45%, NDP 42%
Seat Projection: Cons 52, NDP 39 (47 for a Majority)
Odds of Winning the Most Seats: Cons 75%, NDP 24%
Odds of Outcome: Cons Majority 72%, NDP Majority 22%
All polls have been factored in, not just Global/Ipsos. As of today (October 13, 2026).
This late in the game, Eby is already gone. The aggregated polls suggest him and the NDP have less than 23% odds of forming government as of today (source: 338Canada, the poll; aggregator). The only way this can turn around for the NDP now is either A) a major scandal, or B) the sudden stepping down of the Conservative Leader.
What i’m curious about, is why women feel better continuing with this NDP government? If your answer is “they’re still better them then the Cons,” you need to clarify that as to what the Cons have said they’d done that would make your lives worse off. Same with the people on Vancouver Island.
I think everybody knows Eby does not keep his promises it is time for him to go. I don’t know anybody that wants four more years of NDP
BC Liberals move from fractured to front runners, new poll finds
There, fixed it !
OneBC are the true Conservatives, corrupt media complicit in the corrupt politics of our once great country.
Conservatives are always in the lead…when no.one else is racing. If nobody shows their only hope is by default. Nobody is serious right now…just wait till voting time. Also read the article…ndp is still ahead. Put your tinfoil hat back on.
Conservatives in the lead, and the whiners come out. Take a seat boomers. The time if your selfishness needs to end at some point. Elbows up boomers.
Time for a new party? Dallas brodie? It’s great to cheer for the ” fat kid in the race” but let’s get real. Cookoo talk. Those people are clueless and have no chance. Boo hoo conservatives….hopefully youll seperate and can ALL go home!!!
Now is not the time for a new party just united after much chaos to lead BC. Eby knows what is going on and what has taken place with the other provinces during this ongoing trade war. We need strong leadership not the unknown on how this new party will keep their promises or not.
The Ebys…with a yearly family income north of $700,000…..are using the $10 a-day childcare should have outraged everybody….the taxpayer for footing the bill……the working poor for not having it available to everyone that needs it….the NDP for having their pet project abused by one of their own, their leader!!! And still….somehow…38% of decided voters support Eby….How can that be?
BC really needs Dallas Brodie….looks like it wont happen this time though. The main thing is getting Eby away from the controls! The Cons will be much better than the NDP!!! We live among the 38% that want the NDP to continue with their expensive, misguided antics.
Worst premiers, Bennett, vander zalm, mike Harcourt, glenn Clark, glen Campbell, christy Clarke, david eby
what is the matter with people, the useless NDP still gets 38% support, unreal
On to victory!
BC Cons-80 seats Green-10 NDP-3
This will be the last time we have to see the idiots face ever again!