BC Conservatives support is up while BC NDP tumble, poll says

An exclusive poll for Global News shows the BC Conservatives are gaining support in the election race.

The Ipsos poll shows that support for the BC Conservatives is at 42 per cent, up seven points, while the BC NDP support is at 40 per cent, which is down five points.

The poll found that there is a “significantly altered political landscape” following the resignation of BC Conservative Kerry-Lynne Findlay and interim leader Lorne Doerkson stepping into the role.

The poll also shows a decline in NDP Leader David Eby’s personal impression ratings, making the BC NDP’s decision to call an early election looking risky.

“We did a poll just two weeks ago that was pretty shocking,” Kyle Braid, senior vice president of Ipsos, told Global News.

“Some terrible numbers for the BC Conservatives showed them in decline and disarray and the NDP looking like they were headed to an easy majority government if they called an election. Things have changed since then. The Conservative leader left. We have a new landscape and we’re entering an election and it would be very interesting to see how the numbers have changed and whether this was actually a good election call for David Eby and the NDP.”

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The poll shows that the NDP’s lead from two weeks ago has vanished with 42 per cent of those polled saying they now support the BC Conservatives, which puts them two points ahead of a statistical tie of the BC NDP at 40 per cent.

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The BC Conservatives have gained seven points from the poll that was conducted on from Sept. 8 to 14, while the BC NDP have lost five points.

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“It’s hard to imagine a worse start to a campaign for the NDP than what we see here,” Braid added.

“They’ve gone from a 10-point lead in our polling just two weeks ago to a two-point deficit to the Conservatives. David Eby’s personal favorability numbers have declined. We’ve got fewer people this election than last election saying the NDP deserves to be re-elected and they barely won the last election. And add to that, they say it’s an election about U.S. trade and tariffs. It’s an issue that barely registers with voters and in fact has declined as an issue since the start of the campaign.”

There continue to be three dominant issues for voters in British Columbia, according to the poll – cost of living/inflation (56 per cent), health care (39 per cent) and housing affordability and availability (31 per cent).

“Top issues for British Columbians are exactly the same as they were last election, as they were just a few weeks ago,” Braid added.

“So it’s cost of living, housing and affordability of housing, and health care are the three top issues. The things that the parties have been talking about, issues like property rights and DRIPA on one side, U.S. trade and tariffs on the other side, are not top priority issues for voters.”

The poll shows that the BC Greens have a 10 per cent show of support, followed by OneBC at three per cent, CentreBC at three per cent and other parties at two per cent.

These results exclude the 27 per cent of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

The poll found that half of British Columbians say they disapprove of having an election now, while 32 per cent approve of the decision.

Ipsos said that this is on par with the 46 per cent disapproval when John Horgan and the NDP called an early election during COVID in September 2020.

Disapproval is much higher among BC Conservative supporters (64 per cent) than among BC NDP voters (34 per cent).

Disapproval is also much higher among older British Columbians (59 per cent among 55+ years) than among younger British Columbians (36 per cent among 18 to 34 years).

“What we do see is the premier’s own favorability numbers have declined, his unfavorable impressions have gone up seven points in the last two weeks, and what has he done other than call an election?” Braid added.

“So there is a backlash. It may just be for him personally and may not be for the party, but it’s not a great first set of numbers on the campaign.”

These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted Sept. 25 to 29, 2026. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 adult British Columbians were surveyed online with sample sourced through the Ipsos panel. Data was weighted by B.C. region, age, gender and education, in accordance with census proportions. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.