Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s office is blaming vote splitting among conservatives for a surprising Monday byelection defeat in what is supposed to be one of their Calgary strongholds.
However, voices from across the political spectrum took to social media Tuesday to say that if Smith’s UCP wants to point the finger of blame, it should be at themselves. They say it was the upcoming referendum on quitting Canada that had voters ready to send a message.
Kyle Campbell of the Opposition NDP defeated Mike Derry of the UCP in Calgary-Shaw voting Monday night.
The riding, created in 1986, has long voted conservative. The NDP had won the seat only once, in 2015, as part of the “orange wave” that brought former premier Rachel Notley into government.
Campbell collected 7,461 votes, which is 582 more than Derry.
The byelection was the first to see former Smith cabinet minister Peter Guthrie field a candidate under his upstart Progressive Tory banner.
Guthrie’s candidate, Kyle Joseph, finished third with 978 votes, which could have been enough to swing the vote in the UCP’s favour if they were disaffected conservative voters.
Smith’s office pointed to that possibility in a statement Tuesday.
“A split of the conservative vote along with a low overall turnout were the primary reason for the byelection result,” Smith spokesperson Sam Blackett said.
“It’s more important than ever that Alberta conservatives remain united to avoid an economically ruinous NDP government.”
Guthrie rejected the charge in an interview Tuesday, saying his Progressive Tory party didn’t siphon votes from the UCP because in his mind the UCP is no longer a true conservative entity, but rather a “purely populist government.”
“We do not have a conservative government, so you’re not splitting anything,” said Guthrie.
While Smith’s office blamed Guthrie, many conservative leaders took to social media Tuesday to argue the byelection loss had more to do with the Oct. 19 referendum on whether Alberta should remain in Canada.
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Former UCP premier Jason Kenney said the debate on quitting Canada is alienating conservative voters who also love Canada while pushing disaffected nationalist supporters into the arms of left-centre opponents such as the NDP.
“Folks planning to vote ‘to send a message’ by starting the separation process: please take note of the NDP’s win tonight in the most conservative part of urban Canada,” Kenney wrote on X.
“A vote to separate is a vote to help the NDP win the next provincial election, and for the Liberal Party of Canada to win far more Alberta seats.”
Ken Boessenkool, a longtime conservative strategist and signatory of the famous 2001 Alberta firewall letter, said he reads the byelection result as voters being unhappy they’re dealing with separatism at a time when more serious issues need addressing.
The UCP loss, he wrote on X, is “a welcome rebuke for distracting Albertans with a foolish, dangerous and undemocratic referendum.”
Michael Solberg, a former staffer to former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, also weighed in.
“The growing brand of rage-farming ‘conservative’ who supports separation and pushes conspiracy theories and fake narratives is UNELECTABLE anywhere,” Solberg said on social media.
“The people are never wrong.”
Cory Morgan, a conservative commentator who leads a third-party advertising outfit pushing for the province to separate from Canada, said the results show Smith has angered her base, prompting many to stay home for the byelection.
“What I see here is the result of Smith trying to play on both sides of the unity issue,” Morgan wrote on X.
Smith has said she had no choice but to put separation on the referendum ballot and put the contentious issue to rest.
The question asks voters whether Alberta should stay in Canada or hold a second binding referendum to quit Confederation.
Opponents say Smith has no mandate to quit Canada, that there is no raging public debate to leave, and that she is just doing it to hold at bay separatist hardliners in her party.
The NDP made the referendum a key part of the byelection campaign, urging voters to send a message to Smith that they don’t want a government catering to separatists.
On Tuesday, Campbell and NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi told reporters in Calgary that when the separation vote came up at the doors with byelection voters, there was predominant support for remaining in Canada.
“People are really angry about it,” Nenshi said. “We deserve a government that is unapologetically, proudly Canadian.
“A government that doesn’t distract us with costly referendums to save their own political skin.”
But Nenshi said the referendum wasn’t the main issue he was hearing, and that Calgary-Shaw residents also brought up more day-to-day concerns like health care, education and affordability.
Guthrie said the separation vote was the dominant concern on the Calgary-Shaw doorsteps and that Smith’s actions have given many voters the impression her UCP supports separation, despite the premier saying she wants Alberta to stay in the Confederation fold.
Smith’s loss in Calgary-Shaw resonates beyond the byelection. The next provincial election is set for Oct. 18, 2027, and Calgary is considered the linchpin.
The NDP has dominated Edmonton in recent elections while the UCP takes the smaller cities and the rural areas, making Calgary the critical path to electoral success.
In the 2023 general election, won by the UCP under Smith, Calgary was a battleground. The NDP won 14 of the 26 seats — a stark turnaround after the party captured just three seats in the city in 2019.
Political scientist Lori Williams called the byelection result a “significant loss” for Smith, but also said it’s difficult to take firm lessons from byelections.
Williams agreed that the upcoming referendum played a role in the NDP’s win, adding that the UCP candidate being endorsed by some in the independence movement could have been an additional liability.
But she also said perceptions of Smith’s performance on long-standing priorities for Albertans like health care and affordability played a significant role.
“I think it’s that sort of one-two punch that’s really generated the result in this byelection,” said Williams, with Mount Royal University in Calgary.
“Voters have sent a message that they don’t think she’s performing on the files.”
The seat flip means the ruling UCP holds 47 of the legislature’s 87 seats. The NDP has 39, and Guthrie has the lone Progressive Tory seat.
— With files from Lisa Johnson, The Canadian Press
Bunch of leftists here commenting and pissed about a referendum. Having a referendum is part of what we call democracy . You don’t agree with it, go in and vote no. That is what democracy is. You want a Group to control without having input from citizens. Seems to be a common thing. Lots of people love king Carney.
How quickly people forget what provincial NDP governments have done to destroy the quality of life in the provinces that they have controlled.
Tom you’re a rude prk. and you just wasted your time scribbling your comment on here, rather than using your crayons and coloring book.
Is nenshi part pig on his mother’s side?or part donkey on his dad’s side?just wondering
Alberta loves giving free money to the rest of Canada to bad they don’t stand strong together
Egads, but she is one ugly POS.
Blame everyone else but the possibility your voters are angry. That’s a move that will surely calm them down.
Why would the premiers office blame a split vote. All they are doing this for is to try to distract people’s opinion of the real reason they lost the by-election.
Does the UCP government think that we, the voters are stupid and don’t know the difference between the Tory party and the UCP.
To me the people didn’t want to vote for the UCP, so Yes, the remaining choices on the ballot were split. If there was no Tory party on the ballot then, Kyle Campbell would have won by even more votes.
Given the PM has opened the door on ‘sovereignty association’ i expect “a sovereign Alberta within Canada”’ to take on an entirely new meaning. The law of unintended consequences. Glad Smith has set AB upon such a useful trajectory. All the naysayers still cannot explain why AB is better off in Confederation.
Well, Alberta under Danielle Smith’s watch is sightly a lot better off than us in British Columbia under Eby. If Albertan’s doesn’t want her, we’ll take her..
Bud, UCP definitely didn’t lose that bi election because Smith alienated separatists. There are not many separatists in Calgary Shaw. Get a clue.
Well Ken, to your below. Not all of us our broke because we aren’t lazy. My mortgage did go up….due to the federal government increasing interest rates, hence why rent would go up you big genius. Medical emergencies only cost people in Canada money if they have to be off work so Im not sure why that would have changed. Fuel is also more expensive because of stuff in Iran so again, not sure what you are even getting at. Yes my wages go up every year so again, not sure what youre getting at. And yes I can buy a big ticket toy if you want to. Im not sure what Alberta youre living in. Its pretty clear that you dont have a clue how any of this works.
Ken:
I want to ask all the UCP voters if their lives have become any more affordable since the UCP came to office in 2019. Have your wages improved? Have your taxes gone down? Is fuel and groceries cheaper? Can you afford a medical emergency or big ticket toy? Is rent lower? Are wait times down in the ER? If you answered yes to any of those questions you either don’t live in Alberta, or you’re just a fool.
You may have won this round fatty but don’t count on winning the next election!
They seem to be governing quite successfully…
From what I c in these comments is a bunch of spoiled brats who r never satisfied. And no doubt an influx of leotard eastoners ! If we hadn’t of had Mrs. Smith all this time alberta would have been finished ! Wake up patriotic albertains we have been taken care of very well by Mrs Smith!
Again. These are not your daddy’s Progressive Conservatives; this is a branch of the bible-thumping Reform Party who took over the Conservative” name. Blinded by the light, unable to govern.
UCP lost a lot of support by promoting carbon tax and alienating the independence voters.
The usual government union workers and special interest groups voted, the people wanting Alberta Independence are fed up with the UCP and didn’t vote.
Ralph Klein Jr
September 16, 2026 at 4:21 am
Anything but UCP in Alberta would be a refreshing change for all of Canada. They are dragging the country down.
We need some details as how Alberta and the UCP are dragging the country down? Tangible facts not just feelings please.
The UCP is dangerous. Public health nurses are no longer allowed to tell new mothers about vaccination unless asked first. How many young teachers will give birth to blind children struck by measles thanks to this conspiracy theory driven nonsense? If you’re a conservative vote Tory. Time for the UCP to go.
D Channon
September 15, 2026 at 3:45 pm
Well said, I second that motion.
We did have a referendum few years ago and DST was voted against. How is it this government just override that vote and bring in permanent DST?
Calling a referendum, any referendum, undemocratic is an interesting position… Not having a referendum would be undemocratic. Just vote no, it isn’t that hard. There’s nothing wrong with having a referendum. Referenda are our chance to actually participate in democracy, rather than our usual practice of simply electing an aristocracy.
Anything but UCP in Alberta would be a refreshing change for all of Canada. They are dragging the country down.
You Do Really Make Me Sick Though…Looking At You….Sick Smith
IT’S TIME TO SAY GOODBYE TO HER….ALBERTA IS SICK OF LOOKING AND LISTENING TO our leader…HAHA CAN’T WAIT
BYE BYE DANIELLE ! ON YOUR WAY OUT SOON
ROFLMFAO 😁😄😂🤣
@Ex Calgarian
Was this figured out before or after your sister said no I wont marry you?
S0 Donald Trump oops my bad Danielle Smith doesnt track reality SHOCKING
Spoken like a true believer of APP stealing from from their dementia riddled relatives
Like a grade 6er blaming that his cat ate his homework.
It’s nice to see that Kenney has managed to drag himself away from an expense-covered restaurant session in order to pontificate that someone else is to blame for the mess he created in Alberta.
Glad to see Albertans are not taken in by Smiths opportunistic and self serving agenda, they are patriotic people who will send this Premier packing!
“The Conservative vote was split… between some conservative voters voting for a conservative candidate, and other conservative voters voting for a liberal or even leftist candidate. If we hadn’t split the vote between us and everybody else, we would have won.”
If you are running the Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party, don’t be too surprised that SOME people notice that you’ve been eating people’s faces, and move their vote elsewhere.
The vote splitting was caused directly by the Premier and no one else. You support separatists then flip flop to say you want to stay in Canada and the. Put out this useless referendum to promote your ideology that no one wants but your little separatist base just so you can hopefully stay in power as the government!
Maybe you can cross the floor again to save your political career.
I do not vote NDP and vote for who I want as that is my right so all the trolls that want to attack other go ahead as that is your right and give me a chuckle to see how bad our society is now.
Maybe this will wake up some Albertans and actually get them out to vote as that would be a start to maybe getting this province back on track to what it once was in the Conservative world.
What we have know is just a Wildrose mess and no direction but the far radical right that is pathetic.
This is the result of BIAS Media & Miss information. I hate the Liberals and what they have done to Canada over the Last 10 Years, but like the UCP or not, they have made Alberta the Best economy in Canada, the Lowest Taxed, NO PST, Lowest Debt, Balanced Budgets, biggest Jon Creator in Canada, Only growing Population in Canada, BUT thats the Problem. We are seeing more Left wing LOW INFO VOTERS moving to Alberta supporting thge Left, WHY! FREEBEES, Look at Liberals & the NDP, they buy Votes with Giving away your own Tax payer Dollars to buy your VOTE. NDP & LIBERALS are Tax & Spend, but the Takers don’t want to lose the FREEBEES and that why they also don’;t want to seperate because they don’t want to Lose Freebees, they aren’t Albertans they are Low Info NEWBIES that want the Fr5eebees and don’t care about the Billions of DEBT left for are Children ETC!
It is the referendum and Smith’s courting of the far right. I personally despise the use of American Republican style politics here in Canada and in particular Alberta. I normally vote conservative but I won’t be the next provincial election, and I can’t stand Nenshi.
I wish Alberta would separate. I don’t like them retiring in BC and ruining our medical system. My house is twenty feet from the TMX and the workers caused the deaths of many of my elderly neighbors. If they come back I will even the score. We could use our half of the TMX to import cheap gas and the marine terminal to store it. Why the heck would we let a foreign country transport millions of gallons of oil over our land our our coast? Answer: We wouldn’t! They didn’t pay for the pipeline. The Canadian taxpayers did. They’re crazy if they think that we’d let them use it. I H*TE ALBERTANS.
I’d like to know who the hell invited this failure Jason Kenny back into the fold? Beat it, Kenny.
I am confused about how much stock you can put into an election in where only 16% of eligible voters actually voted. To me, it looks like people are tired of politics, period. They just want to be able to feed and shelter their families, have access to health care and be able to create a future for themselves. I realize the irony in that we need politicians to order to guarantee those things. So do a better job of getting people involved. Door knocking once every 4 years is not going to cut it.
Well, keep lying, blaming and denying. Your days are numbered anyway.
It’s not vote splitting, people are upset with the UCP. Wasting money on a referendum that intelligent people don’t want, making driver’s licenses more difficult to renew, and being such a Quisling to Trump.
“The growing brand of rage-farming ‘conservative’ who supports separation and pushes conspiracy theories and fake narratives is UNELECTABLE anywhere,” – Michael Solberg
I think he’s talking about the howler monkeys in here. Anger is not a substitute for intelligence.
Nenshi is a failure as a leader and horrrible debater. A big goofy clown.
Danielle will destroy him in the GE.
There wouldn’t be an ‘upstart Progressive Tory’ party if people were happy with the UCP. Totally Smith’s fault for this loss!
We get to vote on separation (first we vote to vote thanks to silly natives and court ninnies). How is that undemocratic? – the fools come out of the woodwork (or is the Canadian Press looking for fools on purpose?)
Nenshi is right. This had little to do with separation. It had to do with all the negative things Smith and UCP are doing.
It is too bad that the Progressive Tories could not run under the banner Progressive Conservatives. They would have won.
GOES TO SHOW JUST HOW OUT OF TOUCH SMITH, REALLY IS. ROLL ON OCTOBER 19, WHEN THE TRUTH HITS HOME.
Only an extremely lazy journalist would use social media as a source
Being this obsessed with Nenshi’s weight is weird. Criticize his policies if you’ve got something to say. There are a few things off limits when discussing a politican and one is their appearance. The conservatives who do so are classless cruel people who enjoy bullying others.
Only an extremely journalist would use social media as a source
Well the Right Winger opinionated bullies on here, hate to lose to a better Alberta Government Leader, but rather vote for a Corrupt Maga Trumper and all of her continuous Lies.
No wonder the World is becoming scary, it’s because of Right Wingers and their Fascist Attitudes.
MagaTrumper Dani Smut Out….and Naheed Nenshi IN!!!!
Naheed Nenshi for Alberta’s Future Premiere!!!!! Yaaaa!!!!
Yep, I’d go with the vote splitting. If it weren’t for that, it would still be a conservative riding. We can’t have 2 conservative parties. It was a poorly thought out plan that was bound to fail. I agree with @ Dee Ironside on that point.
Subject: The Referendum Question Nobody Seems to Be Asking
Here’s a fact that doesn’t get discussed nearly enough: Danielle Smith wins either way.
If Alberta stays in Canada, she’s still Premier. If Alberta votes for independence, she’s the leader overseeing the biggest political transformation in Alberta’s history.
Where is the political risk for her personally?
It seems the only people taking a real gamble are Albertans.
Yet I don’t think many people have stopped to consider this. The referendum is often framed as a choice between staying in Canada or pursuing independence, but in both scenarios the same government remains in charge of the process and the outcome.
Whether you support or oppose the referendum, shouldn’t more people be talking about that?
And I see a corrupt Kenny with a fat Nenshi desperately trying to bring Alberta back over to left of the political spectrum.
Seriously folks, can you see either of these clowns as the future Premier of Alberta.
Shudder…….
Kenny – if we wanted your opinion we would have kept you are premier! Outside of that go back to your parents basement and stay there!
A classic example of “cutting off your nose to spite your face.” We’ve tried the NDP, didn’t like it. You don’t like the separatists – vote ‘no’ during the referendum. If you protest by voting for a party that got us into a mess the UCP has been gradually, but surely cleaning up, there’s something seriously wrong with you, Calgary-Shaw residents. Look up the definition of insanity.
Wish someone would shut me up
Kenney is not credible as a conservative when he calls for nationalization of oil and gas. Just another politician swimming around ideologically looking for a place where he thinks he’ll be given political power. Shameful.
People have lost trust in the UCP. They have done some stupid things like all governments have. Sure dont want Nenshi as my preimier. He sucked as Calgary Mayor.
Don’t blame a fool who would vote for a fence post, blame the parents.
Hey Ken I’ve been asking those questions of the Liberal – NDP government since 2015. As for the UCP they have kept was more on track than any other province in Canada.
I live in Alberta and yes my wages have improved. Does that make me a fool now?
If my wages did not improve I most likely would have looked for another job with a different employer.
As for ER wait time they would improve if people would stop going to them for none emergency issues and go to clinics with a family doctor. To many people run to the emergency room when it is not needed.
Taxes will never get lower as all three levels of government just take more ever in every budget.
Do I need a big ticket toy? No and if I did then I would get one. Housing is decent and better than other cities and provinces.
Can the UCP do better yes but to say the NDP would do better. I doubt it as we have seen here and other provinces when the NDP are the government.
No brand of government will do better as the taxpayer is the cash cow and until the people demand better it will not change as we need better people to run for the government offices and get away from all the ideology that each party spews out.
@Ken. Alberta is much better since NDP lost the 2019 Alberta election.
I want to ask all the UCP voters if their lives have become any more affordable since the UCP came to office in 2019. Have your wages improved? Have your taxes gone down? Is fuel and groceries cheaper? Can you afford a medical emergency or big ticket toy? Is rent lower? Are wait times down in the ER? If you answered yes to any of those questions you either don’t live in Alberta, or you’re just a fool.
What we are seeing in alberta is what happens when easterners who vote LIBERAL all the time move to alberta because add the Liberal vote to the UCP vote and the UCP would have won over NDP. PLUS, do we REALLY NEED FIVE different parties running in our elections now??? Really???
Isn’t Jason Kenney doing similar of “into the arms of left-centre opponents such as the NDP” with his alliance with Rachel Notley.
Do I need another NDP government no never!
Do I want a separatist Wildrose lead government no never as well.
What we need is a better option than the far left or far right as we have now which is dividing the Province.
We can only hope this wakes up the Premier to get away from the ideology that she is trying to impose just to keep her increasingly smaller base happy as what was proven in this election.
This is similar to when she crossed the floor to join the PC party to save herself and pisssed off enough people that caused the NDP to win the election.
This result falls directly on Smith and no one else.
There is no separation vote in October. It is a vote to see if we should have a separation vote. That’s all.
The last thing we need is another 4 years of NDP debt and failure. Hard pass!
It had nothing to do with separation. It is a reflection of our trust in UCP. It says a lot when anyone else would be better.