Canada’s job market faces further risk if new threatened tariffs hit businesses already reeling from a year of U.S. tariffs and trade war uncertainty, experts say.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced Monday night that tariffs of 50 per cent will take effect next month, targeting dozens of sectors, including Canada’s dairy and agriculture, alcohol and motor vehicle and parts manufacturing.
The tariffs will also hit hundreds of other Canadian products ranging from clothing to finished wood and paper products, hockey sticks, plants and even dog leashes that may have otherwise been shielded by the terms of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
If these new tariffs get implemented in 29 days, Canadian sectors that have been specifically targeted could face a drop in demand as those tariffs translate to higher costs for U.S. customers.
“If you look at the list of targeted items — alcohol products, wood products, certain apparel items, hockey sticks, other sporting goods — you just look at those industries in Canada, and yes, there is a risk to jobs,” says John Boscariol, a partner in the international trade and investment law group at McCarthy Tétrault LLP.
“There is a bit of a delay in seeing the impact in terms of job loss, but unfortunately, as the Trump administration continues to pick off each of these sectors, I expect we’re going to see that trend continue.”
Several economists at major Canadian banks, including BMO, CIBC and TD, said in statements Monday that these targeted sectors amount to roughly five per cent of total exports to the U.S., or $30 billion worth of goods, that could face these additional tariffs of up to 50 per cent.
Andrew DiCapua, principal economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, says that amounts to roughly 100,000 jobs, which could be vulnerable to potential layoffs or reduced hours as a result of less demand.
“This is going to hit a number of different sectors, and if you’re making some of these products and you’re not competitive with a 50 per cent tariff, that’s going to put pressure on your operations.”
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“You’re going to be making less, you’re going to have to maybe cut back on hiring, maybe even you will start to see layoffs.”
The unemployment rate in Canada was last recorded at 6.5 per cent in June, according to Statistics Canada. Although there was some growth among youth, thousands more jobs were lost in manufacturing, agriculture and utilities.
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Some 61,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost since a recent peak in January 2025, including in December 2025, when Algoma Steel let go 1,000 workers as a direct result of U.S. tariff impacts.
The latest tariff threats could also have a negative impact on Canada’s businesses, even those not directly targeted by them.
That’s because the uncertainty of the trade war, and the off-and-on tariff threats over the past year, have led businesses to slow their productivity until there is a clearer path forward, economists say.
That can sometimes result in less job growth and even job losses.
“These are very, very tough times and it makes it very difficult for future planning,” says Dennis Darby, president and CEO of Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters.
“Companies are holding on: on investment, holding on making production decisions because you don’t know where things are headed.”
A summer economic outlook report from Deloitte, released in June, described Canada’s economy as being “on pause” amid the trade uncertainty, and that most businesses are “in a holding pattern as trade uncertainty and the mid-year review of CUSMA weighs on confidence.”
That report was released several weeks before the new tariff threats were announced by the Trump administration.
Darby says those new threats “just adds to the uncertainty and adds to the fragility of our industrial sector in Canada.”
A record number of Canadians moved away and left Canada in 2024, a year before any tariffs.
2025 saw that record broken with an even higher number.
Remember that the Conservatives tried to reference economic facts in parliament prior to the last election campaign, but the Liberals prorogued parliament and delayed the election to make Trump the issue of the election, in order for the Liberals to cling onto power. This is unforgivable. Hundreds of thousands of us saw loved ones leave Canada in 2024 or 2025 prior to tariffs, and we don’t even have a government that wants to address this even remotely.
you don’t need certainty to make money in business. you do need certainty if you’re a communist and want the government to give you your profit margin
Canadians need to realize the reason they are paying more for American products isn’t because of Trump’s tariffs – those tariffs only affect American citizens buying Canadian products. The reason you are paying more is because of the Prime Minister.
One sure fire way to stop paying anything to the USA. Stop all imports and exports. Pay ZERO tariffs. Close the border and tell Trump to pound sand.
I hope more Canadian jobs come to the USA. America is a superior country. Things are doing great down in Texas.
Listen to your leader Elbozos! Look where his rhetoric has gotten us. I think most of you are government workers or live off government donations. See how your tune will change when the private sector dries up and Carney has to cut jobs.
Why are Canadians mad that Trump is doing right for the USA? He isn’t the PM of Canada, that is Elbows Up Carney
Truth you are an idiot enough said LOL
No you rejects. Trump is doing what’s best for america. You hate the man for making his country prosper. If we had a leader we would have negotiated early. But no no no it was elbows up! How’s that working donkeys? Asking for a friend
We can thank Trudeau and Carney for the weak economy in Canada. Almost 11 years of neglect
Anonymous,
Spoken like a true welfare recipient.
If it wasn’t for Trump, we wouldn’t be creating massive infrastructure projects, building up our NATO obligations or cancelling cross border provincial barriers. I am by far not a trump lover, but his rhetoric has finally woken Canada up.
iona truc
well feel free to truc right on out of Canada, traitor, believe me, NO ONE will miss a magat, especially a maple magat
TRUMP 2028, make Canada great again. Nobody here will.