U.S. President Donald Trump’s push to acquire Greenland has made the issue of Canada’s own Arctic sovereignty and security “much more complicated,” experts say, raising questions about whether the U.S. can continue to be a reliable partner in bilateral defence partnerships like NORAD.
Yet many of those same experts warn it would be unwise for Canada to abandon those partnerships and try to go it alone in the Far North — both because of the sheer cost in replacing American military might and the long-term damage that could do to collective North American security.
For now, they say, Canada’s best option may be to just wait out Trump’s presidency.
NORAD said on Monday that it was sending aircraft to the U.S. Pituffik Space Base in northern Greenland, where American- and Canadian-based forces will support “long-planned” activities meant to strengthen defence ties between North America and Denmark.
A NORAD mission dubbed Operation Noble Defender focused on Greenland and North American security was launched in 2018, a year before Trump first publicly expressed his desire to purchase Greenland from Denmark.
Trump has sharply escalated his rhetoric about acquiring the territory this year, threatening U.S. military action if a diplomatic deal isn’t reached. He has repeatedly insisted Denmark can’t defend Greenland and that a U.S. takeover is necessary for American national security, including the future “Golden Dome” missile defence system, which Trump has said Canada will also benefit from.
The threats have further underscored Trump’s desire, laid out in his national security strategy, for U.S. dominance over the Western Hemisphere — putting Canada in a sensitive spot.
Overnight Tuesday, Trump posted on social media what appeared to be an artificial intelligence-created image of a map with the American flag imposed over the U.S., Canada, Greenland and Venezuela.
And Canadians have not forgotten Trump’s repeated threats to make Canada the “51st state.”
While that rhetoric has faded in recent months, Trump told the World Economic Forum in a speech on Wednesday that “Canada lives because of the United States,” addressing Prime Minister Mark Carney directly by adding: “Remember that, Mark.”
NBC News reported over the weekend that Trump has been privately complaining about Canada’s “vulnerability” in the Arctic, although the report said Trump was not publicizing those concerns so long as he views ongoing security negotiations between Canada and the U.S. as “productive.”
Those reported conversations come as Trump pushes for enhanced Arctic security as part of an unprecedented US$1.5-trillion U.S. defence budget, which includes new icebreakers he has said will patrol the waters in the Far North.
“Anything that Canada can do to increase its capabilities and demonstrate a commitment there can help lessen the argument that the Americans need to help defend Canada or be responsible for that territory, and maybe put off any of these really challenging claims about sovereignty. But once the president gets an idea in his head, you never know how long it’s going to stay there.”
NORAD modernization
Speaking to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, Carney said Canada “calls for focused talks to achieve our shared objectives of security and prosperity in the Arctic,” including partnerships with Baltic and Nordic allies in NATO.
He told reporters in Doha, Qatar on Sunday that Canada was doing its part.
Carney said Tuesday that Canada is on track to double its overall defence spending by the end of the decade, with “unprecedented” investments in Arctic security, including “boots on the ice.”
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The prime minister has highlighted recent strategic security partnerships signed with European and Indo-Pacific nations, including joining the EU’s SAFE defence procurement program, while also prioritizing domestic procurement and manufacturing in a bid to boost Canada’s defence industrial sector — all in an effort to move away from U.S. dependency.
But Richard Shimooka, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute who studies defence policy, warned Carney needs to remember the ongoing necessity to continue partnering with the U.S. in certain areas, particularly on NORAD.
“There is no getting out of this relationship,” he said.
Even if Canada wanted to extricate itself from NORAD, experts say, it would take over a decade at least and billions of extra dollars to adequately shore up its defences in the Arctic.
“There is no scenario under which we, Canada alone, can defend our portion of North American aerospace domain by ourselves with the existing capabilities that we have,” said Balkan Devlen, director of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Transatlantic Program.
An example of how long it has taken for Canada to update its NORAD capabilities was recently revealed in government documents tabled in Parliament last year on a new Arctic military satellite communication network known as the Enhanced Satellite Communications Project — Polar (ESCP-P).
The network is part of the nearly $40-billion NORAD modernization plan Ottawa announced in 2022. The 20-year plan includes new over-the-horizon radar systems to detect approaching threats, enhanced communication networks and new defensive capabilities such as fighter jets and submarines.
Documents tabled in Parliament last month state the current scheduled date for the ESCP-P to come online is 2037. Full operational capability is expected in 2041, the documents said, although the Department of National Defence has been searching for ways to speed up the project.
National Defence documents tabled in September say $7.6 million was spent on the project as of May 2025. The government last month signed a strategic partnership with the Canadian firms Telesat and MDA Space to develop the network.
Most of the NORAD modernization projects are still in their early stages, but the department said 15 will be “costed, prioritized and accelerated as necessary” by the end of this year.
F-35 review delays
Ottawa, meanwhile, has yet to announce the results of a review into its $19-billion deal to buy up to 88 F-35 stealth fighters from U.S.-based Lockheed Martin.
The review was announced shortly after Carney took office in March and was spurred by Trump’s tariff and sovereignty threats against Canada, prompting bids from European firms like Saab to provide the needed jets instead.
Shimooka said sticking with the F-35 was another example of where Canada needs alignment with the U.S., despite the current tensions with Trump.
“The clear reality is that if you take away from the F-35 program, you are just shooting yourself in the foot industrially,” he said, pointing to thousands of Canadian jobs reliant on training and repairs that would be upended. “You’re not helping develop a top-end Canadian industry — not to mention you’re pissing off the Americans.”
Sayle said Canada still won’t be insulated from Trump’s ever-changing “whims” no matter how much it raises its defence spending and speeds up procurement.
He pointed to Trump’s use of tariffs to coerce Canada and other nations to combat fentanyl trafficking — which didn’t stop after Canada announced new border security and fentanyl-related measures — as an example of that reality.
“The Canadians have options, they can work with who seem to be the rational and regular partners in Washington, but the president has an ability to deeply complicate that by asking for things that Canada can’t deliver,” he said.
That dynamic may change after Trump leaves office, or even as soon as this year’s midterm elections in the U.S., which could see Trump’s Republican Party lose control of Congress, Shimooka said.
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