While Conservatives historically have enjoyed widespread support across much of Alberta, there are some urban ridings during this federal election where the race is not a foregone conclusion.
The Liberals are widely seen to be leading in the polls nationally, with the Conservatives in second place and the Bloc Québécois, NDP and Greens trailing behind.
But will that translate to more votes on the Prairies?
Global News spoke with Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt in Calgary and Edmonton-based political analyst John Brennan for their take on the ridings to watch in Alberta’s capital city.
“There’s a handful of ridings that are in play in Edmonton. The difference between Edmonton and Calgary is some of those ridings are three-party races,” said Bratt, explaining while the federal NDP has low chances in Calgary, there are several ridings in Edmonton where their candidates are the incumbent or have a high profile already.
In recent federal elections, Edmonton Centre has flip-flopped between the Liberals and Conservatives.
“I expect the Liberal candidate in Edmonton Centre (Eleanor Olszewski) to benefit from the Liberal surge and the collapse of the NDP vote in Alberta,” Brennan said, who predicted she will win on Monday.
“She is going to benefit from the Liberal surge, and she is going pick up a lot of votes from voters who voted NDP in 2021.”
That said, it’s not a two-candidate race. Former Edmonton Public School Board chair Trisha Estabrooks has entered the fray for the NDP.
“The wild card in Edmonton Centre is that Trisha Estabrooks, the NDP candidate, has run the strongest campaign of the three main candidates,” Brennan said.
The Conservative candidate in that riding is Sayid Ahmed, a senior director in the Alberta government’s health department.
“If there’s vote splitting on the left between the NDP and the Liberals, that may allow a Conservative victory,” Bratt said, adding that could be the case in Edmonton Griesbach as well.
That riding may see one of the closest races in Edmonton.
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Incumbent NDP candidate Blake Desjarlais is up against Kerry Diotte, the Conservative Party of Canada candidate. Diotte is a former journalist and city councillor who represented the riding from 2015 to 2021, when he lost his seat to Desjarlais in a very tight race.
“Blake Desjarlais only won by 1,468 votes in 2021 and the Liberals had a very weak candidate in 2021,” Brennan said. “This time, the Liberals have a very strong candidate — Patrick Lennox.”
Lennox holds a PhD in Canada-U.S. relations, has published books on the subject, and worked as a civilian RCMP employee with high-level security clearance for many years.
“If he does well, he will be taking votes away from Desjarlais and that could help Kerry Diotte come up the middle to win,” Brennan speculated.
Bratt also agreed if Lennox pulls in some of the left-leaning voters, Diotte could secure the most votes.
South across the river, both Bratt and Brennan believe the NDP will easily hold onto Edmonton-Strathcona.
For decades the riding had gone to the Conservatives, however that changed when the NDP’s Linda Duncan defeated Conservative incumbent Rahim Jaffer in 2011. The riding has leaned left ever since.
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“They’ve had Jagmeet Singh in there campaigning. They’ve had Rachel Notley — who represented Strathcona provincially for years — campaigning, ” Bratt said, predicting a NDP win.
“I think Strathcona may now be the safest federal NDP seat in all of Canada.”
Brennan agreed, although he predicts NDP incumbent Heather McPherson’s margin of victory will be less than what it was last time.
In 2021, she won 61 per cent of the district vote in 2021 — the largest margin of victory among elected NDP MPs in the 44th parliament. She is up against businessman and Edmonton International Raceway owner Ron Thiering running for the Liberals, and registered nurse Miles Berry, the Conservative candidate.
In the 2021 federal election, the Conservatives got 55 per cent of the overall vote in Alberta, although Brennan noted as of Thursday they were currently polling at 59 per cent.
Meanwhile, Brennan said support for the Liberals in Alberta has doubled this time around, to about 30 per cent — at the expense of the federal NDP.
“Just as we have seen nationally, the collapse of the NDP is benefitting the Liberals. You know the old saying: ‘A rising tide lifts all boats.'”
“They are likely to elect MP’s in the areas where they have traditionally had strength,” Brennan said. “That’s in Edmonton Centre and the southeast quadrant of the city — Edmonton Southeast and Edmonton Gateway.”
Federal boundaries have changed since the 2021 election with the former riding of Edmonton Mill Woods now split into two: Edmonton Gateway and Edmonton Southeast.
The Conservative Party of Canada is being represented by lawyer Jagsharan Singh Mahal in Edmonton Southeast, and the NDP’s candidate is nurse Harpreet Grewal. Former member of Parliament and cabinet minister, and current Edmonton Mayor Amarjeet Sohi is running as the Liberal candidate.
“He’s not a very popular mayor right now, but that’s city-wide. In that constituency, he’s still popular. So that’s one that I’m really watching,” Bratt said. Brennan expects Sohi to win.
“He is very well-known in that part of the city and he is going to benefit from the Liberal surge and the NDP collapse,” he said.
Last election, Sohi went up against Conservative Tim Uppal, who because of the riding re-distribution is now running in Edmonton Gateway.
“It seems hard to believe that Tim Uppal could be in trouble in Edmonton Gateway. He is one of the two deputy leaders of the Conservative Party of Canada, and he is renowned for his political organizing abilities,” Brennan said.
The race in Edmonton Gateway has had some interesting twists, however.
Rod Loyola was in the middle of his third term as an NDP member of the Alberta legislature when he left provincial politics to run for the Liberals, only to be dropped a few weeks ago when a 2009 video surfaced in which he showed support for terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah at a protest.
The rapper-turned-politician said he didn’t think an intro at a hip-hop segment 16 years ago would get him “cancelled” but that he unequivocally condemns killings, terrorism and abduction.
“The Liberals thought they had a chance in this riding before the election was called,” Brennan said. “That’s why they persuaded Rod Loyola to step down as the NDP MLA for Edmonton Ellerslie to run for them in Edmonton Gateway.”
The Liberals replaced Loyola at the last minute with lawyer Jeremy Hoefsloot.
“The new Liberal candidate was parachuted into Edmonton Gateway and he only started campaigning about two weeks into the election campaign, but if there is a red wave on Monday evening Hoefsloot might just pull off an upset,” Brennan said.
In total, he expects the Conservatives to win Edmonton Northwest with new candidate Billy Morin, the former chief of Enoch Cree Nation. He also expects the CPC to hold onto Edmonton Manning with 10-year incumbent Ziad Aboultaif, Edmonton West with incumbent Kelly McCauley; and Edmonton Riverbend with incumbent Matt Jeneroux. Bratt agreed.
“Everywhere else, the NDP could play a spoiler and allow the Conservatives to win,” he said.
That said, it all comes down to who shows up at the polls when Canadians will choose their next government on Monday.
That’s after a record-breaking number of voters turned out to advance polls over the Easter long weekend.
Elections Canada said the four days of advance polling between Friday and Monday set a new record for turnout, with 7.3 million people casting ballots early. That’s up 25 per cent from the 5.8 million people who took part in advance voting in the 2021 federal election.
For information on your riding and polling station, visit the Elections Canada website.
Election night coverage
Decision Canada, Global News’ network-wide election night broadcast, will air live on April 28 across the country, starting at 5 p.m. MT.
The special will be hosted by Dawna Friesen alongside senior national affairs correspondent Eric Sorenson, and chief political correspondent David Akin, who will bring viewers up-to-date information throughout the evening and results across Canada’s key ridings.
Joining the election night team is host of The West Block, Mercedes Stephenson, as well political panelists including former Minister of Labour of Canada, Seamus O’Regan, former Minister of Transport of Canada, Lisa Raitt, former Shadow Minister for Finance of Canada, Nathen Cullen, former leader of The Bloc Québécois, Gilles Duceppe, and more.
Covering the campaign headquarters on election night are Global News journalists Mackenzie Gray, Touria Izri, Neetu Garcha, and Mike Amstrong. Ben Mulroney, Host of the nationally syndicated radio show, The Ben Mulroney Show, will also be joining the team with coverage and analysis from the Conservative Party Headquarters.
Corus Talk Radio network will air election coverage across it network hosted by Ben O’Hara Byrne and featuring live analysis of the results and the impact the decision will have on Canadians.
Coverage will air on Global TV and will also be streamed live on globalnews.ca, the Global TV app and YouTube.
— with files from The Canadian Press
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