After weeks of electioneering, Alberta’s provincial election is officially underway.
Monday morning, chief electoral officer Glen Resler confirmed writs were issued for the election after the legislature was dissolved. Albertans go to the polls on May 29.
The two parties most eyes will be on were in Calgary Monday at the start of the four-week campaign, the city expected to be the election battleground.
Taxes and savings
Flanked by Calgary United Conservative MLAs in a southeast suburb, UCP Leader Danielle Smith announced the party’s first promise of the election period: a proposed eight per cent tax bracket for income under $60,000.
“To me, that is something every Albertan can enjoy and take advantage of,” Smith said.
She said that would mean $760 going to each taxpayer above that threshold and would be a 20 per cent reduction in provincial income taxes below that amount. Smith said that would cost the province $1 billion.
“I believe the cut will pay for itself,” she said.
Smith reiterated the UCP’s policy of having any potential personal or business tax increase go through a referendum process.
Smith also announced an extension of the fuel tax rebate through the rest of 2023. That 13 cent per litre savings at the pumps started on Jan. 1.
And the UCP leader promised to “axe the carbon tax altogether” but did not go into further detail.
On March 25, 2021, the Supreme Court of Canada ruled the national carbon pricing law was constitutional, after provinces like Alberta tried to challenge the law.
The federal backstop was put in place in provinces that did not put in a carbon pricing framework of their own that met federal minimums. On May 30, 2019, Alberta’s previous carbon pricing which met those minimums was repealed.
Smith and the UCP have yet to use their Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act, which received royal assent on Dec. 15, 2022.
Health care, schools, economy
Flanked by candidates and NDP MLAs in Platform Calgary, Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley zeroed in on improving healthcare in the province.
“It means healthcare that is here for the public, for Albertans, not for shareholders,” Notley said.
Notley reiterated her party’s promise of connecting one million Albertans with family doctors.
She also promised to better resource the education system and diversify the economy.
“It is not, as the UCP likes to claim, a long-term luxury, but rather diversification is an absolute necessity,” Notley said. “We won’t pit the environment against the economy – that doesn’t get us anywhere.”
The UCP leader took aim at the Alberta NDP’s tenure in government, a tenure that coincided with the oil price plunging in the mid 2010s, saying the UCP “restored Alberta’s tax advantage” by dropping the corporate tax rate from the Canada-average 12 per cent to eight per cent.
“Just because you increase tax rates doesn’t mean you increase tax revenue,” Smith said, of the drop in corporate tax revenue from the oil price-induced recession.
Notley admitted the NDP’s last term in office was one that could have used more input and consultation from Albertans, saying “the commitment that we have going forward is so that is exactly what they can count on from us.”
She also spoke about the party’s plan to address a continued affordability crisis, promising more details in the days to come.
“We’ve already committed that there will be no income tax increases over the next four-year period,” the NDP leader said.
Notley promised to reindex and raise benefits for families, seniors and people with disabilities, freeze auto insurance rates, restore rental supplements, freeze university tuition – reversals of previous UCP policies.
And she said an NDP government would house 40,000 more Albertans.
The future of the province was another common theme in both leaders’ Day 1 speeches.
“At its heart, this election is a choice between moving forward or going back,” Smith said.
“This campaign is actually about giving families hope,” Notley said. “It is time for that hope, it is time for stability, it is time for common sense and, yes, it is also time for trusted leadership.”
A two-party race
Chief electoral officer Glen Resler said in a release that nearly 20,000 election officers are being recruited to run polls in the 87 constituencies across the province.
It’s expected to be a two-party race between the UCP and NDP, with no other parties holding seats in the legislature, leaving the Liberals, Alberta Party and Greens among other groups fighting to break out from the margins.
MRU political scientist Duane Bratt said it was no coincidence the two parties announced the major planks in their platforms in Calgary on Day 1 of the election campaign.
“Both realize how important Calgary is,” he said.
Bratt said while there are battleground ridings around the province that have a chance of flipping orange to the NDP, Calgary has the largest collection of those constituencies. That presents a challenging path to winning the election for them.
“It’s still possible for the NDP to win Calgary and lose the election if they don’t win it in big enough terms,” Bratt said.
David Coletto of Abacus Data said his polling shows the two parties are neck-and-neck, results which have been shown in other polls. He thinks that may affect voter turnout.
“I think there’s going to be a high level of attention being paid to this campaign because of how close it is and because of how close Albertans think it is – and that’s the most important part of that,” Coletto told Global News.
Bratt described Calgary as a “partisan conservative city,” but the UCP is facing issues with Smith as the leader.
“If they had another candidate – whether it was a generic candidate, whether it was a Travis Toews or, for that, matter if it was a Jason Kenney – the UCP wouldn’t be in as (much) trouble in Calgary as they are with Smith,” he said. “So this is a Smith problem.”
“That is why I think they want people to vote based on the party and not on the leader here. And that’s why the NDP sees opportunity.”
Like other elections, issues are anticipated to play a role in how people vote.
“That question of competence, of judgment, and just of comfort, I think is going to play a big part ultimately, and how a lot of people who right now are on the sidelines are sitting on the fence, not sure where they’re going to vote, ultimately cast their ballot,” Coletto said.
“If you believe that healthcare is the most important issue, you’re unlikely to vote for the UCP. Likewise, if you believe in getting rid of the carbon tax and tax cuts as the most important issue, you’re not going to vote for the NDP,” said Bratt.
It would be a tightrope path to victory for Notley, who is angling to become the first premier to serve broken terms. She led the NDP to victory over the Progressive Conservatives in 2015, only to have the PCs join forces with their right-centre rival Wildrose Party to win government under Jason Kenney with the UCP in 2019.
The NDP need to win most of the 26 seats in traditionally conservative Calgary to overcome expected UCP wins elsewhere.
The NDP says the UCP tax paradise was a mirage given its backdoor measures — including hiking user fees, clawing back ticket revenue from police and de-indexing personal income tax rates — led to higher costs for families, notably in sky-high auto insurance rates.
Smith’s UCP also carries the baggage of multiple scandals and controversies under both Smith and her predecessor Jason Kenney.
Under Kenney, the UCP went to war with the health profession, tearing up the master working agreement with physicians and seeking wage cuts to nurses during the COVID-19 pandemic. The government also fired the elections official investigating the party.
During the pandemic, Kenney invoked the ire of the far right wing of his party over vaccine mandates and health restrictions, leading to a membership uprising that effectively forced Kenney out last fall due to a tepid 51 per cent show of support at a leadership review.
Enter Smith, a former Wildrose Party leader turned radio talk show host and an ardent supporter of the anti-vax movement. She questioned mainstream science and provoked controversy when she said early-stage cancer patients must take responsibility for their illness.
As premier, she fired the board of Alberta Health Services and the chief medical officer of health, blaming them for overwhelmed hospitals during the pandemic. She called those unvaccinated against COVID-19 the most discriminated group she has seen in her lifetime.
Most recently, she has been under fire for taking an active role in court cases over COVID-19 health violations, urging justice officials to consider whether they are worth pursuing. The provincial ethics commissioner is also investigating a phone call in which Smith is overheard offering to assist an accused with his upcoming criminal trial tied to a border blockade against pandemic measures.
–with files from Bill Graveland and Colette Derworwiz, The Canadian Press
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