Provincial election race tightens as Liberals gain ground on PCs: Ipsos poll

The provincial election race is tightening as polling day approaches, with the Ontario Liberals now in striking distance of Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives, a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News shows.

The survey, conducted between April 13 and April 14, found that if the election were held tomorrow, the PC Party would receive 35 per cent of the decided public vote. The Liberals, led by Steven Del Duca, would receive 32 per cent.

Andrea Horwath and the Ontario NDP would win 23 per cent of the decided vote and the Green Party, led by Mike Schreiner, would receive five per cent.

The Ipsos poll can be viewed online.

The new figures represent a boost for the Liberals and Greens and a slight drop in support for both the PCs and NDP.

Support for the Ontario Liberals grew four points, according to Ipsos, while there was a three-point drop in PC support. The NDP are down one point and the Greens are up by one, the data shows.

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Poll results also show that five per cent of people would vote for another party and 14 per cent remain undecided.

Seven per cent said they would not vote.

The Ontario General Election will be held on June 2. The writ has not yet dropped, but when it does it will signal the beginning of the official campaign period and the dissolution of the legislature.

Voters split by age and location

The PCs maintain a strong lead over other parties among older voters. A total of 43 per cent of those aged 55 and older said they would vote for the PC Party, compared to 28 per cent for the Liberals or 21 per cent for the NDP.

The PCs led among people aged 35 to 54 with 35 per cent, compared to 30 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP stood at 23 per cent and the Greens had seven per cent support, the survey suggests.

By contrast, 39 per cent of those respondents aged 18 to 34-years-old indicated they would vote for the Ontario Liberals. The Ontario NDP came second in that age group with 25 per cent and the PCs with 24 per cent, the poll found.

Voting intention split fairly evenly by gender, with the Tories marginally more popular among men than women. The Liberals held a three-point lead in male voting intentions compared to women; 26 per cent of women said they would vote for the NDP, compared to 20 per cent of men.

In the battleground GTA-905 ridings, the PCs hold a razor-thin margin, the polling shows.

A total of 37 per cent of GTA-905 voters would back the Progressive Conservatives if the election were held tomorrow, compared to 36 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP scored 19 per cent support in the poll and the Greens had five per cent.

In the City of Toronto itself, the 416 area, the Liberals hold a significant lead. Del Duca’s party polled at 38 per cent, compared to 31 per cent for the PCs. The NDP scored 21 per cent and the Greens five.

Other areas in the province break down as follows:

Southwest Ontario

• PC: 30 per cent
• Liberal: 28 per cent
• NDP: 27 per cent
• Green Party: 8
• Other parties: 6 per cent

Central Ontario

• PC: 46 per cent
• Liberal: 22 per cent
• NDP: 25 per cent
• Other parties: 7 per cent

Eastern Ontario

• PC: 48 per cent
• Liberal: 29 per cent
• NDP: 17 per cent
• Green Party: 1 per cent
• Other parties: 4 per cent

Northern Ontario

• PC: 30 per cent
• NDP: 34 per cent
• Liberal: 23 per cent
• Green Party: 7 per cent
• Other parties: 5 per cent

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Despite a four-point drop in support for the PCs, 52 per cent of Ontarians approve of the performance of Doug Ford’s government. The approval figures represent a two-point increase, according to Ipsos.

Four in 10 people, or 41 per cent, are close to the opinion that the PCs deserve re-election, the polling found.

Ford also remains the popular pick for best Premier.

A total of 42 per cent of people said he would make the best leader, down two percent, while 24 per cent said Del Duca would be the best Premier. Thirty-three per cent believe Horwath would be Ontario’s best leader.

METHODOLOGY: This Ipsos poll was conducted between April 13 and 14, 2022 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n=1,001 Ontarians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the population according to census information. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would be had all Ontarians been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

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