COVID-19 models released by governments are ‘not a crystal ball’, says Canadian math professor

This week, Saskatchewan joined Alberta, Ontario and Quebec by releasing “what-if” scenarios related to COVID-19 in their province.

While the data may appear grim, a Canadian mathematics professor cautions the public while analyzing the numbers as they are just scenarios — not predictions.

“It’s important to remember that any model is not a crystal ball,” said Daniel Coombs, a mathematics professor at the University of British Columbia.

Models released in all four provinces vary even when compared to the federal government’s model. However, the equations are the same.

Coombs says it comes down to two key factors: the course of the disease and how it spreads.

“It’s very hard to know what the numbers are especially for an emerging pathogen like COVID-19,” Coombs said.

Saskatchewan based its low- and mid-range scenarios on experiences in Wuhan and Italy. While the Prairies are a very different environment than the clusters seen in urban centres, Coombs says that doesn’t matter when it comes to modelling.

“The most important thing we need to know on average (is) how many new infections does a single infected person cause,” Coombs said.

After finding that number, social distancing measures are then factored in, said Coombs.

In Saskatchewan’s low-case scenario, Saskatchewan could see close to 3,100 deaths. Alberta’s projections are similar in their low-case scenario model, despite its population being even higher.

“It could be that the Alberta model took a slightly more positive or aggressive stance that social distancing was going to have a bigger effect in Alberta,” Coombs said.

Ontario and Quebec only made end-of-month projections, but Coombs said short-term scenarios are easier to predict. However, it’s too soon to tell how things will play out.

“The models at this point don’t have the degree of precision going forward because there’s uncertainty about how social distancing will be taken up or how it will continue,” Coombs said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cautioned the public that we’re in this for the long haul.

The federal model has predicted the first wave will end this summer, but further waves are possible in the coming months.

“Even after we’re through this first wave, we will need to remain vigilant,” said Trudeau during a press conference on Thursday.

Trudeau said Canadians won’t be able to return to life as they knew it before the pandemic until a vaccine is available.

“Normality, as it was before, will not come back full-on until we get a vaccine for this. … That will be a very long way off.”

With files from Allison Bamford and Beatrice Britneff.

Questions about COVID-19? Here are some things you need to know:

Health officials caution against all international travel. All international travellers returning to Saskatchewan are required to self-isolate for 14 days in case they develop symptoms and to prevent spreading the virus to others.

Symptoms can include fever, cough and difficulty breathing — very similar to a cold or flu. Some people can develop a more severe illness. People most at risk of this include older adults and people with severe chronic medical conditions like heart, lung or kidney disease. If you develop symptoms, contact public health authorities.

To prevent the virus from spreading, experts recommend frequent handwashing and coughing into your sleeve. They also recommend minimizing contact with others, staying home as much as possible and maintaining a distance of two metres from other people if you go out.

For full COVID-19 coverage from Global News, click here.