If Maxime Bernier has truly come to a realization that his commitment to his own principles preclude him from any further involvement in the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), then good for him. If, however, what we witnessed this week was merely the political machinations of a bitter, selfish, and petulant man, then Bernier deserves nothing less than political obscurity.
Ultimately, though, this is now a test of Andrew Scheer’s leadership. It is obvious that the CPC stands the best chance of unseating the Liberals in the next election, and that drawing votes away from the CPC only increases the likelihood of back-to-back Liberal majorities. If significant numbers of conservatives are prepared to take that risk anyway, then that is a damning indictment of the leader.
ANALYSIS: Conservatives may yet withstand Bernier’s gift to Justin Trudeau
It’s indeed the case that the CPC leadership vote could hardly have been any closer. A more resounding Scheer victory would have certainly curtailed Bernier’s own appetite for troublemaking. Maybe Scheer could have done more to keep Bernier in the fold. Perhaps Bernier could have accepted his defeat and been more open to compromise.
We may never know the full extent to which either side might have extended olive branches, but the fact is none of it should matter. There is no logical reason why Conservative voters should suddenly abandon the party this close to an election, especially with the party closing the gap with the Liberals in most polls. If Bernier is going to command a following it’s because Scheer has not given those voters a reason to stay.
WATCH: Scheer doesn’t anticipate any more MPs will quit Conservative Party following Bernier departure
There are some parallels (and some clear differences) to the situation in Alberta where a controversial rabble-rouser has found himself on the outs from Jason Kenney’s United Conservative Party and decided to launch his own right-wing party. But Alberta conservatives are, for the most part, solidly united behind Kenney and this new upstart party is unlikely to gain any traction.
Scheer does not have the same kind of devotion that Kenney has. For that matter, Scheer does not have the same sort of devotion that Stephen Harper had.
On policy, there is virtually no difference between Scheer and Harper. For all of Bernier’s claims that Scheer has abandoned conservatives or moved the party away from conservatism, the CPC is exactly where it’s been for years. Everything Bernier said this week about the party was equally true a decade ago.
Yes, Conservatives should oppose supply management and other protectionist policies. Conservatives should oppose corporate welfare and government monopolies. But let’s not pretend that the party’s approach on any of these issues is new or has changed in any substantive way.
The difference is indifference. Harper was hated and feared by the right people. Bernier may not be feared, but his antics of late have angered the right people. Scheer’s seems to be neither feared nor hated, which leaves a lot of conservatives feeling apathetic about him.
That doesn’t mean that Scheer should cravenly adopt Bernier’s ideas or start churning out dank memes on social media to “trigger the libs.” But maybe he could stop coming across as so cautious and calculated. Conservatives clearly don’t want a milquetoast leader.
Bernier’s clumsy and awkward foray into the diversity/multiculturalism/immigration debate may have fallen way short of actually diagnosing a problem and offering a solution, but it tapped into a sense of unease that a lot of conservatives are feeling. Much of this unease is likely a byproduct of the ongoing situation of illegal/irregular border-crossers coming into Canada and claiming asylum. Scheer obviously has a capable shadow minister he can lean on to address this file, but it would be helpful to his cause if he could articulate a position as to why this all matters to him and how he proposes to address it.
As for supply management, Scheer would be wise to acknowledge the unease many Canadians are feeling about the future of NAFTA and growing willingness to make concessions on this policy. What’s the downside in Scheer showing a willingness to be flexible and a determination to get a deal done with the Americans? By appearing so intransigent on this issue, but wishy-washy on so many other issues, it only serves to play into Bernier’s narrative.
As it stands, Scheer still has his caucus behind him, his party has a massive war chest, and hundreds of conservatives across the country are jockeying to stand as CPC candidates under his leadership. Bernier has none of this. It should be no contest. If it turns out to be one, then that’s on Andrew Scheer.
Rob Breakenridge is host of “Afternoons with Rob Breakenridge” on Global News Radio 770 Calgary and a commentator for Global News.
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