Ranging from blinding Nor’easters (like those seen in February this year) to Hurricane Juan, Nova Scotia is no stranger to destructive weather, and the Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) says the upcoming Atlantic season is set to be an above-normal one.
The centre rolled out their Atlantic hurricane forecast on Thursday with the key message, “We must always be prepared.”
Bob Robichaud, a warning preparedness meteorologist, said as many as 17 named storms could take place.
READ MORE: Atlantic Canada can expect 4 hurricanes this year: forecasters
He said numbers released by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predict between 11 and 17 named storms with five to nine reaching hurricane status and two to four at major hurricane status.
“So, as you can see how that compares with what would be a typical year with 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, the prediction is for an active hurricane season for 2017,” Robichaud said.
According to Robichaud, warmer Atlantic water temperatures and a weak or non-existent El Nino will be factors influencing the upcoming season, with peak activity for hurricanes in August, September and October. The region’s season begins June 1 and runs until the end of November.
WATCH: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration along with the National Weather Service are predicting a “near normal” hurricane season. Chris Pallone reports.
There is a chance of El Nino this year, he said, but said it’s uncertain whether the region will be in an El Nino by the peak of hurricane season. El Nino climate cycles — the warming of water in the Pacific Ocean — typically damper hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Robichaud said the CHC did an analysis to determine how many make it into the centre’s response zone — typically 35-40 per cent of storms that form in the Atlantic make it into the zone, which means “four to six storms” entering the zone in 2017.
Statistics released show last year there were seven hurricanes from Category 1 to 5, with four reaching major hurricane status of Category 3 to 5. Of those, only three made it into the response zone.
The first storm of the season was tropical storm Arlene and the centre says there are several to be used throughout 2017, including Cindy, Dawn, Emily and Franklin. One name that won’t be used is Matthew, which was retired in 2016.
READ MORE: NOAA predicts near-normal 2016 Atlantic hurricane season
Robichaud said it’s important for people to be aware of risks in their area — the threats along coastal areas will be different than for those living inland.
“This is just another opportunity to remind people, ‘Hey, it’s hurricane season and it’s another opportunity to get ready,'” he said.
“Now is the time to prepare.”
—With files from The Canadian Press
Comments