How Trump’s ‘whack-a-mole’ trade war with Canada, others fuelled blue wave

The soaring cost of living in the U.S. led to a resounding defeat for Republicans in the midterms, with the U.S. trade war on Canada and much of the world fuelling the blue wave across the country, experts say.

The trade war levied by President Donald Trump starting last year led to increased prices on consumer goods and a rise in inflation. A New York Federal Reserve report last month showed by February 2026, tariffs contributed 2.9 per cent to goods price inflation and would have fallen without tariffs.

That weighed on voters because it was the opposite of what he campaigned on, said Garrett Martin, president and CEO of the Maine Center for Economic Policy.

“The whole approach of this administration as it relates to global trade and to addressing the concerns of the American public as it related to increasing costs has turned out to be a little bit of a whack-a-mole,” said Martin.

He referenced an 18 per cent drop in forestry product exports in Maine as one such example.

As a result of the tariffs, a number of Republicans in border states and across the country saw defeats including Maine Sen. Susan Collins and Republican candidate Mike Rogers in Michigan.

Michigan has seen one of the largest cost for U.S. residents due to Trump’s tariffs, with the U.S. National Taxpayers Union Foundation reporting the duties have cost the Wolverine state an estimated US$27 billion since January 2025. That amounts to about $6,516 per Michigan household.

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Trump has hit Canada with tariffs on a number of goods, including auto, steel and aluminum, with Michigan being the third-most hardest hit state. Rogers released campaign ads urging the president to end the trade war even though he was previously in favour of the tariffs.

In the days leading up to Tuesday, polls showed El-Sayed leading by two to five points on average. The Associated Press projects the Democrat won with 52.5 per cent compared to Rogers’ 45.5 per cent with 97 per cent of votes reporting.

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Maine’s swing from Collins took place days after the Republican got the president to sign an order removing 50 per cent tariffs on some Canadian agricultural and forestry products hitting the state’s industries. She lost by more than seven points.

Drew Fagan, a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy in Toronto, said those efforts by Republicans to show themselves as opposers of tariffs appeared to have little effect.

“Tariffs are part and parcel of why inflation has gone up and why the people are feeling pinched,” he said.

“The challenge for Republican candidates or the position they put themselves in, and it’s been a long time coming, is they basically agreed to whatever Donald Trump wanted, including in Congress which has responsibility for tariff policy … and deferred to Trump throughout the global trade war.”

But it wasn’t just border states that saw swings on Tuesday.

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Long-time red states like Texas, Iowa and Texas also elected Democratic senators and even governors.

“It also directly increased costs … for farm equipment and automobile parts where that whole process is disrupted by this tariff regime,” said Martin.

“So here you are, you’re a farmer in the Midwest, say Iowa, and you’re saying, ‘well wait a second, to repair this piece of equipment … the cost of them has gone up dramatically.'”

Maryscott Greenwood, a former chief of staff to former U.S. ambassador to Canada Gordon Giffin, said the clash with Canada has been a kitchen table issue for many Americans.

She added the trade war and Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty have also led to fewer people travelling south of the border, causing a hit to tourism.

“It’s a piece of affordability and it’s the piece of the economy,” said Greenwood, who founded government relations firm Ottawa Street Strategy and was former CEO of the Canadian American Business Council.

“If you’re the mayor of any community that is used to receiving Canadian snowbirds or just a border community that used to receive Canadian shoppers or sports fans, you’ve seen your bottom line drop precipitously.”

The AP Voter Poll conducted across all 50 states found voters pinned the blame on Trump for his tariffs, his war in Iran and his unfulfilled campaign promise two years ago to bring down prices.

Following his party’s defeat Tuesday, Trump said he was willing to work with Democrats on some issues but Fagan cautioned it’s likely the president would take his own path in trade especially with Canada.

“Trump took a different philosophy into trade negotiations, even going back to his first term which was fundamentally, I win most if you lose most,” Fagan said. “Let’s see if he moves back to something more of a win-win scenario, that is still possible.”

—with files from The Associated Press