ANALYSIS: Cole Perfetti’s next contract a conundrum for Winnipeg Jets

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Among the extensive list of decisions the Winnipeg Jets front office will need to make this off-season, the one involving Cole Perfetti could be the most fascinating.

Set to become a restricted free agent for the second time in his career on July 1, Perfetti’s next contract — and where it lands in terms of both money and length — will be challenging to predict.

Of course, there are several avenues this process could take — anything from a second straight two-year bridge deal to a long-term agreement that will keep the 24-year-old in Winnipeg into his 30s.

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Now, based on his past performance sheet, there is nothing to suggest the Jets will reach out and offer anything close to a five-year deal or more, which will then force the former first-round draft pick to again bet on himself with something in the neighbourhood of a one- or two-year agreement that then gets him to unrestricted free agency.

That new contract will assuredly include a raise on the $3.2 million he made each of the last two seasons, but the complexity of determining a satisfactory market value for both parties is where this gets complicated. After all, Perfetti is a difficult player to evaluate.

Following a career-high 50 points last season and posting nearly 20 goals in each of the last two years, an ankle injury this year stunted him offensively and those numbers dropped considerably. In other words, what is his true value? And has he reached his ceiling, or is his production still trending toward a real breakout year in what would be his fifth full-time NHL season coming up in September?

And for the record, it’s not like the Ontario product hasn’t been given an opportunity, as his top-six forward position with power-play time cannot be overlooked. But is there still more there? Is he a 25- or 30-goal scorer at some point?

It’s that type of forecasting in this situation that makes reading the tea leaves on the Perfetti file a little murky — but also, from the outside looking in, one of the team’s more fascinating front office decisions to make this off-season.