Each federal Canadian political party has a difficult path to form government

WATCH: A look at the Liberal Party convention

Although it’s difficult at this point to evaluate which political party will likely form government –either a minority or majority- in the next election, we can examine the national political landscape for some guidance into what’s probable.

The Conservative’s path to another majority government remains difficult, particularly with the Harper government polling around 30 per cent for the past year. To maintain a majority, the Conservatives have to either repeat or build upon their popularity in 2011. While the Tories are still polling well in the West, their majority government was due in large part to a breakthrough in Ontario. However, Harper benefited from a split in the popular vote between the Liberals and the NDP. It’s unlikely to happen again, so the Conservatives would have to make up ground elsewhere, but they remain unpopular in seat-rich Quebec – a further impediment to another majority government.

The Liberals have a difficult path ahead of them due to starting from a low base and without a strong base of regional support, even with the excitement surrounding Justin Trudeau. Though Trudeau has been ahead in the polls, and doing well in fundraising, the Liberals only have 36 seats  and this is without a solid regional voting bloc. For the Liberals to form any kind of government, they have to do well in the Maritimes, Quebec, and Ontario – a difficult task for Jean Chretien in the ’90s when right-wing parties were fragmented and the NDP was significantly weaker than it is today. Although the momentum appears to be with Trudeau, the Liberals have a great deal of barriers to overcome before they can form government. Though Trudeau has made up ground for fundraising, they have to become dominant in a seat-rich province again such as Ontario or Quebec.

The stars would have to align for the NDP to form government. Their leader, Thomas Mulcair, would have to maintain their seats in Quebec – a difficult task due to the popularity of the Trudeau Liberals and the presence of the Bloc Quebecois. To form government they would have to repeat the performance they had in the 1988 federal election in Saskatchewan and British Columbia or replicate Bob Rae’s outcome at the provincial level in 1990. While “Orange Crush” during the 2011 election in Quebec showed that campaigns can be unpredictable , a great deal would have to fall into place for Mulcair to become prime minister.

So where does this leave us?

Based on the current political situation, the Tories are best positioned to form at least a minority government, even with several scandals dominating the headlines. The Conservatives have raised more money than any other party, they are competitive in every province except Quebec, and they have a regional base of support in Western Canada . The opposition parties will likely be battling over which one will form the official opposition in order to line themselves up for the subsequent election.

However, a great deal could happen that could be a game changer: Stephen Harper, or another national leader, could resign, the economy could go back into recession, or there could be other unforeseen circumstances that alter the political landscape. A week is a long time in politics and a year practically an eternity.