British Columbia’s provincial election turned out to be just as close as pollsters predicted, with the outcome sitting on a knife edge late Saturday night as the final results trickled in.
As of 10:45 p.m., the BC NDP were leading or elected in 46 seats, the BC Conservatives were leading or elected in 45 seats, and the Greens were leading or elected in two seats.
The NDP had 44.55 per cent of the popular vote, compared to 43.53 for the BC Conservatives and 8.28 for the BC Green Party.
That split, if it holds, would make for an NDP minority government. But with a few poll stations still to report, several races had leads of under 500 votes, and two races, Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey Centre, had the NDP leading by under 50 votes.
If the Conservatives can flip those ridings, it would put them at the 47 seats needed to form a majority government.
“We knew that every vote would matter, and that has certainly been the case,” BC NDP Leader David Eby said.
“We don’t know what the final count is going to be in the province, but what we do know is that there was a clear majority for the progressive values and I take a lot of comfort from that.”
Conservative Leader John Rustad told supporters he wasn’t yet conceding.
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“We are so close right now, there is just a couple of seats that are within 20, 30 votes that could very easily flip for us, there are still votes yet to be counted,” he said.
“And I am optimistic that the people in this province are hungry for that change.”
Shortly after midnight, Elections BC said it had completed 99.72 per cent of preliminary results and would keep counting for another hour, but may have to complete counts for some ridings on Sunday morning.
It added that 16 districts were still counting out-of-district ballots, which may take longer to count.
It added that automatic recounts would take place in any riding where the margin between the two top candidates was 100 votes or fewer. Those recounts would take place between Oct. 26 and Oct. 28.
The current state of the race represents a significant rebuke of David Eby’s NDP government by voters.
The Conservatives have unseated three NDP cabinet members: education minister Rachna Singh; water, land and resource stewardship minister Nathan Cullen; and agriculture minister Pam Alexis.
They also appear on track to dominate in the southern and eastern Lower Mainland, including Richmond, Surrey and the Fraser Valley.
“We disagree on many things, John Rustad and I, there is no question, but I will absolutely acknowledge he spoke to the frustrations of a lot of British Columbia, frustrations about the costs of daily life, frustrations about crime and public safety,” Eby said.
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“And we can agree on these things, we need to support people with the costs of daily life, we need to make life more affordable for British Columbians and we need to make communities safe for everybody, and we will do these things.”
A minority outcome would carry echoes of British Columbia’s unprecedented 2017 election that saw the BC Liberals win the most seats but fail to secure a majority. The BC NDP and the BC Greens ultimately signed the Confidence and Supply Agreement that lifted John Horgan’s NDP to power.
That deal could serve as a precedent for the NDP and Greens to cooperate again, particularly given the strong policy differences the Greens have with the Conservatives on climate change, the toxic drug crisis and public health-care.
Those negotiations could also be complicated by questions about the future of party leader Sonia Furstenau, who lost her race in Victoria-Beacon Hill.
“It does appear that the Greens are still going to play a pretty pivotal role in the B.C. legislature,” Furstenau told supporters Saturday night.
“This is a passing of the torch and I am going to be there to mentor and guide and lead in any way I can.”
Eby said he had spoken with Furstenau, adding he was prepared to work with her party should his party’s lead hold.
“There are many values we share in common with the Green Party, and I am committed to working with them on our common and shared values,” he said.
Rustad, for his part, vowed that if the NDP did form a minority government he would work to force an election as soon as possible.
“If we are in that situation, we are going to make it as difficult as possible for this NDP to do any more destruction to this province,” he said.
“We will look at every single opportunity from day one to bring them down from the very first opportunity and get back to the polls.”
Find comprehensive election results here as they come in.
This marks the end of a divisive and unprecedented campaign driven by partisan attacks as much as by policy.
It also appears to be headed for a photo finish. Final polling conducted exclusively for Global News on Friday had the BC NDP ahead of the BC Conservatives by just two per cent.
That marked a dramatic change from just one year ago. In October 2023, the NDP appeared on track to cruise to an easy win, with the Official Opposition BC United and upstart BC Conservatives each polling at about 20 per cent.
But the race was turned on its head in late August when, following a disastrous rebranding from the BC Liberals and months of dismal polling and a wave of defections, BC United Leader Kevin Falcon pulled his party from the race and threw his weight behind the BC Conservatives in a bid to defeat the NDP.
When Falcon quit, there were just 12 BC United MLAs running for re-election, after the party won 28 seats in 2020. The consolidation on the right side of the political spectrum kicked off a two-month sprint with the NDP and Conservatives polling neck and neck.
It also saw the unprecedented entry of 40 independent and unaffiliated candidates into the campaign, many of them BC United incumbent MLAs or candidates who weren’t invited into the Conservative Party. None of those candidates were projected to win their ridings, Saturday night.
The race was unprecedented in several other ways. It’s the BC Conservatives’ first serious shot at power; the party hasn’t formed a government in B.C. since 1928. And while the Conservatives have been polling at or above 40 per cent, it was initially unclear if they would be able to translate that support to votes at the ballot box.
This was also the first election as leader for both Rustad and Eby.
The at-times bitter campaign saw both leaders attempt to paint their opponent as radical and a risk to the province. The NDP focused much of its campaign on controversial comments and conspiracy theories espoused by Conservative candidates and, at times, Rustad himself.
Rustad was forced to explain comments about regretting taking the “so-called” COVID-19 vaccine and an apparent willingness to participate in “Nuremberg 2.0” trials of public health workers.
Candidates also faced heat over a range of other controversial comments, ranging from climate change and chemtrail conspiracy theories to racist comments about Muslims.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, focused on crime and the province’s drug crisis which it portrayed as the direct result of NDP’s “soft on crime” policies.
Along with the negative attacks, the parties offered British Columbians radically different visions for the future of the province.
The NDP offered continuity of its centre-left style of government — with some key changes. The party said it would forge on with housing policies that include an increase in densification and restrictions on short-term rentals, more support for public health-care, education and child care, maintain its public no-fault auto insurance system and expand counselling and education assistants in public schools.
Eby, however, has committed to scrapping the province’s consumer carbon tax if Ottawa removes the requirement and to expanding the use of involuntary care for people with severe brain injuries, mental health and addiction issues.
The BC Conservatives, by contrast, ran on a platform of major change, including scrapping the SOGI-123 anti-bullying school resource, scrapping the carbon tax, ending drug decriminalization and “safe supply,” ending ICBC’s monopoly, opening parts of the health-care system to privatization.
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