BC NDP favoured to win 3rd term but it’s a close race: final B.C. election poll

A final poll ahead of B.C.’s election day finds the BC NDP is favoured to win a third term.

However, it is still a close race.

A new Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC shows the NDP with a very slim two-point advantage over the Conservatives as the 2024 campaign reaches the finish line.

9:33 B.C. election: Panel discusses top issues

The poll finds the NDP leads by 13 points in Metro Vancouver and 17 points among the 55-plus age group.

But an NDP victory is not a certainty, according to Ipsos.

“This election will come down to turnout – who has already voted and who will show up on election day – as well as to some last minute ballot box decisions,” Ipsos researchers state.

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“B.C. has surprised before and the range of outcomes in this election includes an NDP majority, a Conservative majority and the potential for the Greens to hold a balance of power.”

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According to those polled, there are three top issues for voters in this election: the cost of living and inflation, health care and housing affordability and availability.

Secondary issues include jobs and the economy, crime and public safety, taxes and social issues.

“Voter preferences remain within the margin of error,” Ipsos states.

“Currently, 44 per cent of decided voters say they would be most likely to support or lean towards the New Democrats. The Conservatives are next at 42 per cent support, followed by the Greens at 11 per cent. Total ‘other party’ support is 3 per cent.

“These results exclude the 12 per cent of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.”

The poll found that the BC NDP leads by 13 points in Metro Vancouver over the BC Conservatives and by 12 points over the Conservatives on Vancouver Island.

However, the BC Conservatives lead by a substantial 24-point margin in the Southern Interior/North and the BC Green Party does better outside Metro Vancouver.

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These are the findings of an Ipsos survey of 1,330 British Columbians conducted Oct. 16 to 18, 2024. The poll, conducted in partnership with Global BC, was fielded both online via the Ipsos I-Say Panel (n=930) and by phone with live interviewers (n=400) using both cellphones and landlines.

These data were statistically weighted by region, age, gender and education to ensure the sample composition reflects that of the actual B.C. population according to Census data. The precision of Ipsos polls containing online data is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll is accurate to within +/ – 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled.

The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to, coverage error and measurement error.