TORONTO – An attempt to dethrone Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak could backfire, some political observers warn.
Hudak won over 75 per cent support when the party held its last leadership review in 2011. But after a byelection loss in 2012 in Kitchener-Waterloo and four more last week, the rumour mill – and various media reports – have suggested some Tories are looking for a new leader.
Nelson Wiseman, a politics professor at the University of Toronto, said Hudak’s ouster is unlikely. First, Wiseman said, it would require changing the party’s constitution. And it would throw the party into disarray ahead of a possible election just months from now.
“Undoing Hudak, or even trying to undo him, gives the impression that this party is in somewhat of a chaotic state. That doesn’t serve the interests of the party,” Wiseman said in a telephone interview Wednesday. “By taking down your leader, you’re projecting an image that you can’t really run your own affairs because, after all, you’re the one that selected this guy.”
And any leadership campaign, Wiseman said, would take at least 8 months and could interfere with a general election.
A report in the Toronto Star claims 10 Progressive Conservative party members from London submitted a motion to the party asking for a constitutional amendment to allow for a leadership review.
Veteran conservative MPP Frank Klees, who finished second to Hudak in the 2009 leadership race, thinks Hudak should let the leadership vote happen, suggesting it could increase the party’s confidence in their leader.
“For Tim to put that vote out there voluntarily, without being seen to resist that, I think it shows confidence on the part of the leader, and I think that in itself would instill confidence on the part of the members in the leader,” he said. “If you’re afraid of what the members are going to say, what does that say about a general election and the general public?”
The Conservatives lost four out of five byelections last week, including London-West, which the NDP candidate Peggy Sattler took easily with over 40 per cent of the vote.
The Tories also lost byelections in Windsor, Ottawa and Scarborough, picking up a seat in traditionally Liberal Etobicoke-Lakeshore.
Deputy PC Leader Christine Elliot, who ran against Hudak in 2009, supported him Wednesday. She told The Canadian Press Wednesday the party needs to build on the gains made by winning Etobicoke-Lakeshore.
“We have already had a conversation about doing a deep analysis about where things didn’t turn out the way that we had hoped that they would,” she said. “I know that Tim is asking questions, so I think he’s doing exactly the right thing now.”
While many critics are painting last week’s byelection as damaging to Hudak’s leadership, Wiseman says the party’s turnout in the popular vote bodes well for them heading into a general election. The PC party picked up 54,268 votes, over 6000 votes ahead of the Liberals and NDP with 47,213 and 45,941 respectively. A recent poll by Forum Research also found the Tories led the governing Liberals by five points across the province.
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