Just one mistake could prove fatal to either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton as the two face off in the first of three presidential debates, says one expert.
John Zogby, the founder of the Zogby Poll and one of America’s preeminent pollsters, joined Tom Clark in The West Block this weekend. Zogby said there is an enormous amount riding on the debates as the two presidential candidates sit neck-and-neck in the polls.
“It’s a very close race and you have essentially two candidates where solid majorities of Americans don’t like them or trust them,” he explained.
“Any big mistake by either candidate could actually prove to be fatal. But so can a few little mistakes or even a wrong expression on your face.”
Al Gore fell victim to that last mistake in 2000, Zogby recalled, becoming visibly exasperated with George W. Bush. It came across as arrogant, and Gore ultimately lost.
Reaching the undecided voters will be key for both Trump and Clinton, Zogby noted. For the most part, these are people who are resigned to voting for the lesser of two evils, but haven’t decided who they dislike more.
For Clinton, winning them over will mean casting herself as approachable and unguarded, he said, and for Trump it will mean keeping a tight leash on his tone and his famously inflammatory rhetoric.
“But these are both pretty tall orders to fill,” Zogby said.
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In the end, of course, Americans don’t vote directly for their president. They vote for a representative (or elector) from their state who has already pledged their support to – in this case – either Trump or Clinton.
In most states, if the majority of electors chosen are Democrats, the whole state votes blue. If they are mostly Republicans, it goes red. Winner takes all.
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The race for the White House will therefore come down to the 270 electoral college votes that are needed to win the presidency. So which state will be the one to watch on Nov. 8?
“Pennsylvania,” Zogby said, without hesitation.
“It’s all about Pennsylvania this year. Good chance that Trump wins Ohio and Florida, that beefs up his column, gets him close to the presidency. But if he wins in a state like Pennsylvania, 20 electoral votes, a lot of white working class voters, then good chance that he’s in a good position in places like Michigan as well.”
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