September 27, 2014 9:10 pm
Updated: September 30, 2014 3:43 pm

Poll shows frontrunner Tory leads in Ford Nation territory


WATCH ABOVE: How do the new poll results (Tory 48 per cent, Chow 26, Ford 26) affect the mayoral campaign?

TORONTO – John Tory now leads in every region of the city including Etobicoke – Ford Nation’s home turf – according to a new Ipsos Reid poll done exclusively for Global News.

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Ipsos Reid polled 1,252 Torontonians between September 23 and September 26 and concluded that if the election were held tomorrow, Tory would win 48 per cent of the vote, while Olivia Chow and Doug Ford would split the remaining votes with 26 per cent each.

“The truth is that John Tory has been able to build a coalition basically everywhere. And more surprising part for me is actually how well he’s doing downtown,” Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, said in an interview Friday.

The divide between old Toronto and its surrounding former municipalities – Etobicoke, North York and Scarborough – and the city centre was fully exposed during the 2010 election, when Rob Ford swept the inner suburbs and George Smitherman clinched the downtown.

Bricker says Tory has been able to bridge that divide.

“John Tory is really coming across here as a compromise candidate,” Bricker said.  “When you take a look at the old city of Toronto, where he’s beating Olivia Chow, it really shows you what the dynamic of the campaign is, which is: If you want Rob Ford out, you’re voting for John Tory now.”

WATCH: The Global News panel breaks down the latest developments on the campaign trail. 

The poll is the second released by Ipsos Reid since Doug Ford entered the race three weeks ago. It indicates Mayor Rob Ford’s brother is losing support among Torontonians.

In the first poll, released September 16, Doug Ford was well behind Tory but held  40 per cent support in Etobicoke. Now, Tory is 20 percentage points ahead of Ford in Etobicoke with 51 per cent support.

The new poll is also the first conducted since Ford’s debating debut on Tuesday during which he attempted to paint Tory as an inexperienced elitist, but where the most memorable moments came from rowdy Ford supporters, one of whom had to be escorted out by police.

“If [Ford] is successful in bringing up these kind of things, there’s a coalition for those kinds of arguments,” Bricker said. “The question is whether or not John Tory is going to engage in it. And trying to win an argument over who is most elite is probably not a place where John Tory wants to go.”

It isn’t clear how much time they’ll spend debating in person over the next four weeks: Ford withdrew at the last minute from a Friday debate at the Empire Club of Canada, citing the $80-a-person tickets he said in a written statement was out of reach for “real Torontonians.” Global News has learned he’s scheduled a $750-a-plate fundraiser the upcoming Monday.

The Ipsos poll, which is considered accurate within +/- 3.2 percentage points 19 times out of 20, has Tory leading in nearly every demographic.

The one exception is in young voters: Chow is one percentage point ahead among voters aged 18 to 34.

But Tory leads among both male and female voters and across all income groups.

The Ipsos Reid poll was conducted between September 23 and September 26 and surveyed 1,252 Torontonians from Ipsos’ Canadian online panel. The poll is considered accurate within +/- 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data, summaries and commentary in exclusive Global News / Ipsos Reid polling are subject to copyright. The data, summaries and commentary may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper attribution to both Global News and Ipsos Reid in all web articles, on social media, in radio broadcasts and with an on-screen credit for television.

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