TORONTO – Doug Ford’s entrance into the mayoral race seems to have had little effect on the other candidates as John Tory has a significant lead over both Olivia Chow and Ford, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll done exclusively for Global News.
Tory has a 14-percentage-point lead, with 43 per cent support among those surveyed; Chow and Ford are statistically tied at 29 per cent support for Chow and 28 per cent for Ford, who entered the race Friday.
Mayor Rob Ford, in hospital awaiting biopsy results on tumours found in his abdomen and –according to an interview with Joe Warmington – lung, withdrew from the mayoral race on Friday to run in his old Ward 2 in Etobicoke.
While some councillors and commentators have characterized Doug’s filling in for his younger brother as anti-democratic, dynastic or simply an example of hubris, 53 per cent of the 596 Torontonians polled think the move was appropriate.
But Ford’s entrance into the race doesn’t seem to have hurt Tory, according to Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker.
“Doug and Rob Ford are a distinction without a difference,” he said.
“Half of the public that would be offended by [Doug entering the race] weren’t voting for them anyway and the other folks that were voting for them are fine with Doug carrying on with Rob’s legacy.”
And Rob Ford’s base in Etobicoke seems to be shifting their support to Doug Ford who enjoys 40 per cent support of Etobicoke residents surveyed in the Ipsos Reid poll. That being said, his support in Etobicoke is disproportionately higher than any other area of the city (30 per cent in Scarborough, 28 per cent in North York, 26 per cent in East York and 20 per cent in downtown Toronto)where he lags behind the other candidates.
While the race looks like it’s becoming a battle for second place, the six weeks remaining before Toronto’s Oct. 27 election leave plenty of time for Tory to stumble.
“There’s a lot of water to still go under this bridge and the thing we know about the Toronto political situation is that it’s a surprise a day,” Bricker said. “There’s still a lot more campaign to come.”
Neither Tory or Chow are – at least publically – letting the poll results change how they view the campaign.
Tory, the outright leader, says he is still campaigning “as if I’m five points behind.”
And Chow refused to comment on the poll specifically but said she feels “the momentum on the street.”
Ipsos Reid conducted the poll between September 12 and September 16 on behalf of Global News. The survey polled 586 Torontonians online and is considered accurate within 4.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data, summaries and commentary in exclusive Global News / Ipsos Reid polling are subject to copyright. The data, summaries and commentary may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper attribution to both Global News and Ipsos Reid in all web articles, on social media, in radio broadcasts and with an on-screen credit for television.