The first look at what the flooding situation in the province could look like in the spring of 2023 has been released, Transportation and Infrastructure Minister Doyle Piwniuk announced on Monday.
The report known as the “2022 Manitoba Basins Fall Conditions Report,” indicates soil moisture levels at the time of freeze-up are near normal or below normal in most of the province’s basins.
Additonally, Environment and Climate Change Canada’s long-term precipitation forecast for this winter and spring has predicted above-normal precipitation for northern Manitoba and near-normal precipitation for southern Manitoba.
“Hydrologic conditions at the time of freeze-up combined with weather this winter and upcoming spring will be the main factors that affect the extent of low- or high-water events,” Piwniuk said.
The report points to a lack of rain over the summer and fall as a helpful factor in drying out the province.
In spring 2022 Manitoba saw devastating flooding in many areas across the province. While the report currently indicates a low threat, there are still many months to go before next spring hits.
“At this time, conditions in most areas appear somewhat favourable. The long-term spring flood risk will be dependent on future weather conditions including the amount of precipitation received over winter and into spring, as well as the rate of snowmelt,” Piwniuk said.
Other factors of potential flooding are the water levels on rivers and lakes prior to freeze-up.
Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg are within operating ranges; Lake Winnipegosis, Lake St. Martin are near normal to slightly above normal, and Dauphin Lake is well above normal, according to the report.
Additionally, inflow into Lake of the Prairies is tracking near-normal conditions.
However, the report does indicate some areas in central Manitoba and the interlake region do have above-normal soil moisture.