Hamilton’s hospital admissions tied to COVID-19 infections continued to rise on Thursday, with another eight people reported to have checked one of the city’s hospitals in the last few days — two of whom required treatment in an intensive care unit (ICU).
As of Aug. 19, both of Hamilton’s hospital agencies are reporting a combined 44 COVID patients with 14 in ICUs.
The current level of the city’s admissions is comparable to those having to seek acute care last December during the third wave of the pandemic, according to data from both Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS) and St. Joe’s.
Dr. Dominik Mertz, director of infection prevention and control at HHS, says the city’s daily COVID-19 numbers are already outpacing the worst-case scenario from modelling released last week by public health.
Forecasts for the fourth wave showed four different scenarios, with the worst-case scenario happening if vaccination rates don’t increase and public health measures being lifted.
In the worst-case scenario, a sagging vaccination campaign coupled with the relieving of public measures in the fall could produce close to another 20,000 cases, 700 hospitalizations and potentially 70 new deaths by the end of the year.
Mertz says he expects the proportion of ICU cases in the fourth wave of the pandemic to be much higher than seen in the previous three waves, even if the total number of hospitalizations remain low.
“Roughly 50 per cent or even more than 50 per cent of those hospital admissions will be in the ICU, and that’s pretty much what we expect to see in the fourth wave,” Mertz told colleagues during an HHS town hall on Thursday.
He went on to say that he expects the hospitalizations to predominantly involve those aged between 20 and 60 years of age, with about 10 per cent tied to those 80-plus.
“Those that are doing well can stay at home, but if they need hospital admission unfortunately it’s often that they require ICU level of care,” said Mertz.
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Public health reported another 50 COVID-19 cases on Thursday, with active cases more than doubling over the last two weeks to 362.
Of those active cases, more than 80 per cent are people under 50 and just under 48 per cent are in people under 30.
There are now 10 outbreaks tied to 33 cases in Hamilton with another workplace, ArcelorMittal Dofasco – Hot Mill Maintenance, revealing a pair of cases among staffers on Wednesday.
Four shelters and four workplaces now make up the bulk of the surges with 28 of the outbreak cases.
Over 78 per cent of Hamiltonians over 12 have had at least one shot of a COVID-19 vaccine, while just over 70 per cent are now fully vaccinated.
The numbers still lag in comparison with the provincial average, which sits at 81.8 per cent of the population 12-plus with at least one dose as of Aug. 19, and 74.2 fully vaccinated.
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