With the Ontario government set to unveil a gradual COVID-19 reopening plan after a weeks-long stay-at-home order, a Toronto epidemiologist is suggesting that the province needs to be careful to not trade a great summer for a bad fall.
Dr. Colin Furness, epidemiologist and assistant professor with the University of Toronto says he expects several million people in Ontario will not be vaccinated by the end of the summer based on the speed of the current programs which will leave many susceptible to aggressive variants.
“So in September, we’re going to have four or five million susceptible people and a very aggressive variant that could produce a very ugly wave if we let it,” Furness told Global News.
Furness says it’s not “inevitable” that such a “mess” could occur but suggests the government will need to keep some safety measures in place considering those who have not yet received a vaccine dose, such as youth under 18.
“We’re going to have to plan smart and that includes, in my estimation, vaccine passports to do things like participating in school and in-person work,” said Furness.
The doctor suggests that monitoring Quebec and regions of the United States that have announced recent reopenings amid high vaccination rates could help construct a potential blueprint for Ontario’s opening with certain ground rules.
This week, premier François Legault announced that Quebec’s overnight curfew will end on May 28 and unveiled a cautionary plan to reopen stadiums and other entertainment venues with conditions.
“I don’t have the sense they’re rushing it too much. Of course, we’re only going to know after the fact” Furness said.
Opening the U.S. border in June also something Furness says may be a bit too soon since that’s how variants arrive in Canada, potentially causing issues “down the road.”
“So the wave we’re in right now, that was caused by travel in November and December, no question,” Furness said. “That’s when the U.K. variant came here.”
Hamilton’s emergency operations director Paul Johnson says the city’s case numbers have been “good news” over the past two weeks trending down to about 120 per day compared to the 150 to 200 recorded daily in mid-April.
However, he says those numbers are still high, recounting how public health “panicked’ at seeing daily numbers at that volume last year.
“Those are pretty high,” Johnson told Global News.
“There’s still a large number of people who are hospitalized, including those in intensive care across the province, so that number needs to come down a lot lower.”
Johnson says he isn’t sure whether the province will allow the reopening of some outdoor amenities before the end of the stay-at home-order in June.
However, he says the city is generally ready for a quick reopening of tennis courts, sports fields and the escarpment stairs, but not pools and splash pads.
“If something happens this week, I’m not sure the spray pads would be open this weekend,” Johnson said.
Hamilton reports 141 new COVID-19 cases, 6 new outbreaks
Hamilton reported 141 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday and six new virus-related outbreaks across the city.
Public health says an outbreak at Conway Opportunity Homes in Central Hamilton is the largest of the new surges with four residents and a pair of staffers affected.
The UPS outlet on Grays Road in east Hamilton has four infections among workers, while Latitude Air Ambulance near the airport and Outdoor Lifestyles Landscaping in Waterdown have three cases each among staff members.
Two outbreaks in Dundas include St. Joseph’s Villa retirement home with a pair of staff cases while the outbreak at the Hatts Off supportive housing facility has just a single case involving a resident.
Four outbreaks were ended on Wednesday at the Good Shepard Women’s facility on the west side, the Fortino’s on Upper Centennial Parkway, Freshfit Athletic and the Evergreen Manor seniors facility.
Evergreen Manor was the largest of the outbreaks accounting for 20 cases among residents and four workers.
Hamilton has 39 outbreaks involving more than 470 cases. The largest segment of surges are in workplaces which account for 100 cases at 14 locations.
The city’s active cases are still under 1,000 as of Thursday, up by 40 cases to 970 day over day.
There are 102 patients with COVID-19 in Hamilton hospitals as of May 20. Hamilton Health Sciences says they have 65 patients, with 26 in intensive care units (ICU) and St. Joe’s 37 patients, with 26 of those in an ICU.
St. Joe’s says its ICU occupancy rate is now at 148 per cent as of Thursday, while HHS facilities are at 117 per cent.
The city’s reproductive number is below 1.0 as of Thursday at 0.82, which suggests the spread of the virus within the community has been contained.
The seven-day moving average of cases was at 119, last reported on May 18.
The percentage of Hamilton tests returning from Ontario labs as positive for COVID-19 is 8.4 per cent, above the province’s last reported daily number, 5.2 per cent as of May 20.
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