Looking ahead to the May long weekend weather forecast in Calgary

Campsite in an Alberta Provincial Park. Bruce Aalhus / Global News

Gardening! Camping! Fishing! Hiking!

May long weekend is fast approaching and everyone likes to make a jab or two about the terrible weather that “always” accompanies those late May days here in Alberta. But the weather isn’t always terrible, at least not statistically in Calgary.

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At best, we can say it is a mixed bag most years. A deep dive into climate data for the Calgary area from the last 30 years suggests that we only get snow at some point over the three-day period of May long about 20 per cent of the time.

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As far as a completely dry long weekend? Well, that has happened about 30 per cent of the time in that same period of climate data. Most often, about 50 per cent of the time, we see rain for at least one of the three days that make up the May long weekend. So what’s it going to be this year?

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Let’s start with this weekend: May 15-16. It looks amazing! While some rain is expected Thursday, we can count on sunny and warm conditions taking over on Friday and persisting through the weekend.

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Now let’s get to the following weekend: May long.

Most weather models agree that rain (and possibly snow flurries) will occur before the long weekend, likely on Thursday, May 20 and Friday, May 21. That means we’ll get the ugly stuff out of the way in the Calgary region before the long weekend officially begins.

Image courtesy SpotWx showing graphical representation of GFS weather model for the next 10 days.

Following the rain and snow flurries of Thursday and Friday, it is very likely to dry out and warm up for May long weekend. Plan accordingly and enjoy.

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