Communication, not fines key to 2nd wave coronavirus measure compliance: experts

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Coronavirus: Ford ‘deeply concerned’ by latest COVID-19 modelling projections
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he was "deeply concerned" by COVID-19 modelling projections released Wednesday that show new cases in the province doubling every 10-12 days, with 1,000 new cases per day projected by mid-October – Sep 30, 2020

As health officials work to stave off a second wave of the novel coronavirus pandemic, experts say clear communication — not fines — are key to making sure Canadians comply with measures to mitigate the virus’ spread.

Speaking in a rare evening address last week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the country’s four largest provinces are already experiencing the second wave.

Read more: Canada signs deal to buy 7.9M rapid coronavirus tests, pending approval

At a press conference on Tuesday, Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said the total number of daily cases is now at the same level as was reported during the first peak of the virus in April.

On Tuesday, 1,657 new infections were reported across the country.

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Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto, said this time around Canada has more knowledge about the virus, and can be “smarter and far more targeted” in its approach.

There are very specific things we need to do, like closing bars and closing restaurants, that’s enforceable,” he said.

“And if we do these things with alacrity, we may not need to impose on individual liberties more than we have.”

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How are people getting COVID-19 in the second wave? One doctor weighs in

However, Furness said what we’re seeing now could just be the “last chapter of the first wave,” with the real second wave bringing many more cases and fatalities.

“I’m expecting it to potentially get very horrible at the end of October,” he said.

“That’s really when flu season starts and it’ll be two weeks after Thanksgiving, and the cold weather’s in,” he said.

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Dr. Timothy Sly, an epidemiologist and professor emeritus at Ryerson University’s School of Public Health, said another full lockdown will probably be a “last resort” for Canada.

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He said if Canada were to fully lock back down — including shuttering businesses and closing schools — it would need to be for at least two incubation periods or four weeks.

“But whether the society is ready for that, I don’t know,” he said.

Enforcing COVID-19 rules

On Saturday, police officers had to close the town of Wasaga Beach to non-residents after hundreds of car enthusiasts gathered over the weekend.

Click to play video: 'OPP issues tickets at Wasaga Beach car rally'
OPP issues tickets at Wasaga Beach car rally

By Monday, officers said more than 200 tickets had been issued in relation to the event.

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Furness said “generally,” you don’t want to have enforcement when it comes to public health “because it backfires.”

Read more: Huge crowds show up in Wasaga Beach, Ont. for car rally despite coronavirus restrictions

However, he said there are some exceptions.

“When you get really, really outrageous behavior where someone is hosting a party, I would actually fine the host,” he said. “And I think that has been happening a bit.”

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Coronavirus: Ford reacts to ‘reckless’ crowds at Wasaga Beach car rally

What works better, Furness explained, is establishing social norms that people feel shame when they fail to follow.

“You really want lots of people talking about what a destructive behavior this is, it would be great for people to consider who they’re infecting,” he said.

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Read more: Canada reports 1,739 new coronavirus cases as global deaths top 1 million

Craig Janes, director of the School of Public Health and Health Systems at the University of Waterloo, echoed Furness’ comments, saying coercive measures are important, but that Canada should probably “avoid punishing people” for skirting COVID-19-related rules.

Read more: Canada’s deficit to hit $330B as coronavirus lands ‘permanent’ economic impact

“I’m not sure that being super strict and fining people or imprisoning them or charging them with violations is all that effective,” he said.

He said clear, direct and honest communication about the risks associated with the virus is a more useful approach.

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Furness also said he would like to see more social messaging, saying there should be billboards and advertisements on TV and online about the virus.

“We could really be spending money on establishing what is safe and what is not safe and thinking about the consequences,” he said.

Majority of people compliant

A poll conducted by Ipsos for Global News in early July found 77 per cent of Canadians anticipated there would be a second wave of the novel coronavirus, despite efforts to stem its spread.

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What’s more, 83 per cent of the respondents said they would support shuttering most non-essential businesses if the country did experience a second wave.

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The state of seniors’ homes at the start of the second wave

Ultimately, Sly said the majority of Canadians seem to be following the COVID-19-related measures.

“I think it’s become sort of a new normal,” he said, noting high compliance with masks and maintaining a safe distance from each other in public places such as grocery stores.

Furness said it should be a “fairly small job” to “exert influence on those who aren’t.”

— With a file from The Canadian Press

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