Quebec’s public health institute says deaths could spike in the greater Montreal area if physical distancing measures designed to limit the spread of COVID-19 are lifted.
New projections posted to the institute’s website show deaths could rise to 150 a day by July in the city and its surrounding regions, now the epicentre of the virus in Canada.
The institute, which worked with experts from Université Laval, says new cases could soar to 10,000 a day by June amid a potential “rapid increase” in hospitalizations.
READ MORE: Quebec ramps up screening strategy as coronavirus bears down on Greater Montreal
As of Saturday, Quebec counted 61 new deaths, bringing the COVID-19 death toll to 2,786.
There are currently 36,986 confirmed cases in the province. 1,835 people are hospitalized with the virus, including 205 in intensive care. 1,711 people are currently under investigation.
Montreal has recorded over 18,850 cases of COVID-19 and more than 1,700 deaths, making it by far the hardest-hit part of the country. On top of viral outbreaks in long-term care homes, several other parts of the greater Montreal area are witnessing sustained community transmission.
Premier François Legault has announced that retail stores in the greater Montreal region can reopen May 25, and says he will keep close tabs on the situation there before deciding whether daycares and elementary schools can unlock their doors later this month.
The institute’s model, which incorporates a breadth of projections that are “tough to determine,” says lifting lockdown measures in the rest of Quebec would likely result in a slight increase in cases outside of Montreal.
So far, 9,268 people in Quebec have recovered from COVID-19 and 244,384 tests have come back negative.
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–With files from The Canadian Press
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