Coronavirus curve beginning to flatten in Durham: Lakeridge Health

Durham’s hospital network is sharing some positive news regarding the coronavirus pandemic.

Based on the latest data, it appears as though the number of new cases reported daily in the region is steadily decreasing.

“Broadly speaking, the community spread appears to be going down so the curve is flattening in that sense,” said Dr. Tony Stone, chief of staff for Lakeridge Health.

“That’s great news.”

According to data from the region, it’s apparent the daily number of new cases is dropping. At what appears to be the peak, Durham says its largest single-day spike of 54 cases came on April 17.

In the past week, there have been as many as 30 new cases in a day (May 1) and as few as 10 (May 4).

As of Thursday, more than 1,100 residents have tested positive for the virus.

Lakeridge says over the last two weeks, while community spread has been decreasing, there’s been a surge in vulnerable people being admitted to hospital.

“The biggest contributor in the last couple of weeks has been admissions from nursing homes in Durham,” Stone said.

At Orchard Villa, a retirement and long-term care home in Pickering, the death toll has climbed to 65.

There have been more than 130 deaths related to COVID-19 in the region. More than 85 per cent of overall deaths have been linked to long-term care homes.

Stone says it won’t be possible to see a dramatic decrease in cases until the population reaches what’s called herd immunity.

“Herd immunity is typically reached with 70 to 80 per cent of the population (immune),” Stone said. “When we reach that level, we often get to a point where you can still get flare-ups or outbreaks or clusters, but you wouldn’t see a progression like we’ve seen in the pandemic.”

Stone says herd immunity will be apparent when mass vaccination with a reliable vaccine becomes possible.

Numerous companies around the world are actively working to develop a vaccine against the coronavirus.