The most startling result from the Probe Research poll published this week was the clear and unequivocal choice of most Manitobans that health care was the number one issue in this campaign.
And it wasn’t even close.
Health care was identified as the top issue among 44 per cent of the 1,200 Manitobans Probe surveyed from Aug. 13-24. Jobs and the economy were second at 15 per cent.
Watching this campaign, we’ve seen Wab Kinew and the NDP talk about health care as much as they could. When Kinew got questions in the debate about other topics, he pivoted to health care. This week, he promised to hire more nurses and end mandatory overtime. He’d re-open emergency rooms.
But for those Manitobans who are thinking about the quality of health care in the province as they prepare to cast their ballot Tuesday, is Kinew’s plan the right one or is Pallister’s the one to stick with?
Pallister and the PCs point to a couple of things in defence of some of the controversial health care reforms they’ve brought in. First, there’s some data to support the claim that there’s been some modest improvement in some metrics, such as wait times for MRIs, since Pallister became premier. Second, the PCs want Kinew to defend Greg Selinger’s record on health care.
WATCH: Manitoba NDP leader Wab Kinew urges Pallister to freeze Seven Oaks ER closure until after election
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The PCs point to data points under the previous NDP government when other health care metrics, such as wait times for hip surgeries, rapidly worsened.
The clear message from the PCs: Voting for the NDP is going backwards when it comes to much-needed health care reform.
In the meantime, Pallister is betting that Manitobans care more about eliminating the deficit. Indeed, Pallister wants to bring any conversation back to that issue just as Kinew wants to bring every conversation back to health care.
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Deficit reduction is important for PC plans to bring in some tax relief, although it must be said — the tax relief, too, is modest and may not be a reality for years to come.
So far, Pallister’s pitch appears to be the favoured one. The same Winnipeg Free Press/CTV Winnipeg/Probe poll that found Manitobans ranking healthcare as their top issue also found the PCs with an 11-point lead over the NDP: 40 per cent to 29 per cent among decided and leaning voters.
But let’s not forget the lesson of the 2015 federal election when many voters in Manitoba and around the country chose the only party — Justin Trudeau’s Liberals — that was prepared to run deficits in order to boost government services.
David Akin is the chief political correspondent for Global News
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