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Desire for change could lead to minority CAQ government: Ipsos poll

Click to play video: 'CAQ pulling ahead at the end of Quebec campaign trail: poll' CAQ pulling ahead at the end of Quebec campaign trail: poll
WATCH: A new poll shows it's a close race before voters head to the polls on Monday – but the CAQ seems to be pulling ahead. Global's Elysia Bryan-Baynes speaks to IPSOS Quebec senior vice-president and general manager Sebastien Dallaire about the findings – Sep 28, 2018

It seems Quebecers want change. According to a new Ipsos poll commissioned for Global News and La Presse, 61 per cent of people think the province is in need of a new government.

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Heading into the final stretch of the Quebec election campaign, only 24 per cent said they would be happy to keep the same government, with 16 per cent of people admitting they didn’t know.

That means the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) could form a minority government, with 32 per cent of people saying they would support François Legault‘s party.

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The Quebec Liberal Party is just behind the CAQ in voter intention, with 31 per cent support among those surveyed.

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“What we’re seeing is the CAQ in a position where they are more likely to win than the Liberals so it looks good for the CAQ,” said Ipsos Quebec general manager Sébastien Dallaire.

“If the numbers were like this, it would be a clear minority government — maybe not a majority territory yet, but it would most likely be a CAQ win.”

The Parti Québécois (PQ) is at 18 per cent and Québec Solidaire is at 16 per cent.

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It also seems that voter intentions are becoming clearer.

Of the people surveyed, 58 per cent said they are absolutely sure about who they will vote for — up six per cent since Tuesday.

WATCH: Voters leaning CAQ with slight lead over Liberals in latest Ipsos poll

Click to play video: 'Voters leaning CAQ with slight lead over Liberals in latest Ipsos poll' Voters leaning CAQ with slight lead over Liberals in latest Ipsos poll
Voters leaning CAQ with slight lead over Liberals in latest Ipsos poll – Sep 28, 2018

With only a few days left before the election, 87 per cent of people said they are absolutely or fairly certain of their choice, with only 12 per cent saying they still aren’t sure of how they will vote.

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CAQ Leader François Legault is still considered the one who would make the best premier, with 24 per cent.

Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard came in second, with 21 per cent.

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PQ Leader Jean-François Lisée had 10 per cent of people saying he would make the best premier.

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Ten per cent of people also named Quebec Solidaire Spokesperson Manon Massé.

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Sixteen per cent said they didn’t know and 19 per cent said none of the party leaders would make a good premier.

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Likewise, though 20 per cent of people could not say who they thought has had the best electoral campaign so far, Legault came in first among those surveyed, with 18 per cent.

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Couillard had 15 per cent, Massé had 17 per cent and Lisée had nine per cent.

Eighteen per cent said none of the leaders had the best campaign and two per cent named leaders from other parties.

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Thirty-eight per cent of people believe the CAQ will win the provincial election — up from 36 per cent on Sept. 25.

Twenty-six per cent of people said the Liberals will be reelected, down two per cent from 28 per cent.

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Both the PQ and Québec Solidaire had less than 10 per cent of people saying they will form a government — at five per cent and four per cent, respectively.

About a quarter of people said they did not know who would win on Oct. 1.

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This Ipsos poll on behalf of Global News and La Presse was conducted from Sept. 26 to 28, 2018. A total sample of 1,250 respondents from across Quebec participated either via internet panel or by telephone. The results were weighted to better reflect the composition of the adult Quebec population, according to census data. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. 

rachel.lau@globalnews.ca

with files from Global’s Kalina Laframboise

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