Saskatchewan NDP needs to win urban races according to expert

SASKATOON – The Saskatchewan New Democratic Party (NDP) must breakthrough in the provinces urban centres on election Monday, if they want to have any chance of forming government or gaining seats in the legislature, according to a political studies professor.

“I think that’s an uphill battle for them because Saskatoon has changed quite a bit,” said Charles Smith, a University of Saskatchewan political studies professor.

However, there are a few opportunities in the city where Smith believes the party could be a strong contender. The western riding of Saskatoon Fairview is one example, according to Smith. The NDP held the seat from 1986 to 2011, when Sask Party incumbent Jennifer Campeau was victorious by less than 300 votes.

FULL COVERAGE: Decision Saskatchewan 2016

“If the NDP has any momentum on election night you’ve got to look to that riding to possibly go the NDP’s way,” said Smith.

“If there’s no momentum then you’d expect Jennifer Campeau to hold.”

The NDP also has opportunities to pick up seats in new ridings, that are without an incumbent MLA running, according to Smith.

“It’s easier to win I think when there’s no incumbent versus if you’re taking on a long time incumbent,” he said.

Smith pointed to the ridings of Saskatoon Churchill-Wildood and Saskatoon University as two races that fall into that category. The latter, he said, could result in a vote splitting scenario due to the strength of the candidates. The Liberals are running Ezez Jaseem, the NDP candidate is Jennifer Bowes and the Sask Party is contending with Eric Olauson.

“The Liberals have a fairly high-profile candidate, the NDP has a relatively newer candidate and the Sask Party has, you know, a sitting city councillor,” said Smith in reference to candidates.

“University’s kind of a diverse riding, you’ve got sort of a student population in the university sector … versus sort of a more moderate, middle class in and around the university and then you’ve got some really wealthy areas up into the suburbs.”

However, one riding Smith does not think will be that competitive is Saskatoon Meewasin. The NDP held the seat since the early 90’s, before the Sask Party’s Roger Parent was elected in 2011, but Smith said he doesn’t like the chances of it turning orange this year due to the strong incumbent.

NDP candidate Nicole White is “a really diverse candidate, really excellent candidate,” according to Smith, however “it’s going to be a really uphill battle for her to take down Roger Parent.”