In Toronto, election results show sharp neighbourhood differences

The top Conservative polls in the 416 included some around Bathurst and Lawrence (a block of three polls just south of the intersection were on the top 15 list for the whole city) and two side-by side polls in the wealthy Bridle Path neighbourhood.

The Bain co-op housing complex in Riverdale was the top NDP poll, with over 82% of residents backing the party. The NDP’s strongest polls in the city included several in Riverdale, including two surrounding Greenwood Park, two in Parkdale, and a residential area near College and Lansdowne next to the tracks slated for the controversial Union-to-Pearson rail connection. The Toronto Islands took the #3 slot.

The information comes from enormously detailed data about the October provincial election, breaking down the province to the level of individual polls, released just before Christmas. We crunched the numbers (which arrived in 107 spreadsheets), joined them with a geography file in Google Fusion Tables to create six maps: plurality winner by poll, voter turnout and four parties looked at in isolation. The result is a far more locally precise look at the election than is possible just looking at ridings.

For the Liberals, four side-by-side polls in Flemingdon Park made a top 15 list, with another in nearby Thorncliffe Park. The Ahmadiyya Abode of Peace, an apartment building near Finch and Islington run by the Ahmadiyya Muslim community, was the Liberals’ top poll in the 416, with the support of over 92% of residents.

Green voters clustered north of College and Spadina.

In Toronto, the NDP has strengths in the old city’s east end, a strip of the west end extending northeast to the 401, a strong pocket in Malvern, and (in Peel) Malton. The Conservatives dominate a large wedge roughly centred on Yonge St., and a pocket of central Etobicoke along Islington south of Eglinton.
Elsewhere in the province, strong patterns emerge, much more nuanced than riding-by-riding results.

From Lake Nipissing south, the NDP has pockets of strength in traditional industrial cities – Oshawa, Toronto, Hamilton, Welland, London, Windsor – as well as aboriginal communities. The Conservatives have strikingly consistent support in rural areas, while the Liberals prosper in suburbs and towns – often very small towns, like Leamington, Ayr and Baden, pop out as red patches in a sea of blue.

Hamilton shows the pattern clearly – the central city’s polls are nearly all NDP, Dundas and Ancaster are largely Liberal, and the surrounding countryside is uniformly Conservative.

Dufferin County, where the planned Melancthon Quarry project has attracted intense opposition, is as close as the Greens come to a stronghold in Ontario.

View our poll-by-poll election maps.

Tune into Global Toronto at 5:30 ET for more analysis.

Flemingdon Park is home to a block of four polls on the Liberals’ Toronto top-15 list.

The Tories’ top-15 list includes two side-by-side polls in the Bridle Path:

While the Bain co-operative in Riverdale voted overwhelmingly for the NDP:

As did the Island: