Support for Alberta separatism has declined since the beginning of 2026, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News.
The survey conducted between May 28 to June 1 found 19 per cent of Albertans said they would vote this fall to hold a separate binding separation referendum, while 72 per cent would check off the box to remain in Canada, and the remainder are undecided, would not vote or did not answer.
While the new polling data suggests the separatist momentum isn’t powerful enough to move past the initial referendum in October, Ipsos asked Albertans what their intentions would be if that binding referendum were to somehow still happen.
If a binding referendum is held, the Ipsos poll suggests 18 per cent of Albertans would vote to leave Canada, compared with 72 per cent who would vote to stay. Nine per cent were undecided or did not respond.
That 18 per cent support marks a 10-point drop from January, when 28 per cent of Albertans said they backed separation.
At that time, the Stay Free Alberta separatist group was still gathering signatures but in the months since then, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has opted to add a question about separatism to the referendum she announced in February, with the questions at the time focusing on immigration and the Constitution.
The additional question will be: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada — or — should the government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
Darrell Bricker, chairman of Ipsos Canada and global CEO for Ipsos Public Affairs, said the new data from the past week suggests support for Alberta separation is weakening as the idea becomes more tangible.
“It seems like the more that people contemplate this being real — the act of voting — we see the support for separatism softening,” he said in an interview with Global News about the findings.
Stay voters more firmly committed than those favouring separation
The data also suggests those opposed to separation are more firmly committed to their position.
Among respondents who would vote to stay in Canada, 90 per cent described their choice as “definite” compared with 70 per cent of those who would vote to separate.
“What it shows is that people who really want Alberta to stay in Canada are really strongly motivated to vote for that,” Bricker said.
“There’s a certain level of strength we see for the separatist vote but it’s so much smaller that they’re going to have to turn out every one of the people who say they’re certain to vote — and probably times three more — in order to actually be competitive in this race.”
Stay Free Alberta, the separatist group driving the push to leave Canada, says it gathered just over 300,000 signatures on its petition calling for an independence referendum, which if verified represents around six per cent of Alberta’s population of five million people.
The process to verify the signatures is currently on hold due to the petition being quashed by a judge last month — something the Alberta government says it intends to appeal but also, the catalyst for Smith adding the 10th question.
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Support for both holding a referendum and for separation itself is lowest in Calgary, where 14 per cent of respondents support moving ahead with a referendum — compared with 18 per cent in Edmonton and 27 per cent in the rest of Alberta.
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Similarly, 12 per cent of Calgary respondents say they would vote to separate, compared with 16 per cent in Edmonton and 27 per cent in the rest of the province.
Support varies by political affiliation.
Among right-leaning United Conservative Party supporters, 50 per cent favour remaining in Canada compared with 40 per cent who support holding a referendum and 41 per cent who would vote to separate.
Bricker said that split is also reflected in Danielle Smith’s own political circle.
“While there’s a significant level of support for separatism, there’s also a significant amount of support for staying in Canada.
“So even (in) the UCP caucus, there’s certain amount of division.”
Among NDP supporters, 92 per cent favour staying in Canada compared with five per cent who support holding a referendum, while 93 per cent would vote to stay versus four per cent who would vote to separate.
Voters undecided on which party to support also lean strongly toward remaining in Canada, with 74 per cent supporting the stay option compared with nine per cent backing a referendum, and 76 per cent saying they would vote to stay versus four per cent to separate.
By age, support for holding a referendum is higher among those under 55 years old (22 per cent) compared with 14 per cent among those 55+.
Support for separation itself is highest among those under 35, at 22 per cent, followed by 19 per cent among those aged 35 to 54, and 13 per cent among those 55 and older.
The poll suggests motivations among those supporting separation have shifted: 61 per cent say their position is driven mainly by a belief Alberta’s future would be better outside Canada, while 39 per cent cite historical mistreatment within Canada.
This marks a reversal from January, when 55 per cent pointed to historical grievances and 39 per cent to future prospects.
Ipsos said the 10-point drop in support for separation since January may be, at least partly, due to those concerned about historic mistreatment rethinking whether this is adequate cause to separate.
Most Canadians want Alberta to remain, with weaker support in Quebec
Outside Alberta, support for provincial separation remains low overall but varies by region: 11 per cent of Canadians outside Alberta say they would support their own province separating if a referendum were held today, including 30 per cent in Quebec and 11 per cent in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Support is minimal in British Columbia at two per cent, Ontario at three per cent and Atlantic Canada at three per cent.
Most Canadians also want Alberta to remain in the country: 80 per cent say Alberta should stay in Canada, including 63 per cent in Quebec.
“The numbers are pretty consistent — what we saw in the last referendum in 1995 for Quebec staying in Canada,” Bricker said.
“Canadians definitely feel Canada is better with Alberta in.”
Bricker noted support for Alberta remaining in Canada is notably lower in Quebec than the national average, suggesting Quebecers may be viewing developments in Alberta through the lens of their own provincial situation and could be more cautious about actions that might have implications for Quebec, such as federal intervention.
“(Quebecers) don’t want anybody to be doing anything in Alberta that they feel that they will have to deal with in the province of Quebec.”
A majority of Canadians outside Alberta — 58 per cent — believe the entire country should have a say in whether Alberta separates, while 28 per cent say it should be up to Albertans alone.
In Quebec, 51 per cent say the decision should rest with Albertans and 34 per cent support a national say.
“Again, that’s a reflection of what’s going on in the province of Quebec as much as it is a reflection of what is going on in the province of Alberta.”
On the role of the federal government, 53 per cent of Canadians outside Alberta believe Ottawa should play a role in a referendum campaign, compared with 29 per cent who say it should stay out.
“Half of Canadians say that the federal (government) needs to be involved, but where the number really drops off the cliff is in the province of Quebec,” Bricker added.
“They really don’t feel the federal governments should be involved.”
Opinions are split in Alberta, with 45 per cent supporting a federal role and 42 per cent against it.
Most Albertans already have minds made up
Multiple pollsters have asked Albertans and Canadians a range of similar questions to do with separatism and the data shows the needle has not budged much poll to poll, from month to month.
An Angus Reid Institute survey, conducted from May 22–24 after the province announced it was adding the 10th question to the referendum, found 60 per cent of respondents would vote to stay in Confederation, while 35 per cent said they would support beginning the process of separation.
A different poll in February by the Angus Reid Institute also found support for independence amongst the general public was at three in 10.
In January, an Ipsos poll found about three in 10 residents supported independence, but a deeper dive revealed that when faced with the costs and consequences of doing so, only half of those interested in separatism are truly committed to following through.
Albertans will go to the polls to vote in the 10-question referendum on Monday, Oct. 19.
The Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News was done online between May 28 and June 1, 2026, with a sample of 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and older, including 600 Alberta residents and 900 from the rest of Canada. The results have a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, for the full sample.
If Albertans don’t like separation,then THEY can move
Garbage left wing news. People are going to be shocked when Alberta does the right thing and separates from this mess of a country.
What’s the fuss.It’s just the poor people that are for seperation. The ones that are struggling to make ends meet. We the rich people like government workers, politicians, CEOs we don’t want separation. So why is everyone so concerned?.
?
Separation was always B.S. I said when this first started it was all hype to force the government to give Alberta what they want Just like the Canadian French did with their separation talk. I am not Canadian but the game is so obvious.
@ idiot just below: Is this article about Carney?
Phuck off with your b.s.
In addition to being the Chairman of the Board for Brookfield Carney also was head of the Bank of England during the Brexit fiasco and Head of the Bank of Canada during the 2007 financial crisis and subsequent recession.
He seems like the most experienced person available to the take on the current global uncertainty. Good thing that we have him.
I’m sure it’s great fun to imagine Carney is some Dr Evil – the NPost is all over that fantasy. Like Quebec discovered, the devil is in the details for actual separation – no passport, no flow of federal money, no right to unilaterally separate, still on the hook for your share of the national debt etc. And the indigenous population gets a say which will be ‘no thanks’. Not a cake and eat it too situation. And threatening to separate has given Quebec way more leverage to get more than its share from the federal pot – actual separation would be a financial disaster.
Alberta Can NOT separate .Carney has to much investment in Brookfield Asset Management, a trillion-dollar global investment firm where he previously served as board chair before entering politics. don’t think about your self . weather you can afford food or not think about Carney!! he’s our prime minister we all voted for!!! he is a VIP
19% support seems high to me.
no.. Bob is NOT your Uncle.! his is a liberal bot
Truth hurts. But keep posting about propaganda and conspiracy theories. It’s amusing to read.
If Alberta had a Liberal government in place the province would be thriving, not crying.
US has the south…Canada gas Alberta.
Where’s DaniQ’s red clown nose?
What a phuckin waste of money that should have gone to firefighters.
Imagine falling for this billion dollar propaganda campaign against Alberta sovereignty 🤣 You really can’t fix stupid.
Its not a popular topic yet every news outlet covers the topic every single day. PROPAGANDA 🤣
..looks like the separatist have called in their paid help on here…fear-mongering, US invasions, childish name calling, deflections all over the place….but no facts!…think critically and for yourselves, don’t let the foreign interests win..
Canada needs to stay together, we need to suck Alberta dry for its natural resources . we need billions of dollars to go to the Ukraine and other countries. some one has to pay for all the education , government grants we give the new Canadians that arrive here from India and other countries because they are more important then you , if Alberta was to separate the liberal government would have no more control . we need communism.. elbows up!!!
How can being independent stop federal pipeline regulations when it still has to go through other provinces? Four borders lacks forethought!
Biased reporting
,
Liberal voters also known as the Elbozos are USEFUL IDIOTS . Mark Carney and friends laugh at you behind closed doors for being the biggest suckers in Canadian history . I’m from Ontario and have no stake in the seperation. But I understand why .
At least until the referendum, avoiding supporting the Alberta economy as best i can. If they don’t want to be in Canada than why should Canadian’s buy their goods and support their economy? There are other provinces to prioritize. No more Alberta Beef or liquor. No more vacations or work trips to Alberta.
I am going to laugh at all the elbows-up liberals when Trump comes and invades. I can not wait to see the self-purge rates climb. None of these elbows-up kids can explain why they are so afraid of democracy and why they oppose a free Alberta. They are simple-minded liberals; they cannot think individually
not a separatist maybe……. but you sure show your elbows up as your pants are down . do you enjoy the feel of the liberal government giving you a honing out ? you must
Dee Ironside
Don’t let the door hit you on the ass on your way out ha ha
To all you goofs telling me to move or what to do.
MAKE ME.
Once again poll question asked in Edmonton or BC.
It’s weird, I haven’t seen any separation coolaid drinkers actively promoting the plan where I live and it’s in the middle of the triangle. I’d love for them to stop by so I can ask them for answers on the 20 questions I have about the consequences and costs involved. We proudly fly a Canadian flag so pretty easy to spot.
These losers are free to move to the States right now if they hate Canada so much.
Only two in 10 Albertans plan to vote on Oct. 19 in favour of holding a future separation vote. Thats 20%. Twenty percent of adults fall below an IQ score of roughly 87. Below 85 (approx. 16% of adults): Defined as borderline to below-average intelligence. There’s your in favour voters. Anonymous included.
liberal government need to blame them selves for destroying Canada ,this is why Albertans want separation,, they want separation from YOU!!!
The problem with most any movement is that, no matter how well-intentioned it may be, people somehow seem to rally behind the biggest moron they can find. This is no different. But I think the only two questions on the ballot should be: 1 should Alberta keep sending transfer payments to the rest of Canada, and 2 should we keep unsustainable mass immigration and tfw programs?
Just astonishing to read all of the ad hominem attacks from the separatist side who – because the polls show that most of Slberta disagrees with them – must make claims WITHOUT EVIDENCE about bribes and corruption, while ignoring the bribes and criminality from the leaders of this nonsense.
No access to Canada’s pipelines.
No access to Canada’s ocean ports.
No RCMP.
No Canadian Forces.
No economy.
Yeah this is called propaganda
According to Goebbels news
Sylvester Michly you must be a elbows up leech sucking boomers . one of then that already destroyed Canada , sitting back sucking the system dry not worried about the next generations because you don’t have to get a job or buy your first home
what ever happed to the real vote numbers when in every town and city across Alberta had a line up around the block to vote for Alberta separation referendum
What will all the Rath lovin redneck cowboy hat wearin yokels do when they lose? lmao
Keep on gripin and complainin and lose their minds when the Liberals win the next election, You gumbies best move to the states now with what brain cells ya got.
fake poles done by liberal supported news lol
first the liberal paid thomas lukaszuk then Naheed Nenshi then the first nation puppets not the fake poles and the army of liberal bots ..ya liberals you should be worried. using our tax money against us might just not be enough
Is that why the Left won’t stop obsessing about the Democratic referendum? Because there is such “low support” for Independence?!? Nothing but lies and propaganda from the terrified Communists.
I was going to make a comment but all I can say after reading all the other comments is man, show some class people. Which ever side you are on, at least make an attempt at civil discourse. Pathetic.
Bunch of whiny little maggots grow up
Crazy White Nationalists want to take the nuclear option, the Alberta government lowered the standard to submit such a petition and these Albert Klan members still had to resort to illegal and improper methods while risking real harm to most of the residents of the province.
THIS WILL NEVER HAPPEN IN OUR LIFE
liberals funded news using power of suggestion , seems to me they are worried about the number of people wanting separation in Alberta, with out Alberta . liberal government would be nothing, the closer the referendum the more bull s**t they come up with
Danielle Smith for prez of the Toronto Make Me Laughs.
Walter – separatists are only united in their dislike of Ottawa. They don’t know how their new country will work so they each imagine a different utopia. Compromises are not necessary when one is dreaming. Adding more separatists will just make it a bigger cluster.
Alberta separatists should take a look at how Britain is doing economically after Brexit. They continue to assume that they’ll be able to do business with the rest of Canada just like they do now. Not likely. Think of the messiest divorce you’ve ever heard of and double it.
There is a reason why fence post types also get elected.
@JV – BC Resident actually. Born and raised. Just a fan of democracy LOL.
If the people want to vote, let them vote.
You can cry all you want about Canada “owning” them. There is a legal framework to separate, so they clearly don’t own them.
Hey, if the vast minority want to leave, knock yourself out. Donnie said he will welcome you with open pants.
I won’t say anything negative about the mentality of the 18% that would vote for separation…
There’s no way they’ll get 50% plus one, but if the four western provinces united then Canada could get torn apart.
Meanwhile CBC changes it diaper hourly with respect to the upcoming referendum
What paid for nonsense. They think if they keep stacking on fear, and telling Albertans how stupid they are that we will all shirk back under their liberal yoke. Keep this up. New separatists born everyday…
NF – A MAGAtard separatist talking about a kool-aid cult. Now that’s actually funny 🤣
The Freedumb Referendumb
Journalists need to get back to verifying facts in reporting. ‘Some folks say it’s raining, others say its dry.’ How about looking out the window instead of giving us both opinions. Giving equal time to both sides of this issue legitimizes the cranks and elevates them to a position of equal standing. That clearly is not true.
Pro wrestling is more enjoyable with heels and nincompoops, government is not.
Alberta “separation” is a fringe minority being bolstered by a foreign psyop.
The lame stream media efforts are paying off. Lie, lie, lie, just like their master Karl Marx Carnage wants! The liberals need that major tax revenue!
Well at least that guy Parker sold all the info on the haters he duped, so there’s that.
@Les:
Too early for drinking. Chill. Mow the lawn.
They are trying to deceive us
These are the results we expect when our media only polls NDP ridings. Beyond pathetic!
@MSGH
You know what else is expensive? Elections.
When you look at the poll data… you may notice that 1500 people were surveyed (600 in Alberta and 900 in the rest of Canada). Seems a little bias to me.
Who cares if the rest of Canada doesn’t support it. That’s not the question to be answered. (Coming from a BC Resident)
I don’t know about this. Nothing has changed politically to warrant a swing of this nature. Still have no political voice. Still losing billions a year to wealth transfers. Still no pipeline. Still have a disastrous economy.
I know I’m still voting for Alberta Independence in October. Let’s have the vote and see if this is good polling or just corrupt cope
@JV – I see the Kool-aid was refilled for ya… Keep hydrating on it.
@MSGH – I would love to see the same accountability for financials in our Liberal Governemnt. What is our deficit at now?
Lol stupid MAGA separatists. Canada owns your ass b1tch
Reduced to sideline pom pom cheerleaders. You can start deleting your your multiple comment accounts now and get out of your mother’s basement. Your big boy diapers needs replacement.
Good, maybe we can get back to work fighting the US instead of helping them. Idiotic that it was allowed to go this far, but that’s Smith for you…
…not surprising at all…as soon as Albertans apply 30 seconds of critical thinking and reason to the topic, it all falls apart. IF Canada is divisible, so is Alberta. Realizing that means National parks, airports, military bases, prisons,treaty lands, etc,etc is more than enough. The costs of creating a government, army of lawyers, police, border patrol, immigration, welfare,etc would be staggering and traitor smith doesn’t inspire confidence to say the least…Albertans have finally stopped listening to the loud drunk wearing the cowboy hat at the end of the bar..
How much is this stupid referendum going to cost us? A regular Alberta election with just ONE question on ONE ballot costs c. $47 million. This will be TEN questions on TEN ballots all of which will have to be counted by hand (the UCP passed a law outlawing the use of voting machines). That sounds like $470 MILLION.
How many health workers or teachers could we hire for $470 MILLION? How many empty surgical suites in hospitals could we staff?
What is it going to take to get the UCP to spend our taxes on something that actually benefits Albertans instead of flying Smith all over the world to right-wing political events and sending tours around Alberta and posting online surveys every few years trying to get us to agree to dumping our CPP in favour of a UCP or dumping the RCMP in favour of an Alberta police force–all proposals Ralph Klein turned down as too expensive and which Albertans have REPEATEDLY said “NO” to?
Instead of a referendum, let’s have an election!
Yes, yes, polling the potential result of an upcoming legitimate poll.
Oh sweet, more paid for propaganda.
I can’t wait until this media dies.
It’s funny how the separatists think they are going to retain Canadian citizenship. I really think that Carney has compromised as much as he can with Alberta on climate and on pipelines. We should have a pipeline through BC but that has to be approved by the process, the feds can’t just ram it through.
If Canada is so bad, why do most of the seperatists want to retain their Canadian citizenship? Just want to make trouble at voting time, or is it just a saftey net youre seeking?
This, brought to you by the parasites in the east. Trust them, they’ve always known what’s best for western Canadians. Please stop this separatist nonsense and get back to work, the liberals need the next truck load of cash to be on time.
The separatists have not shrunk. It is how the question is asked. “Are you in favour of shaking things up?” is totally different than “Are you ready to leave?” The people who think that Alberta is better off without Canada have not changed.
Why even ask the question should Canada be involved. It was not involved in the Quebec vote…
Ipsos has to be nice and promote Liberal Party policies to keep their government contracts.
With Canada in a recession, secret deals with China including a non-disclosed security agreement. No deal with the USA, Carney just flying around the world living lavishly. The pipeline MOU but there is still a tanker ban on the BC coast. New government censorship bills.
Do you really think some seperatists are saying to themselves “Wow, Canada just keeps getting better and better”
Won’t be long before their lawyer will end up defending a fence post only.