A majority of Albertans would vote to remain in Canada if a separatism referendum were held today, according to a new poll.
At the same time, many are also confused by the wording of the question Premier Danielle Smith proposed to be added to this fall’s provincial referendum.
The Angus Reid Institute survey, conducted from May 22–24 after the province announced it was adding a 10th question to the referendum, found 60 per cent of respondents would vote to stay in Confederation, while 35 per cent said they would support beginning the process of separation.
That needle has barely budged in months: In January, an Ipsos poll found about three in 10 residents supported independence, but a deeper dive revealed that when faced with the costs and consequences of doing so, only half of those interested in separatism are truly committed to following through.
A different poll in February by the Angus Reid Institute also found support for independence amongst the general public was at three in 10.
The additional question will be: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
University of Saskatchewan public policy political analyst Ken Coates said the question carries significant consequences and should not be taken lightly.
“The whole matter of separation is a fundamental question about the future of the province and the future of the country — your standard of living, your quality of life, a whole bunch of things,” Coates said.
“You don’t jump into that tomorrow.”
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Angus Reid said while Smith explained the 37-word question was designed to “appease both sides of the debate,” 51 per cent of respondents said they found the question confusing and 56 per cent said they were dissatisfied with how Smith has handled the issue.
The criticism came from nearly all NDP voters (86 per cent), Angus Reid said — but also notably from nearly one-third (28 per cent) of past UCP voters — a significant erosion within her own base.
Coates said he believes the premier’s approach to the issue is reasonable.
Despite the apparent support for staying in Canada, the new Angus Reid poll suggests uncertainty among voters.
The numbers varied more depending on where the respondent lives, their age and gender, and how their political affiliations lie.
Men were more likely (39 per cent) to support leaving Alberta than women (31 per cent.) The older the respondent, the more likely they were to support beginning the separation process.
People who live in Edmonton were 73 per cent in support voting to stay in Canada, while in Calgary that number dropped to 58 per cent, and in the rest of Alberta is was an event split of 48 per cent for and against, with a few people undecided.
Perhaps not surprising, the numbers contrasted sharply depending on if a respondent voted for the right-leaning UCP or the left-leaning NDP.
NDP supporters were 90 per cent against leaving/in support of staying in Canada, with just seven per cent in support of separation and a handful unsure.
UCP supporters, meanwhile, were 64 per cent in support of leaving Canada, 30 per cent in favor of staying, and 8.5 per cent were unsure.
Angus Reid’s split is most dramatic by separation intent: those who would vote to stay overwhelmingly disapprove (79 per cent poorly), while those who would vote to leave are equally critical from the opposite direction (85 per cent poorly), feeling Smith isn’t truly on the separatists’ side.
Coates said the average level of support for separation reflected in the poll is notable.
“The thought that 30 per cent — that one people, in one province would want out of Confederation, other than Quebec, where it’s become the norm — is absolutely staggering.
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“Canadians should be distressed.”
Angus Reid said Albertans have a range of options on why Smith proposed adding the question.
A majority of Albertans (58 per cent) agree Smith’s only reason for calling the referendum is to appease the separatists within the UCP.
Past NDP voters agree in large numbers (84 per cent), while most past UCP voters disagree (55 per cent). Even so, Angus Reid said one-third of UCP voters (33 per cent) are sympathetic to the view that the referendum was a political calculation to manage her party’s separatist wing.
When asked what Smith actually wants, 40 per cent of Albertans said she doesn’t care what happens as long as she stays in power — with just 31 per cent believing she genuinely wants Alberta to remain in Canada.
The Angus Reid Institute said this latest polling indicates many people have already made up their minds and won’t be swayed — supporters of both sides of the issue report strong commitment to their positions, with 75 to 78 per cent saying they are absolutely or mostly committed to their referendum vote choice.
Last week, the premier said with so many Albertans weighing in on the issue, it was time to put it to a vote and move on.
Smith said she would honour the referendum’s outcome and hopes separatist advocates “would honour the outcome as well.”
But Angus Reid said most Albertans are skeptical.
Seven in 10 (69 per cent) believe that if Albertans vote “No” to independence in October, separatists will never accept the result. Those who would themselves vote to stay in Canada are even more convinced of this (83 per cent).
Among those who would vote to leave Canada in a hypothetical separation referendum, opinion is split — 41 per cent agree separatists would reject a loss, while 45 per cent believe they would accept it.
Campaigns on both sides of the question began over the weekend, with voters being urged to cast their ballots on Oct. 19.
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from May 22–24, 2026, among a randomized sample of 800 Albertan adults. Respondents are drawn from the Angus Reid Forum. This sample was weighted to be representative of adults provincewide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/– 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
These are the exact same kind of tricks and smokescreens the Brexiteers used to confuse the masses – really over the top questions. This question needs to be a CLEAR yes or no answer and not all this wordsmithing to try and confuse everyone.
If you are ‘too chicken’ to use your real name then your comment is worthless.
Maybe you should ask why people are confused by this question. It is written as 2 questions in one and cannot be answered as yes or no. If I answer yes to this question as it is posed, does that read as I want to stay in Canada or does it read that I want a referendum on staying? It is very ambiguous. And what about the other 9 questions on the referendum? Those seem to be ignored and people really have not been educated on what they are and/or the impact/ outcomes from the voting.
Montrose – Canada already did vote… and they voted Liberal. Again
Jack – You mean Liberal politicians like Jean Cretien who promoted the oil sands and made it what it is today? The Liberal government basically transformed the Alberta oil sands into an economic powerhouse by introducing favorable tax regimes and fast tracking capital write offs in the 1996 federal budget. This support ignited an unprecedented investment boom and established the oil sands as a national strategic priority. Maybe you should learn more about the history of Alberta before you go on the internet and pretend to be smart hey Jack
Why isn’t it all of Canada voting?
Separation means No longer using Canadian Money, Canadian Federal Government no longer give any support and Many more FACTORS involved with it, so it is the debate very carefully needed to understand before voting.
The many confused are all the “YOUNG ONES” who have not lived long enough to remember what politicians like Pierre Trudeau, Chretian, Martin, Mulroney, ALL BORN IN QUEBEC and Justin Trudeau have ALL DONE to Alberta all these years. Older albertans know and remember all the financial abuse that we have had to deal with and MOST OF ALL CONTROL of all our businesses and indirectly our lives – look at how long it has taken to build the pipeline and how this government continues to want to shut down our oil and gas industry all these years (and taken money for a huge number of years by Pierre Trudeau so he could help finance Quebec). Really though? “Resource Redistribution & Revenue: Trudeau aimed to redistribute some of the booming oil wealth from Western Canada (primarily Alberta) to help subsidize energy costs in Eastern Canada, which relied heavily on expensive imported oil.” Meaning subsidizing Quebec that bought billions and billions of dollars worth of oil and gas from Saudi Arabia.
Of course we can’t count out Doug Brekfaust who can’t go a single day with out spreading hate and disinformation regarding Eby and First Nations people. The guy is obsessed and clearly delusional
The only logic I see behind this is to make a fuss like Quebec so they get a better deal. However, if they truly want to leave and to try to take a portion of CPP out, then they should really go at it alone – their own currency, military, banking system, etc. I also wonder if the rest of Canada is owed some money back for any major infrastructure or other projects that used Canadian tax payer dollars beyond AB?
If half of the separatists don’t actually believe the logistics would work, which professional analysis supports, why would they vote to leave? Voting for a position you don’t support in practice is entirely illogical. Ottawa sees how angry you are, you have made your point without having to vote for something you don’t actually support.
@ Margaret Alberta doesn’t have near 40MM people.
These idiots voting to leave Canada is the equivalent of a disabled person running into traffic. Think about that. Disabled people initiating decisions that can impact our lives. Ridiculous
These fcking parasites do nothing but lick the boots of these utterly incompetent nincompoop fascist crybabies. Useless to any country
The UCP. was never registered as a separatist party. It has been hijacked by the separatists. If they want to separate start their own party and do it legitimately. This does not pass the smell test. There are 40 million of us who don’t agree with 300k . What happened to majority rule on democracy. Why does this minority get a voice????
At below: I voted conservative. But get mad when both far left and far right kooks like this directly guy below talk about freedom in terms that basically define anarchy. 60% of us real Canadians are middle ground and moderates. Just like far left the far right has no ideal what all their dreams and wishes really mean.
In BC between Eby+his FN Co leaders and Trump, they are both destroying the province.
Lefties get mad when people talk about freedom.
Darcy – Britain is doing so much better outside of the EU that they want to rejoin the EU.
I will never buy into Elbows Up or anything Carney has to say. Alberta is better off outside Canada.
Charles – You mean like the numerous elections held in Canada since 1867? You’re an idiot
“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
Why not make option A – Alberta remains a Province of Canada – binding as well?
Comrade Canrey states a citizen led referendum is anti-Democratic? Does he think freezing bank accounts and admiring basic dictatorships is democratic?
Charles things a referendum on separation is what democracy is all about? No it isn’t, the majority of Albertans wishes are not being recognized- didn’t it disturb him when SHELL shut down their entire huge petrochemical plant project because they refuse to invest anywhere with a separatist movement on the go. Building that plant would have created thousands of jobs, after completion 2000 jobs would have been required.. this movement is hurting the younger generation severely
She is opening a can of worms, she won’t be able to close, best thing that could possibly happen is that her moderate ucp members pushed for a non confidence vote asap
Alberta separatism is like 80% fueled by psyops fueled by foreign oil companies.
And then like 20% feeling like theyre ignored by the feds.
Meanwhile the conservative party has been in power for decades there, and their the ones who have been making all the policies that really affect Albertan’s this whole time. So if you want to be mad at anyone, it should be them.
The actual number is nowhere near 35%, it’s like 6%. Get your facts straight.
The Angus Reid poll shows that Smith’s referendum question does not have the same result as this simpler question. The federal gov’t has to use the Clarity Act to strike down her toxic shenanigans.
I don’t know why people are upset about this vote… this is what a democracy is all about. I think people forgot what democracy looks like cuz we haven’t been practicing it in a long time.
As reality sets in LOL. The Alberta white nationalists/separatists are few, far, and in between compared to the REAL Canadians that want to stay in Canada
Wow the largest cities with the highest numbers of immigrants sway towards wanting to stay in Canada. Surely they want to stay to keep alberta prosperous and not simply to retain their federal handouts… It’s not like they can legally vote for or against separation either way.
I am shocked. I thought there were enough Albertans that wants to separate. I mean that’s what those Alberta Separatist videos created in Netherland said. I’m shocked!
Move over Quebec Canada has a new cry baby
I refuse to back down and bootlick Carney after the disastrous policies of the Liberals the past decade. What damage they did only to flip flop on their policies and blame Trump for their poor choices
Over 60% want to stay in Canada. 35% want to change the way Ottawa treats provinces other than Ontario and Quebec. Less than 18% want to leave Canada. – put the numbers correctly. You are making it look like twice the number of people support leaving than true numbers.
Just like Quebec, there will be those who refuse to admit that the separation movement will end when the vote comes in. I feel sorry for those who cannot face reality.
Looks like Smith has been heard. We do not believe she is for Canada, or Alberta, she – and the UCP – are just for themselves.
The real question should be WHY is this even a question? Could it be that the Federal government has failed most Canadians and this is just the first push back?
Whether your for or against leaving, all scrunity should be placed on Federal government and THEIR policies.
Carney and Trudeau caused this crisis. There too down, Ottawa knows best authoritarianGovt. Is unacceptable to most of Albertans.
Take Danielle Smith and that 30% of losers who want to leave and ship them to Idaho for training. They’ll be ready next time.
Not totally sure how random this sample is. This is people chosen from their forum. People with more political agendas. And then sample was weighted in an attempt to be representative. Separatist support seems to have jumped with this poll of the politically “active” people. Either way, 35% is a lot and should definitely be a concern to the federalists.
nice we are within reach. remember this is just to confirm that a referendum in the future will be binding. if you vote against independence then the feds will simply ignore us as always. this is a no-brainer vote to maje the next referendum binding maybe just maybe the feds will throw us a bone like say a pipeline to the coast. ofcourse there should be a pipeline to the east considering the eaft coast buys from Houston right now abd will rrsume buying from saudi when yhe war calms down. its part of the crazy country we live in rather ship oil up the saint lawrence river from saudi or the us rather then from alberta but there you have it. alberta always loses in Canada just the way it is. goooo carney
the numbers are the other way around ,stop doing power of suggestion liberal news
So much attention, but the Libs, NDP, media and far- LEft losers never seem to say anything about Quebec’s continuous threats.
This isn’t conservative vs liberal this is traitors vs our country.
Get out of here traitors. Go down to the southern states if you want to be intolerant. This is Canada.
Poll taken in Edmonton rest of AB wants out!
The status quo can’t continue or the percentages will continue to shift towards sovereignty. I’m there now.
35% isn’t a majority, let alone a clear one, but it ain’t nothing either! The question of Alberta Independence will never go away until we actually do it. So keep your head up, stay kind, and stay rational. The Liberals and the rest of Canada will do our work for us, and more and more of our neighbors will wake up.
Carney has zero credibility.
Lots of talk by Carney the past year. No results so far.
Hi. On the Angus Reid list and did not get included. Wonder how many other conservatives they excluded. Not surprised, they have to skew the result as usual.
It’d just be Brexit all over again lol
@Doug. Carney flip flops daily it seems to appease you. He has no values, ethics, and spineless.
Just more nonsense.
Like anywhere, 30% of both the far left and right are just kooks. When it finally comes down to it, your middle ground person is the real majority whether it’s a bit left or right of centre.
It’s why PP fail to get elected he too far right and even far left dislike Carney.