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American voters are heading to the polls on Tuesday for the U.S. midterms and many in Ottawa will be watching the results closely for what it means for the future of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and threats against Canada.
Since he took office for his second term in January 2025, Trump has repeatedly escalated his economic attacks against Canada. Democratic candidates have seized on his tariff policies and trade war against Canada, linking them to affordability struggles.
Democrats appear to be surging across the country, with some polls predicting Democratic control of the House of Representatives and the Senate being in play.
However, would anything change for Canada if Democrats sweep both chambers and win the midterms?
While Canada “historically has never been an election issue,” in the U.S., that appears to have changed this year, said University of Ottawa political science professor Emily Regan Wills.
“Canada is an election issue because Trump has made Canada into an enemy. A lot of people are like, why would you antagonize the nice guys?” she said.
Democratic candidates like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Troy Jackson in Maine, have tried to link Trump’s tariffs against Canada with higher costs for American consumers.
“If you’re picking a fight with Canada, you’re the asshole,” El-Sayed told reporters last month.
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But the cloud of uncertainty around Trump’s Canada trade policy is “unlikely” to change even if the Democrats sweep the election, said University of Guelph political science professor Julie Simmons.
The two major sets of tariffs – the Section 232 sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos as well as the sweeping 50 per cent Section 338 tariffs – were imposed via executive order, not Congress.
Trump simply circumvented the U.S. Congress in imposing his tariffs on Canada.
“He can bypass Congress with his use of things like the Trade Expansion Act and the Trade Act of 1930, which have been two tools that he has used thus far. It’s unlikely that that will change,” Simmons said.
While Congress does need to approve any new treaties the U.S. enters, it can do little to curb Trump’s use of executive power to impose tariffs the way he has, Wills said.
Could Trump be impeached?
Trump has signaled he will become more confrontational in executing his agenda in the event of a Democratic sweep.
“I guess I’ll become Mr. Veto,” Trump told the New York Post in a podcast that released on Monday.
“In order to override that veto, the Democrats would have to have two-thirds majority in a vote. It’s unlikely that even if they do take back both the House of Representatives and the Senate, that they would have that kind of a supermajority,” Simmons.
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However, the Democrats do have a big tool in their toolbox in stopping Trump’s agenda.
“A Democratic sweep does put impeachment of Donald Trump on the table,” Wills said.
“However… there’s no guarantee that an impeachment would lead to his removal from office,” she added.
Trump was impeached twice during his first time. First in 2019, for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Later in January 2021, a week before his term ended, for inciting an insurrection.
In both instances, he was not removed from office because of the impeachment. A simple majority in the House is enough to impeach a president, but only a two-thirds vote by the Senate can remove a president from office.
Whether Democrats win both chambers or just one, Canadians should be cautious in assuming they would all be opposed to tariffs, Simmons said.
“We also have to remember that even if Congress were to become Democratic in both houses, we can’t assume that Democratic representatives would want to remove all tariffs,” she said.
“It’s incumbent upon trade negotiators in Canada to think of ways to pitch to their Democratic colleagues across the border ways in which reduced tariffs can somehow be in the interests of American voters and also American business owners,” she said.
It is also likely that Trump could become more hostile, not less, if Republicans lose control of Congress, she said.
“If the Republicans are to lose both houses, that given Mr. Trump’s narratives of the past, we can anticipate that he may turn and blame Canada for those outcomes,” Simmons said.
U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra has said American officials are “closely watching” Canadian politicians for signs of election interference ahead of the midterm elections.
Prime Minister Mark Carney rebutted Hoekstra and said there was “no merit” in the claims that Canada was looking to interfere in American elections.
Americans only act when it profits them so, I don’t believe there will substantive change from the Democrats. Yes, they may eventually roll back Trump’s tariffs but not all. PM Carney will need all of his skill to forge a new trade agreement with the Americans. Remember, that the US has bee buying oil at a discount for years and taking advantage of our lower dollar to obtain our riches. They will continue to do this make no mistake. Don’t forget that the Americans have been raping our forests to build their houses and in face of favourable for Canada trade rulings against them have continued to disregard the billions owed to our forest industry. Be under no illusion. Beware the smiling American. Support our government’s efforts to expand our trade to other nations in order to mitigate our reliance on a market we cannot trust.
Its the same old sh!! sandwich; just a different bread this time. The libs can say all they want about the bread they are offering, its still the same ol filling inside.
But yes it’s up to Carney to get a deal.
That’s not me.
The Democrats are also against Canada’s massive dairy and poultry tariffs. Against Canada building government subsidized vehicles sold in the USA. Against Chinese trans-shipments of steel and aluminum into the USA. Canada dumping cheap lumber into the USA.
No nothing will change.
That’ easy to answer, there will be War and bloodshed
Even if the Democrats win, we will still hate America. No surrender.
There’s no doubt that Trump will get more hostile after the Democrats take both houses. The big question is whether he’ll damage the US and the GOP enough that some GOP senators would join the Democratic senators to convict him if the House impeaches him. I know that’s EXTEMELY unlikely, but it’s a pleasant fantasy.
Eric. The Canadian government could declare Hoekstra persona non grata and boot him out.
I there any way Pete Hoekstra can be expelled From Canada
Carney has achieved zero results!
Not much would change. Carney is doing a great job at staying focused on getting trade deals with other countries as are the other countries eager to get rid of the US since Trump and tariffs. Trump has managed to alienate ALL countries with his tyranny, cruelty and being so evil. Most hated US President in history. What a legacy!
It is so hilarious that Elbows Up Carney Liberals think the Democrats will save them. Hope isn’t a strategy. Democrats are more protectionist than the MAGA regime.
Nothing.
Trump insults others to try to make himself appear superior. His domestic agenda will stall so he will criticize foreign entities instead. Canada will be targeted more in his comments. Carney will effectively parry his unsophisticated, juvenile attacks.
Canadians love it when Carney exposes Trump’s oafishness. Carney’s approval rating will go up.
If Democrats win the midterms, it’ll be proof they cheated. No voter could possibly think policy is more important than ballrooms and golden toilets.
Carney diversification has brought zero results so far. China and India will never replace the USA market, nor will EU.
WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE MIDTERMS, AMERICAN WILL NOT – IF EVER- REGAING THE TRUST IT ONCE HELD.
TRUMP AND THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HAVCE DESTROYED GLOBAL SUPPORT FOR THEIR NATION.
Emily Regan Wills, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, described Canada as a “nice guy.” Is Canada really a nice guy, considering it lives under the shadow of the United States?
Nothing. Because our problems are caused by the liberals. Despite what the east coast b00mers believe.
Democrats are the eqivalent of our Canadian Liberals. Liars and Opportunists. Enough said.
Canadians are really expecting a lot of the Democrats and they maybe very disappointed. Maybe the Democrats will like the money coming in from the tariffs and won’t want to get rid of them. It’s about time Canadians pay more attention to what Carney and this Liberal government is doing to our economy
What changes? Really nothing will. Remember, the Democrats are not known for being big on trade much less free trade. I expect over the next 4 to 6 years they will keep most of the tariffs, while blaming the spiraling down economy on Trump. Just like the Liberals do here in Canada.
Canadians might actually start paying attention to their own government
Doubtful though
Remember when Obozo bromanced Turdeau then canceled keystone xl and liberal voters cheered? Watching libs do a 180 has been hilarious
If there is enough of a majority, and there are enough republicans who feel that Trump needs to be shut down, Congress and the Senate can pass a law to remove Trump’s powers, and with enough of a majority, Trump cannot veto it. – a long shot but possible.
If the US does not remove all tariffs, then what is the point of any ‘free trade’ deal? Free trade is good for everyone.There are exceptions, where free trade means loss of any industry, but it does make the industry more robust. IE: Most shirts are made in the far East. Our clothing industry died because our labour was so expensive. Now the shirts are made by robots, so we do compete. Once capital costs are absorbed, our labour is cheaper. And the jobs of machine maintenance command higher salaries for our workers.
Ben: Carney has indeed spent lots of our money travelling, getting photo ops with other leaders. Promising to export oil and gas, while blocking any expansion of delivery infrastructure. There has been high level negotiations, but no increase in exports.
Tony: It took guts to walk away from a man who would not honour any agreement. The question is why is there any movement to negotiate while under the tariff pressure?
Donna: It was Trump who changed the deal at the last minute. Carney was negotiating in good faith. One can question why he was agreeing to any deal where there was any tariffs.
Stars: you are right, Canada is not an issue, but the high prices on goods caused by tariffs is certainly an issue. Trump has caused prices to rise on goods from almost every country.
For those Americans yelling make Canada the 51st state it will never happen as the Americans are too busy fighting among themselves.
Ben
November 3, 2026 at 8:39 am
Perhaps nothing. That’s why we need to diversify our trade away from the US, which Carney is doing.
Please provide details of this diversification.
All you Canada bashers…GET F&CKED! CANADA IS FAR AND AWAY THE BETTER COUNTRY! USA has become a huge ghetto, a sh*thole. Bunch of p*dophile, g*nocide supporting half breed lunatics.
Perhaps nothing. That’s why we need to diversify our trade away from the US, which Carney is doing.
Go GOP!
Who cares? The Canadian media’s obsession with US politics is crazy
Elbows Up! Never 51. F*ck Trump.
Carney is the one that walked away from the negotiating table like a coward and refuses to provide a counter offer to the USA to consider.
The tariffs will stay on. Trump is POTUS for 2 more years and Carney refuses to negotiate in good faith.
Canadians certainly are not “nice” guys. Lol obviously this was written by a Canadian. For most Americans, Canada is not a ballot box issue in the USA