Trump warns NATO to help secure Strait of Hormuz or face ‘very bad future’

U.S. President Donald Trump had a warning for his NATO allies over the weekend – help the U.S. secure the Strait of Hormuz or suffer a “very bad future” as a consequence of the Iran war and the oil shock.

“It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the Strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there,” Trump told the Financial Times.

“If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.”

The U.S. was hitting Iran “very hard,” Trump said.

“They’ve got nothing left but to make a little trouble in the Strait … these people are beneficiaries and they ought to help us police it,” he said, adding that “China should help too,” citing China’s energy dependence on oil from the Strait of Hormuz.

On Monday, Trump said “numerous countries” had told him they were “on the way” to help the U.S. with the Strait of Hormuz.

“We strongly encourage the other nations to get involved with us and get involved quickly and with great enthusiasm,” he said.

But Trump’s demands have been met with a mixed response from countries around the world, including from U.S. allies.

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Article Five of the NATO charter says an attack against any NATO member will be treated like an attack on the whole alliance, but some experts say NATO allies are unclear on whether this is a NATO war.

“The U.S. administration has demonstrated over the past two weeks that it does not have a clear coherent strategy when it comes to this current conflict,” said Kevin Budning, director of scientific research at the CDA Institute.

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“I don’t think Donald Trump gives his NATO allies any assurances that he has a clear policy,” Budning said, pointing to the changing rationale for why the U.S. launched the military operation.

Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz after the United States and Israel launched attacks against Iran more than two weeks ago, which kicked off an ongoing wave of repeated Iranian strikes across the Middle East and into neighbouring Gulf states.

Several U.S. allies said on Monday they had no immediate plans to send ships to unblock the Strait of Hormuz.

Germany, Spain and Italy were among allies that ruled out participating in any mission in the Gulf, at least for now.

Other countries were more circumspect, with Britain and Denmark saying they would consider ways they might help, but emphasizing a need to de-escalate and avoid getting dragged into the war.

China is noncommittal. France said they help when “circumstances permit.”

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Monday that Britain is working with allies on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but “will not be drawn into the wider war.”

Australia’s Transport Minister Catherine King told Australian Broadcasting Corp. on Monday that “we won’t be sending a ship to the Strait of Hormuz,” although she wasn’t aware of such a request from the U.S.

“We know how incredibly important that is, but that’s not something that we’ve been asked or that we’re contributing to,” King said.

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Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told reporters in Brussels on Monday that while Italy backs reinforcing EU naval missions in the Red Sea, “I don’t think these missions can be expanded to include the Strait of Hormuz.”

Trump also criticized Britain’s response after speaking with Starmer.

“The U.K. might be considered the number one ally … and when I asked for them to come, they didn’t want to come,” Trump told the Financial Times, adding that Britain only offered to send ships after the U.S. had already reduced Iran’s military capabilities.

NATO members states may be walking a fine line, Budning said, trying to not upset Trump.

“You might see some carrots and sticks,” he said.

“I think this is demonstrated in Canada’s policy where it supported the war, but it doesn’t want to intervene in the war. Canada is also considering its (bilateral) relationship with the United States,” he said, pointing to the upcoming trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S.

Both Prime Minister Mark Carney and Defence Minister David McGuinty have said that Canada has no intention of participating in U.S.-led military operations in Iran.

“Canada was not consulted, did not participate, and has no plans to participate in the offensive actions against Iran that are being undertaken by the U.S. and Israel,” a PMO readout stated last week.

Carney had previously said the question around Canada’s potential future involvement is a “fundamental hypothetical,” adding the conflict can spread very broadly.

“One can never categorically rule out participation,” he said during his trip to Australia earlier this month.

Britain’s response, saying they will allow the U.S. to use some of their bases but also not getting drawn into the conflict, is the “worst of both worlds,” said Aurel Braun, a professor of political science and international relations at the University of Toronto.

“If you say that what the United States is doing is a crime, you can’t let them use your bases and say well, yes, but this is only for defensive purposes,” he said.

Instead, he said NATO allies should commit to combating the threat from a potentially nuclear-armed Iran.

“They hit bases in Cyprus. Britain is a NATO member. If they (Iran) get nuclear weapons and they keep increasing range of their missiles, this regime would be a threat to NATO, to shipping and to the health of the international economic community,” he added.

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However, Iranian strikes on NATO targets in the region might draw the alliance into the conflict, said Joseph Varner, a senior fellow with the McDonald-Laurier Institute.

“They fired three ballistic missiles at Turkey, they’ve hit the French naval facilities in the UAE, they struck the camp that had Canadians in Kuwait, they’ve gone after the military bases in Iraq that have both Spanish and Italian forces at them,” he said.

“Whether or not NATO likes this, and whether or not they feel that they were properly consulted, the fact of the matter is that this has been dragged to the doorstep of NATO.”

— With files from Reuters and Associated Press