CAQ leadership race takes shape as LeBel says she won’t run

The race to replace François Legault as leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is beginning to take shape, with another senior cabinet minister confirming she will not enter the contest — and will leave politics altogether.

Education Minister Sonia LeBel announced Monday she will not seek the CAQ leadership and will step away from political life at the end of the current term.

LeBel, 57, first gained prominence as chief prosecutor at the Charbonneau Commission before entering provincial politics. She became a key figure in Legault’s government, serving as Treasury Board president and later as education minister.

In a statement, LeBel said she was touched by calls urging her to run but decided against it after reflection.

“The calls inviting me to enter the race and the many expressions of confidence have deeply moved me,” she said. “After careful reflection and long conversations with my family, my friends and my colleagues, I have come to the conclusion that the time has come for me to withdraw from political life at the end of the current term.”

Political scientist Daniel Béland of McGill University said LeBel would have been a serious contender had she chosen to run.

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“She would have been certainly a significant figure in the leadership race if she had decided to run,” Béland said.

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LeBel’s announcement comes just 24 hours after Municipal Affairs Minister Geneviève Guilbault said she will not run for re-election in the fall, citing a desire to spend more time with her young children.

Béland said Guilbault would have faced significant challenges even if she had pursued the leadership, pointing to fallout from her testimony at the Gallant Commission into the troubled rollout of the SAAQclic system.

“Even if she had wanted to run, there would have been really major obstacles facing her,” he said, adding she has reportedly been warned the commission’s final report will be damaging.

While no one has officially entered the race, several names are circulating. Justice Minister Simon Jolin-Barrette and Economy Minister Christine Fréchette have both been picking up endorsements from CAQ colleagues.

“Simon Jolin-Barrette and Christine Fréchette are the names that are, I think, the most frequently mentioned right now,” Béland said.

Other ministers are also weighing their options. Environment Minister Bernard Drainville said on social media Monday he is reflecting on a possible bid, while Public Security Minister Ian Lafrenière said over the weekend he is also considering it.

If no early election is called, the new leader would become premier for a few months and would inherit a party that is struggling in the polls.

“Turning things around in the matter of months is not easy in politics,” Béland said.

The CAQ says it wants Legault’s successor in place by April and is hoping the new leader can spark a political comeback— similar to the federal Liberals’ turnaround after Mark Carney replaced Justin Trudeau.