Poilievre campaign stop in Okanagan hints region could be in play

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s weekend visit to the Okanagan is a reflection of how important the fast-growing region could be as the clock ticks down to federal election day.

While the lawn signs may be multi-coloured, the Okanagan has mostly gone blue in previous years.

But the Okanagan Valley, traditionally a Conservative stronghold, could see change this year.

1:48 Federal party leaders campaigning in B.C.

“This is a an atypical election where we’re seeing the NDP not polling as strongly as they traditionally do, nor are the Greens polling particularly well,” explained University of the Fraser Valley political scientist Hamish Telford.

“All of that vote is, at the moment, seems to be shifting over to the Liberals, and that’s going to make it a little bit tougher for the Conservatives.”

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One of the seats that may be tougher for the Conservatives to hold on to is in Kelowna.

That’s where former Liberal MP Stephen Fuhr is hoping to repeat his unexpected breakthrough from the 2015 election, when he ousted a longtime Conservative MP.

Conservative Tracy Gray took the riding back in 2019, but it’s a seat that political pundits say could be up for grabs.

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“If the NDP vote collapses, particularly in Kelowna, then maybe, maybe there’s a possibility of the Liberals picking up a seat there,” Telford said.

Another riding that many are watching closely got a lot of attention over the weekend, with a visit from Poilievre.

The Conservative leader’s visit to the riding of South Okanagan was a strategic one, as the Tories try to capitalize on the retirement of longtime NDP MP Richard Cannings.

“That’s the riding that they’re hoping to pick up in the South Okanagan,” Telford said. “Pierre Poilievre’s strategy here is to go after the rural seats held by the NDP.”

While Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh have both touched down in B.C., Poilievre is the first and only federal leader to come to the Okanagan so far in the campaign.

“It’ll be interesting to see if (Carney) makes a stop in Kelowna. If he does, that would suggest that Liberal internal polling thinks that that that riding might be in play,” Telford said.

“But if he just skips over it, perhaps they’re they’re putting that into the Conservative column.”

What columns the seats actually fall into won’t be known until voters have their say on April 28.