Lethbridge-West byelection candidates are pleading with supporters to vote as experts call the race a toss-up at the 11th hour.
Nearly 7,000 residents cast a ballot during the advance voting stage, amounting to 18 per cent of eligible voters, according to Elections Alberta. It is down 10.3 per cent from the 2023 general election, which one expert says could shift the result, though it’s still primarily up in the air.
“Flip a coin. I think at the end of the day, the NDP is a bit more ahead, but given low voter turnout, who knows. John Middleton-Hope, I think, if he does win, you’re going to see that type of guy in cabinet. He’s a former police chief, councillor, law-and-order guy, but I think it’s too close to call with a narrow edge to the NDP,” said Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary.
This uncertainty has left the front-running candidates urging their voters to hit the polls.
“Obviously the weather has turned. We just encourage everybody to try to get out and vote as best you can. We’re trying to get people out to vote as well,” said Rob Miyashiro, the NDP candidate.
He says his party has offered rides for those otherwise unable to attend a polling station. Meanwhile, the urgency is the same at the Conservative camp.
“We want people out to vote, we think it’s going to be important for them to get out and vote. It’s their one opportunity to actually have a say in who’s going to be their representative in Lethbridge-West. So, please get out and vote (Wednesday),” said John Middleton-Hope, the UCP candidate.
To also ensure the voters check off their name, each candidate says they are the best choice to ensure the riding is represented in Edmonton.
“People want change and they want common sense and they want somebody in the Legislature that’s going to fight for them, that’s what I’m going to do,” said Middleton-Hope.
Similarly, Miyashiro says his life has been dedicated to the people of Lethbridge.
“I was born and raised in southern Alberta. I’ve been involved in things – you want someone that is actually going to stand up for southern Alberta and for Lethbridge-West, you need to vote for me.”
While this byelection won’t swing the tide of the Legislature, Bratt says the result could offer a glimpse of the future of Alberta politics.
“It’s not going to change the government one way or the other, no matter who wins. But if the NDP loses its beachhead in a small city, that raises concern about them because their path to victory is they’ve got to win places like Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Red Deer, Grand Prairie,” Bratt said.
“If they can’t hold the one seat that they’ve got, then it’s some worrisome. Now, it’s still a byelection, it’s not a general election, but that’s going to be the narrative the NDP lose.”
In fact, Bratt says a New Democrat victory doesn’t mean anything, though a Conservative win is a statement to Naheed Nenshi.
“I think if the NDP win, there’s no story here. It’s a seat they’ve won consistently since 2015, if they win it again, no big deal. But, if the UCP switch it, then it becomes a story because then it’s, is Lethbridge-West really an NDP seat of was it Shannon Phillip’s seat?” Bratt said.
“And what’s this say about Naheed Nenshi? I think it’s a bigger story if the UCP win it and it’s going to be close, one way or the other.”
Global News reached out to Layton Veverka, the Alberta Party candidate, but he was unavailable for comment.